Would you believe...

...I have 6 RttR horses running this week? Six! That's never happened before. Seeing as how you can only have 5 active horses at a time, I'm actually going to have to boot one of the poor things to the side. What a weekend this is working up to be (though it would be pretty hard to beat the double punch that was Big Brown and Curlin last week)! Let's start with the race which actually has none of my runners in it:

Santa Anita Derby

If sythetic tracks are supposed to be "all weather" why are the majority of them in relatively rainless areas such as Southern California and Arizona? No matter. Any horse who makes his name running on them, no matter how good, will always be suspect in the minds of Derby prognosticators until they actually run a time or two on real dirt. One of the few in this field to have done so and comport himself well is Yankee Bravo (Yankee Gentlemen-Vicky Jane, by Royal Academy). I thought enough of this guy after his strong showing behind Pyro and My Pal Charlie in the Louisiana Derby that I included him in my stable's second round draft. He's something of a closer, and the pace is likely to be hot up front in this race. Although no one has yet managed to tire the speedy Californian's he'll be facing today, it has to happen sometime; and today is just as likely as any other for them to finally bend to the inevitable and get taken from behind.

Among the confirmed speedsters are major Derby contenders Bob Black Jack, El Gato Malo and Colonel John. The latter two hooked up their last time out to fill the exacta of the Sham Stakes. Colonel John (Tiznow-Sweet Damsel, Turkoman) was the easy victor in that one, but he also got the best of the running. He put in a bullet 6f in 1:10 and change earlier this week and looks snazzy. Meanwhile, El Gato Malo (El Corredor-One Bad Cat, by Mountain Cat) was forced wide and then wavered through the stretch. I thought he was the better horse before the race, and if he can keep his wits about him this time I think he may still be. A Hair perhaps devides the False and True. . . so too these colts.

Bob Black Jack (Stormy Jack-Molly's Prospector, by Native Prospector) surprised me in the San Felipe by actually managing the whole 1 and 1/16 distance to hang on for third, but he was in no way the equal of eventual winner and place horses Georgie Boy and Gayego. He held, but just barely. I don't think the added sixteenth of this race will give him any assistance.

Coast Guard (Stormy Atlantic-Vassar, by Royal Academy) was, at one point, also a major Derby contender, but his 8th place finish behind Autism Awareness in the El Camino Real Derby put that pretty much out of everyone's minds. However, that was his sole start on "real" dirt. Prior to that he was 1st or 2nd in every start on synthetic track, including a not to be ignored placing behind Crown of Thorns in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

I'm not too enthralled with the others, but I'm going to keep my eye on Meetingwithdestiny, who just broke his maiden going 1 mile and 1/16 on synthetic track; which came as a nose victory over Screen to Screen. The latter, you may remember, recently finished a not unimpressive second to Liberty Bull in the WinStar Derby.

1. Yankee Bravo
2. Colonel John
3. El Gato Malo

Wood Memorial

Ooh, this is gonna be a toughie. I've got 4 horses in this race, and not a one of them but has something to prove. Also, it's hard to know what to do with all the colts who made their previous
start in the Gotham Stakes. With the fog the way it was, we don't really know how any of the horses performed there. Were those who finished up the track just beaten or was there some crowding on the backstretch that impeded them? Could their performances be blamed on the wet track or was it just a case of lower class horses getting smacked around by their betters? What does it mean that Visionaire has left the field? Arrrgggghhhh!!!! So many variables.

Texas Wildcatter (Monarchos-Mike's Wildcat, by Forest Wildcat) was just nipped at the wire by the late closing Visionaire in the muddy Gotham, and for once we might give real weight to the idea that he didn't see the eventual winner galloping ghostlike out of the mist. There's some real speed in this race and I think it might set things up perfectly for him this time. Fourth in the Gotham was Roman Emperor (Empire Maker-Lady Melesi, by Colonial Affair), but at 9+ lengths behind the top two he might as well have been in a different race. Prior to that mudbath he was a close second behind Barrier Reef (hey, what ever happened to him?) in the Whirlaway and 3rd in the Count Fleet behind the since then discredited Giant Moon and Elysium Fields. I'd love to play him, but he honestly hasn't won anything since December.

And then there's Giant Moon (Giant's Causeway-Moonlightandbeauty, by Capote). Can we throw out the Gotham? If so, why? Because of the slop? It looks to drizzle this Saturday, but he's won before on "good" tracks. Because of Visionaire? That's no longer a factor. Because of the pace? What pace? We couldn't even see the pace! There's sure to be some hot horses this time out to tangle with, with Court Vision's rabbity stablemate Inner Light and the oh so recently deposed War Pass being chief among his competitors. I honestly don't know what to do about this guy. Do I just throw out the last race? I thought so much of him before. But that worries me because I'm afraid I'm just partial, emotionally tied down.

The worst thing one can do in handicapping is like a horse.

Coming to New York after his embarrassing finish in the Tampa Bay Derby is former Derby front-runner, War Pass (Cherokee Run-Vue, by Mr. Prospector). I admit, I laughed at his performance in his first stakes of the season. I love to see a favorite taken down a peg or two (I'll laugh my butt off if/when the day of reckoning comes for Big Brown). However, I have to shake my head at the people who dropped him like a stone after that performance. Handicapping is not a game of hot potato. Horses have bad days. War Pass was bothered at the start, and likely confused by feeling dirt fly in his face for the first time in his life. It's entirely possible that this rough experience will turn him off of racing for the future, at least any racing that doesn't involve a completely empty track before his nose. But it's also entirely possible, nay likely, that he'll take the experience and learn from it. Horses are not static creatures. Before his one slip-up this horse had decimated the best of his generation time and again, and I have to admit I like the game champion more now that he's proven himself human...err...horse....you know what I mean.

He's drawn post 5 for this race, so he's bound to have the same problems that he did in Tampa. Either he'll do it Saturday or he'll die.

Court Vision (Gulch-Weekend Storm, Storm Bird) was an uninspiring third behind Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields (who we've recently found was not "all that") in the Fountain of Youth, but he went about 7 wide on the turn to get there. Prior to that he had a close win at this same course and distance, beating Atoned, and before that bested King's Silver Son. Mind you, that was all last year. But I can't help wondering if the FoY was a case of him being taken too far back behind too many horses...and still putting in a credible performance. His post position should keep him clear of trouble today.

Tale of Ekati has not done one thing this year to make me look at him twice. His 6th place finish in the Louisiana Derby is hardly worth note. Anak Nakal is making yet another try of it. He was 7th in the Rebel, 8th in the Fountain of Youth. Yawn. Why do people continue to talk about these hroses?

1. Court Vision
2. War Pass
3. Texas Wildcatter
4. Giant Moon

Strangely enough, that is 100% not the ordering I thought I'd end up with when I began my more in-depth analysis. Sorry Roman Emperor, you're booted from the stable for this week. Don't take it personally, it probably means you'll come home in front and I'll be smacking myself for my stupidity come Sunday.

Ashland Stakes

I'm including this race because a whole bunch of quality fillies have been nominated to the Triple Crown this year, and some of them are in this field. While everyone is wondering exactly what Country Star will do, I'm not all that interested. I'm sure she's trained fine for the race, but when I've got strong recent winners to play with, I tend to ignore those whose last race came 4 months prior. Bsharpsonata has, to my estimation, done nothing wrong this year. Proud Spell has also been very consistent. Absolutley Cindy was stunning in her triumph over the boys, but may have just caught a lucky break. I don't know much about Life is Sweet, whose one claim to fame seems to be her half-sisterhood to Sweet Catomine.

1.Bsharpsonata
2. Proud Spell
3. Absolutely Cindy

In other news

- The King has returned. Curlin apparently wheathered his trip back from Dubai well and has earned himself a well deserved rest in the Belmont barns.