Forget the Derby countdown

Work has unfortunately gotten in the way again and so my idea of profiling one Derby starter per day in the 20 days leading up to the Derby looks to fall flat. However, one of my co-workers will be attending the Derby this year with some friends and asked me for my picks. Mind you, I really don't want to commit myself this early (hey, we've still got the Lexington Stakes!), but I thought I'd give it a whirl anyways. Here's the very simplified explanation I sent to him:

You asked that I provide some good picks for the Derby/Oaks. I've tried to put in both logical and fun choices (because people rarely bet the Derby sensibly, and usually lose when they do). Finally, I've listed some of the horses that will be played up and bring in low odds (meaning a low payout if they win), but who I definitely don't think are worth a $2 ticket.

Kentucky Derby-

Sensible Choices:

Pyro- This is my Derby horse. Although he finished 10th last weekend in the Bluegrass Stakes, I still love him. I love him almost more now as he won't be going into the race as the favorite. I am willing to throw out his last race and say he didn't like the synthetic track.

Colonel John- This is my #2 horse. The only thing he hasn't done this spring is run on traditional dirt (which is the Derby surface), but he runs as if the switch won't bother him.

Z Fortune- Second in his last race after going very wide on the first turn. I liked this horse months ago before he tailed off in form a bit. He looks to be making a comeback.

Feel good choices:

Eight Belles- This lone filly is still not 100% sure that she'll enter the Derby. If she goes in the Oaks she won't be worth the short price. If she goes in the Derby, she'll make a story of it. This year is the 20th anniversary of Winning Colors' (a famous filly) Derby win.

Recapturetheglory- Twenty years ago the owners and trainer of this horse entered a classy son of Secretariat, named Risen Star, in the Derby. He finished 3rd, but went on to win the Preakness and Belmont and be a real quality colt. His owners bought this horse, and named him, entirely with the idea of once again making a try at the roses.

Tomcito- The Mystery Horse. He's a big stakes winner in Peru and just finished 3rd in his first American stakes race (also, notably, his first start as a three year old). He's won stakes races up to a mile and a half in length (and over older horses) in his own country. The one knock against him is he's going into the Lexington Stakes this weekend because he needs to earn some more graded stakes purses before they'll let him into the Derby field. In other words, he may not even make it into the race.

Don't bother betting:

Big Brown- He'll probably be the favorite, but I think he's just a fad.

War Pass- Also going to be one of the favorites. I am all but convinced he cannot run a mile and a quarter, especially not with a hot pace.

Monba- He had a good last race (winning the Bluegrass), but I just don't think he's a traditional dirt horse.


Kentucky Oaks-

Bsharpsonata- I really like this horse. She was a gutsy second her last race out and I think she will only improve off of it.

Ariege- Has never won a stakes on conventional dirt, but I think she has a good chance.

She's All Eltish- I called this horse to win her last race, which was her first stakes performance, and she brought in a good betting price. I'm now a bit sweet on her.

In other news

- We get two periodicals delivered at my house and in one of them this week Jerry Bailey was interviewed. Strangely enough, not the subscription you would have expected.

- Eight Belles. Will she or won't she? Come on, it's the Derby. Nothing gets owners' blood boiling like the Derby. I'm thinking yes, though I'll hold off on saying whether or not I think it's a good idea.