Doing the Derby

By now, we're all familiar with the horses. We're scrutinizing their last works with squinting, suspicious eyes. We're holding our breaths for the post position draw. And we're planning our bets, which oftentimes have little or nothing to do with how we actually think (or hope) the race will turn out. Now it's time to examine some questions which have come up in my analysis recently and may, or may not, have any actual effect on the race.

1. What happened in the Bluegrass?

This has got to have been the defining race of the entire prep season. No fewer than 6 Derby entrants were featured in it, and never has so poor an effort been expended by so many good horses. How much credit do you give to the synthetic surfaces? We already know that some horses raised on fake dirt show problems adjusting to the real thing (and what a world have we humans created where our thoroughbreds no longer know how to run on dirt?), but can we really excuse so many dirt performers who spinned their wheels their first time out on the plastic? Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Pyro, and Visionaire all put in surprisingly bad performances in their first steps on a synthetic track. Meanwhile turf specialist Cowboy Cal and sometime synthetic winner Monba all but collectively wired the field.

If just one good horse put in a bad performance, you could question whether or not to throw out the race with the claim that the change in track affected him. But here we're dealing with a mass defection of the dirt running ranks. Combine that with the apparent brilliance of the two questionable dirt performers. What we're dealing with here does not appear to be just one or two horses not taking to the track, but rather a general change in the quality of the track as a whole. A change dramatically away from that of the Derby.

In other words, I think you have to throw out the Bluegrass. No, not just for Pyro, and not just because my natural affection for that horse makes me want to throw it out. Throw it out for everyone. I might (might) give Monba credit for his performance in it, because we've been seeing a lot of synthetic running horses transfer well to the dirt this year, but everyone else gets it wiped from their slate. The Bluegrass, essentially, has been Black-carded.

So what does that mean? It means Pyro still looks very good. It means Visionaire's Gotham still looks strong. It means Cool Coal Man is still a classy Mineshaft colt running comfortably under the radar. It means Cowboy Cal is still a grass horse. Monba...well...he gets props for having a darn excellent work over the Keenland surface.

2. What factor is the 2007 Breeder's Cup Juvenile?

Generally, I try to ignore a horse's 2-year old career when I'm handicapping the Derby (what happens at two, stays at two). However, it occurred to me yesterday, as I was pouring over past performance sheets, that only three hardy 2007 BCJ veterans have made it to the Derby gates this year. Only three of the 11 horses who, last year, were thought to be the cream of their crop. Pyro, Tale of Ekati, and Z Humor. Why is this important? Two reasons.

First, the BCJ is a high energy, high stress race, full of classy competition. Very rarely in a horse's life will he be thrust into a gate jammed full of the very best horses of his generation, especially in connection with a media frenzy. If the horse lasts past his 2 year old career, the next time he's likely to see anything similar is when heading towards the Derby. So, you could say the BCJ is something of a crucible for testing young thoroughbreds for Derby savvy. Similar to having a junior in high school take college entrance exams once with the idea of putting them into prep classes over the summer and having them re-take the test later on. Doing that teaches a kid how to take a grueling test; similarly, the BCJ could serve as significant preparation for the insanity which is the first Saturday in May.

Secondly, because the last BCJ was contested in the slop.

3. What's the weather like?

Current prediction for Louisville this Saturday? Scattered thunderstorms, with the same forecast for Oaks day as well. So, who's got the mudder cred? Well, Pyro is the only one of the three remaining BCJ entries to have finished in the money in that race, placing a closing second to War Pass. Ten of the 20 entrants have never seen a puddle in their lives. Visionaire recently proved he relished wet going in his Gotham win. Smooth Air has won both times his feet have touched an off track.

You can't just assume that a horse that's never run in mud will perform poorly, just like you can't assume that horses who have never run on dirt or synthetics will automatically have problems when they switch tracks. However, by watching a horse's work schedule, and closely examining his races, sometimes you can get an idea when a horse doesn't like "change".

One horse in the Derby field who doesn't seem to be phased by change is Big Brown. Turf races, dirt races, races switched to dirt from a waterlogged turf course...he seems to have done it all. Colonel John, though he's never been off of rubber running surfaces has trained so magnificently over the Churchill Down's dirt track that I have a feeling that he'll stride just as stoically upon a wet surface. Bob Black Jack, meanwhile, I have the suspicion likes his tracks fast and fake; though I'd be hard pressed to put my finger on my exact reasoning.

4. Who's your daddy?

Much has been made about which horses traditionally have the breeding to run the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby. Basically, this comes down to a question of whether (1) their sires raced successfully at this classic distance, (2) whether their sires have produced horses that successfully ran the classic distances and (3) barring any help from the stallion's quarter, whether the damsire has any distance 'bottom' to offer his grandchildren (note for n00bs- in horses sire=dad, dam=mom, grandsire=dad's father, damsire=mom's father, granddam=mom's mother...the sire's mother doesn't really have a specific term...and no, I don't know why). So, who has a classic distance running pedigree in this field? Which, if the euphemism may be abused, can "go all the way"?

Colonel John's sire, Tiznow, is the only 2 time winner of the mile and a quarter Breeder's Cup Classic, and Colonel John's damsire is Turkoman, another producer of route running offspring; so he's got both sides of the pedigree covered. Monba's sire, Maria's Mon, is often looked at as a producer of grass horses like himself, but already has one representative Derby winning son in Monarchos. Anak Nakal is a son of Victory Gallop (who was second, second and first respectively in his Triple Crown races).

Adriano, as a son of A.P. Indy and a grandson of Seattle Slew, has got the pedigree on the top side, although his dam, being by Mr. Prospector, is a bit heavy on the sprinting side. Cool Coal Man is a son of Mineshaft (and thus also a grandson of A.P.Indy). Although Mineshaft is relatively new to the breeding business, he went the mile and a quarter with style during his own career. Pyro, a son of Pulpit and another A.P. Indy grandson, also appears to have distance covered by both ends of his pedigree.

Court Vision, although descending from traditional sprinting lines on both the top (Mr. Prospector) and bottom (his dam Weekend Storm coming ultimately from the Northern Dancer sireline), his sire was Gulch, who also sired previous Derby winner Thunder Gulch out of a similar Northern Dancer line mare. Tale of Ekati is by Tale of the Cat who, though a fairly recent sire, looks to produce quality sprinters in the line of his own sire Storm Cat, however, Tale of Ekati is backed up on the underside by his Japanese bred mother, Silent Beauty, and her sire and classic distance runner, Sunday Silence.

Who shouldn't, based upon a pure pedigree analysis, run up to snuff beyond 9 furlongs?

Big Brown's sire Boundary is known primarily for sprinters; as is Gayego's sire Gilded Time and Visionaire's sire Grand Slam. None of these three horses have what I would consider a "strong underbelly", meaning distance running support on their dam's side.

Another thing to consider breeding wise is the representation of certain sire lines in Derby winners, which was discussed at length by one of my fellow bloggers. Essentially, two lines which have underproduced in Derby winners, based upon their representation of descendants in the Derby, are Northern Dancer and Damascus. There's lots of Northern Dancer line horses in this years Derby (he's kind of hard to escape in North American racing), but only one horse so thoroughly combines both the "Northern Dancer bounce" and the "Damascus curse" that I would consider dropping him from my lineup based upon this one determining factor (if I didn't already hate his guts, that is). Big Brown in inbred 3x3 to Northern Dancer and 3x4 to Damscus; and that's more than enough to convince me.

In other news

-Post positions for the Oaks have been decided and odds are finalizing:

1. Golden Doc A 12-1
2. Absolutely Cindy 20-1
3. Awesome Chic 20-1
4. Elusive Lady 30-1
5. Rasierra 50-1
6. Country Star 4-1
7. Little Belle 8-1
8. Proud Spell 7-2
9. A To The Croft 20-1
10. Bsharpsonata 6-1
11. Pure Clan 6-1
12. Eight Belles 5-2 (To Be Scratched?)