Bluegrass Stakes
For the first 10 years or so of my horse racing obsession (approximately years 8-18) I used the Bluegrass as my lodestone. Almost invariably, my favorite for the Derby was determined by who won the Bluegrass Stakes several weeks before the big day. Why? No real reason. I mean, it worked for Strike the Gold...and that was about it. I'll never forget the first Bluegrass I watched on television; it was won by Pistols and Roses that year, a beautiful stocky grey who never went on to do much of anything spectacular. Clearly, winning the Bluegrass is not a great determiner of greatness. However, this year I may be forced to look to its winner again for my Derby pick.
Pyro (Pulpit-Wild Vision, by Wild Again) has done nothing wrong this year. Where his chief rival at two, War Pass, embarrased himself in the Tampa Bay and came back to only hold on for second in the Wood, Pyro has proven a winner twice out. Others may turn up their noses at the slow pace of his races, at the relative quality of his opponents, at his less than impressive Beyers; however, I am not one of those people. He has won with ease and class his last two times out, and the switch to synthetic track is unlikely to hinder him. He warms up the mighty Curlin in his workouts (or perhaps it's the other way around?). The only reason I would have for not putting him on top would be my sneaking suspicion that I (if I were a trainer, that is) might want to take this race easy with my star colt and/or try something novel (like sending him to the front early) to test his versatility. If Pyro wins tomorrow he will be my Derby horse. If he finishes anywhere second through fourth tomorrow, I'll probably like him even better, and he'll still be my Derby horse. If he finishes out of the money I'll blink, shake my head in confusion, and seriously reconsider all the time I waste updating this blog.
Cool Coal Man (Mineshaft-Coral Sea, by Rubiano) looked good his last time out winning the Fountain of Youth, but seeing as how it was over the likes of the now less than stellar Elysium Fields and the questionable Court Vision, his stock has lessened considerably. I went back to look at the video, to see if maybe it looked like he was tiring at the end, and the answer is...not really.
Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway-Texas Tammy, by Stirke the Gold) is a turf horse making his first attempt at synthetic track. I liked Why Tonto's performance in the Hallendale Beach, and as such I can't help to be impressed by Cal's placing in that race. However, I feel he'll be hurt by the inside post, and may not take to the track either.
Big Truck (Hook and Ladder-Just a Ginny, by Go For Gin) has been driving his way up the Derby turnpike recently, with a clean win over Atoned (and, incidentally, a little horse named War Pass) in the Tampa Bay Derby, and a strong second place behind Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes before that. Mind you, both of those two horses have recently come into question as true contenders.
Halo Najib (Halo's Image-Najibe's Wish, by Sword Dance) was second to Adriano in the Lane's End Stakes recently, proving that my earlier assessment of him was a bit hasty. He's 2-1-0 in three tries on polytrack and, though I don't think he would be a winner in Pyro's company, I could easily see him rounding out the finish.
Stevil (Maria's Mon-Company Storm, by Storm Creek) was apparently entered as an anti-rabbit to deal with Pyro. His connections are quoted as saying:
[T]his is going to be the tortoise theory. We’re going to put him [Stevil] right in front of Pyro, and he’s not going to let Pyro pass him.
Seeing as how Stevil was 5th last out behind Pyro in the Louisiana Derby, one wonders why they didn't employ such strategies back then. Oh yeah, it's because Pyro was too busy kicking Stevil's behind to notice any such interference.
Last out, Monba (Maria's Mon-Hamba, by Easy Goer) was 12th in the Fountain of Youth, a dismal 40 lengths behind eventual winner Cool Coal Man. He's been an indifferent performer on synthetic track in the past. Will someone please get this colt some grass to run on? Miner's Claim (Mineshaft-Sapphire N' Silk, by Pleasant Tap) is something of a synthetic specialist and was second by a neck behind Big Glen in his first stakes try. Before that, he was unbeaten. Kentucky Bear (Mr. Greely-Tate, by Afleet) was 7th in the Florida Derby and a mainden winner at 1 mile before that.
Visionaire (Grand Slam-Scarlet Tango, by French Deputy) has been one of my babies since near the beginning. He literally came out of nowhere to nip Texas Wildcatter by a nose in the sloppy Gotham. In the Risen Star before that he was boxed in a bit, but finished strong and looked good coming in third behind Pyro. I really like this horse, but I'm really not sure if this is his race. The Gotham was and he put out all the stops for it, but I worry that maybe that was his peak, that maybe that dramatic closing gallop out of the fog was a little tiring for him.
Finally, Medjool (Monarchos) proved me right in his last race out when he went from being only maiden winner to finishing 3rd behind Adriano and Halo Najib in the Lane's End Stakes after being held 6 wide on the turn. His record is now 1-3-2 from 7, and even his maiden races have him finishing in the money with the likes of Coast Guard, Tres Borrachos, and Colonel John (who you may remember from last week when he vaulted himself to the top of the pre-Derby standings). I really, really like this horse. I really, really like that he's 30-1. I really, really can't back him with this much proven class in the race.
1. Pyro
2. Halo Najib
3. Visionaire
4. Medjool
This one was a seriously tough call. If I were the betting sort I'd put Medjool across the board, but I don't know what else I'd do.
Arkansas Derby
In recent years, this prep has given us both Lawyer Ron and Curlin, and has found its place amoung the legitimate final Derby preps. This year, the majority of heavy hitters appear to have gone elsewhere, but there's still a significant contingent of real horses to get me excited.
Blackberry Road (Gone West-Strawberry Reasno, by Strawberry Road) has yet to show me anything...ever. He was fourth last out in the Louisiana Derby, behind Pyro, My Pal Charlie (who he faces again today) and Yankee Bravo (who tanked out west last weekend). He has not won a race since June of 2007. Sorry, not interested.
Gayego (Gilded Time-Devil's Lake, by Lost Code) made a name for himself out west by finishing 2nd in the San Felipe behind the now sidelined Georgie Boy. Not too shabby for his first time out around two turns. He's 2-2-0 in 4 lifetime, but this will be his first time on real dirt. Golden Yank (Yankee Gentlement-Golden Charm, by Strike the Gold) was 4th in the Rebel and 3rd in the Delta Jackpot before that. Ho hum.
Liberty Bull (Holy Bull-Lasting Sensation, by Dehere) came back from a disappointing dead heat third place behind Denis of Cork and Sierra Sunset in the Southwest to win the WinStar Derby impressively. One of the two horses that beat him in the Southwest went on to flop, but the other put in a nice win before bowing out due to injuries. Prior to all this Liberty Bull caught my eye in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Let's see if he made a good choice in skipping his daddy's titular race this weekend.
Z Fortune (Siphon-Fortunate Faith, by Fortunate Prospect) really disappointed me by his 5th place in the Rebel. He had looked the best of the rest finishing second behind Pyro's impressive Risen Star charge, and in fact I had entered him in my original RttR stable based entirely on his win in the Lecomte Stakes. Can I just throw out that last race? I really didn't see any reason to excuse his bland performance.
My Pal Charlie completely vindicated my undying affection for Indian Charlie (Shahalo, by Halo) offspring this year with his strong second place behind Pyro in the Louisiana Derby. The handicapers comments say it all "No match; game second." Take the monster Pyro out of that last race, and I'd have no reason to doubt Charlie's performance here today.
1. My Pal Charlie
2. Liberty Bull
3. Z Fortune
Holy Bull Stakes
And finally we have the chaff. Couldn't make it with the big boys, but still need the graded earnings? Try the Holy Bull. With several maiden winners and a couple allowance specialists filling the field, there looks to be little challenge to any of the traditional Derby hopefuls in this race.
Hey Burn is making a quick turn around after his diappointing 4th in the Florida Derby just two weeks ago. There's no way this horse had any chance of bettering Big Brown on that day, but his connections obviously thought enough of his prior performances (winning back to back allowance races by a combined total of 20.5 lengths) to give him another chance.
Web Gem was second waaaaaay behind War Pass in his 2008 walkover opening race, and followed that race up with a 3rd place in an allowance race. His main claim to glory appears to be that he's a son of Fusaichi Pegasus. I never liked Fu Peg, and seeing him in a pedigree doesn't exactly make me do backflips.
Famous Patriot and Dream Maestro look to improve on their recent maiden wins. Both have won at this distance. Between the two, I give the nudge to Famous Patriot, because his last win seems to have come after a slight change in running style, which may suit him well again on Saturday.
Bipolar Express is a Michigan bred (yay home team!) who was 2nd and 3rd in minor Michigan stakes at two. If nothing else, he wins the prize for coolest name.
1. Famous Patriot
2. Hey Burn
3. Bipolar Express
In other news
- Groundbreaking was held this past week for the new Pinnacle Race Course. I'm already planning an opening day extravaganza.
- Fasig-Tipton got sold. To Dubai interests. Not at all sure what to think about that.
- Revised statistics now seem to show that synthetic tracks may actually be safer than traditional dirt tracks, though not by much. Regardless, this makes everyone who was shaking their heads in surprise after recent reports that the fancy-schmancy all-weather surfaces were no better at keeping horses alive than basic dust feel a little bit better. It certainly has got to have the California racing officials breathing easier, after they committed all their state's tracks to going rubber. Unfortunately, the story doesn't seem to say if the numbers regarding non-fatal injuries have been revised as well.
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