The Ghost of Derby's Past

It's about this time every year that people start to make their tentative Derby predictions. Tentative because everyone wants to see how their favorites perform in their final workouts prior to the big race. Tentative because everyone wants to see the post-position draw before they truly commit. Tentative because you never really know when a horse might bow out to sickness or injury at the last possible moment (look at what happened to War Pass). And tentative because, well, everyone's been burned before.

Ask any number of handicapping fans (mind you, I haven't), what the hardest race in America to pick is, and probably every one would say the Derby. Most of the entrants have never run a full mile and a quarter before, and many never will again. They've probably never faced a field of the size (usually 20 entrants) and caliber that every Derby brings, and they almost certainly never will again. There's questions about the horse taking to the Churchill track (more significant this year with all the synthetic track specialists shipping in), about whether it will handle the travel to Kentucky like a pro, and about handling the heightened pre-Derby stress (trust me, they feel it too, even if just secondhand from their human handlers). It's not the average list of 20 variables, it's a list of twenty variables per horse. How many prior races? How many at 3? What are the speed figures? How did it do in the last race? Who's his daddy and did his daddy go the distance? What about his mom? Wait a minute, this is a filly we're talking about?!

One could go on and on.

So it should be no surprise to anyone reading this that I have never picked a Derby winner. That's right, never. Not in almost 20 years of devoted following of the sport. The only person I know with a worse track record in choosing winners is probably my grandmother-in-law, who in 76 years has never voted for a winning presidential candidate. As such, I thought I'd make all the handicappers out there who are feeling clueless right now feel a lot better by posting my failed picks for Derby's past (those I can remember anyways).

2007- Nobiz Like Showbiz (10th)
2006- Lawyer Ron (12th)
2005- High Limit (20th...god that's embarrassing)
2004- Imperialism (3rd)
2003- Peace Rules (2nd)
2002- Medaglia d'Oro (4th)
2001- Point Given (5th)
2000- War Chant (9th)
1999- Cat Thief (3rd)
1998- Favorite Trick (8th)
1997- Actually, I've no idea...maybe Pulpit? Anyways, didn't win.
1996- Skip Away (12th)
1995- Serena's Song (16th)
1994- Holy Bull (12th)
1993- Prarie Bayou (2nd)
1992- Pistols and Roses/Arazi (hey, so I bought into the superhorse hype...neither won)
1991- Best Pal (2nd)
1990- Pleasant Tap (3rd)....I think...give me a break, I was 11

So do I really have any hopes that Pyro will come in first on Derby day? No, not really. Unless I can somehow convince my grandmother-in-law to put some money on every other horse in the race.

In other news

- Just days after I commented to my husband that the powers that be better darn well award Better Than Honor as Broodmare of the Year, the powers that be acceded. A dam of both last year's speactacular Belmont winning filly Rags To Riches (by A.P. Indy) and the 2006 Belmont winner Jazil (by Seeking the Gold, and now a motion picture star), I can't think of a mare more deserving. The 12-year-old Deputy Minister mare out of the Blushing Groom mare, Blush With Pride, is the only broodmare to ever produce consecutive Belmont winners. And, she has a chance at producing a third since her 3-year old colt Casino Drive (by Mineshaft) has just been shipped over to the States from Japan and is pointing towards a Belmont start by way of the Peter Pan Stakes on May 10th. And if that weren't enough to convince you, her first foal, Teeming (by Storm Cat), was a $1.5 million weanling and a winner at the track. Good job sweetie, it's well deserved.

- Pepper's Pride is making a run for greatness, by attempting to remain undefeated in 16 races. If she's successful in this Saturday's Russell and Helen Foutz Distaff Handicap, run as usual against her fellow New Mexico breds, she will have tied the record of other racing greats in the Sweet Sixteen club, greats including Citation and Cigar. You go girl.