By now, we're all familiar with the horses. We're scrutinizing their last works with squinting, suspicious eyes. We're holding our breaths for the post position draw. And we're planning our bets, which oftentimes have little or nothing to do with how we actually think (or hope) the race will turn out. Now it's time to examine some questions which have come up in my analysis recently and may, or may not, have any actual effect on the race.
1. What happened in the Bluegrass?
This has got to have been the defining race of the entire prep season. No fewer than 6 Derby entrants were featured in it, and never has so poor an effort been expended by so many good horses. How much credit do you give to the synthetic surfaces? We already know that some horses raised on fake dirt show problems adjusting to the real thing (and what a world have we humans created where our thoroughbreds no longer know how to run on dirt?), but can we really excuse so many dirt performers who spinned their wheels their first time out on the plastic? Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Pyro, and Visionaire all put in surprisingly bad performances in their first steps on a synthetic track. Meanwhile turf specialist Cowboy Cal and sometime synthetic winner Monba all but collectively wired the field.
If just one good horse put in a bad performance, you could question whether or not to throw out the race with the claim that the change in track affected him. But here we're dealing with a mass defection of the dirt running ranks. Combine that with the apparent brilliance of the two questionable dirt performers. What we're dealing with here does not appear to be just one or two horses not taking to the track, but rather a general change in the quality of the track as a whole. A change dramatically away from that of the Derby.
In other words, I think you have to throw out the Bluegrass. No, not just for Pyro, and not just because my natural affection for that horse makes me want to throw it out. Throw it out for everyone. I might (might) give Monba credit for his performance in it, because we've been seeing a lot of synthetic running horses transfer well to the dirt this year, but everyone else gets it wiped from their slate. The Bluegrass, essentially, has been Black-carded.
So what does that mean? It means Pyro still looks very good. It means Visionaire's Gotham still looks strong. It means Cool Coal Man is still a classy Mineshaft colt running comfortably under the radar. It means Cowboy Cal is still a grass horse. Monba...well...he gets props for having a darn excellent work over the Keenland surface.
2. What factor is the 2007 Breeder's Cup Juvenile?
Generally, I try to ignore a horse's 2-year old career when I'm handicapping the Derby (what happens at two, stays at two). However, it occurred to me yesterday, as I was pouring over past performance sheets, that only three hardy 2007 BCJ veterans have made it to the Derby gates this year. Only three of the 11 horses who, last year, were thought to be the cream of their crop. Pyro, Tale of Ekati, and Z Humor. Why is this important? Two reasons.
First, the BCJ is a high energy, high stress race, full of classy competition. Very rarely in a horse's life will he be thrust into a gate jammed full of the very best horses of his generation, especially in connection with a media frenzy. If the horse lasts past his 2 year old career, the next time he's likely to see anything similar is when heading towards the Derby. So, you could say the BCJ is something of a crucible for testing young thoroughbreds for Derby savvy. Similar to having a junior in high school take college entrance exams once with the idea of putting them into prep classes over the summer and having them re-take the test later on. Doing that teaches a kid how to take a grueling test; similarly, the BCJ could serve as significant preparation for the insanity which is the first Saturday in May.
Secondly, because the last BCJ was contested in the slop.
3. What's the weather like?
Current prediction for Louisville this Saturday? Scattered thunderstorms, with the same forecast for Oaks day as well. So, who's got the mudder cred? Well, Pyro is the only one of the three remaining BCJ entries to have finished in the money in that race, placing a closing second to War Pass. Ten of the 20 entrants have never seen a puddle in their lives. Visionaire recently proved he relished wet going in his Gotham win. Smooth Air has won both times his feet have touched an off track.
You can't just assume that a horse that's never run in mud will perform poorly, just like you can't assume that horses who have never run on dirt or synthetics will automatically have problems when they switch tracks. However, by watching a horse's work schedule, and closely examining his races, sometimes you can get an idea when a horse doesn't like "change".
One horse in the Derby field who doesn't seem to be phased by change is Big Brown. Turf races, dirt races, races switched to dirt from a waterlogged turf course...he seems to have done it all. Colonel John, though he's never been off of rubber running surfaces has trained so magnificently over the Churchill Down's dirt track that I have a feeling that he'll stride just as stoically upon a wet surface. Bob Black Jack, meanwhile, I have the suspicion likes his tracks fast and fake; though I'd be hard pressed to put my finger on my exact reasoning.
4. Who's your daddy?
Much has been made about which horses traditionally have the breeding to run the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby. Basically, this comes down to a question of whether (1) their sires raced successfully at this classic distance, (2) whether their sires have produced horses that successfully ran the classic distances and (3) barring any help from the stallion's quarter, whether the damsire has any distance 'bottom' to offer his grandchildren (note for n00bs- in horses sire=dad, dam=mom, grandsire=dad's father, damsire=mom's father, granddam=mom's mother...the sire's mother doesn't really have a specific term...and no, I don't know why). So, who has a classic distance running pedigree in this field? Which, if the euphemism may be abused, can "go all the way"?
Colonel John's sire, Tiznow, is the only 2 time winner of the mile and a quarter Breeder's Cup Classic, and Colonel John's damsire is Turkoman, another producer of route running offspring; so he's got both sides of the pedigree covered. Monba's sire, Maria's Mon, is often looked at as a producer of grass horses like himself, but already has one representative Derby winning son in Monarchos. Anak Nakal is a son of Victory Gallop (who was second, second and first respectively in his Triple Crown races).
Adriano, as a son of A.P. Indy and a grandson of Seattle Slew, has got the pedigree on the top side, although his dam, being by Mr. Prospector, is a bit heavy on the sprinting side. Cool Coal Man is a son of Mineshaft (and thus also a grandson of A.P.Indy). Although Mineshaft is relatively new to the breeding business, he went the mile and a quarter with style during his own career. Pyro, a son of Pulpit and another A.P. Indy grandson, also appears to have distance covered by both ends of his pedigree.
Court Vision, although descending from traditional sprinting lines on both the top (Mr. Prospector) and bottom (his dam Weekend Storm coming ultimately from the Northern Dancer sireline), his sire was Gulch, who also sired previous Derby winner Thunder Gulch out of a similar Northern Dancer line mare. Tale of Ekati is by Tale of the Cat who, though a fairly recent sire, looks to produce quality sprinters in the line of his own sire Storm Cat, however, Tale of Ekati is backed up on the underside by his Japanese bred mother, Silent Beauty, and her sire and classic distance runner, Sunday Silence.
Who shouldn't, based upon a pure pedigree analysis, run up to snuff beyond 9 furlongs?
Big Brown's sire Boundary is known primarily for sprinters; as is Gayego's sire Gilded Time and Visionaire's sire Grand Slam. None of these three horses have what I would consider a "strong underbelly", meaning distance running support on their dam's side.
Another thing to consider breeding wise is the representation of certain sire lines in Derby winners, which was discussed at length by one of my fellow bloggers. Essentially, two lines which have underproduced in Derby winners, based upon their representation of descendants in the Derby, are Northern Dancer and Damascus. There's lots of Northern Dancer line horses in this years Derby (he's kind of hard to escape in North American racing), but only one horse so thoroughly combines both the "Northern Dancer bounce" and the "Damascus curse" that I would consider dropping him from my lineup based upon this one determining factor (if I didn't already hate his guts, that is). Big Brown in inbred 3x3 to Northern Dancer and 3x4 to Damscus; and that's more than enough to convince me.
In other news
-Post positions for the Oaks have been decided and odds are finalizing:
1. Golden Doc A 12-1
2. Absolutely Cindy 20-1
3. Awesome Chic 20-1
4. Elusive Lady 30-1
5. Rasierra 50-1
6. Country Star 4-1
7. Little Belle 8-1
8. Proud Spell 7-2
9. A To The Croft 20-1
10. Bsharpsonata 6-1
11. Pure Clan 6-1
12. Eight Belles 5-2 (To Be Scratched?)
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Monday, April 28, 2008
Derby Update
Behindatthebar is skipping the roses. That allows Denis of Cork a chance to avenge himself for his poor Illinois Derby performance.
D-day minus five
The Derby crowd is finally shaping up, both figuratively (we now know that filly Proud Spell is out of the Derby, meaning that lucky Bob Black Jack is now in...Eight Belles is still a question mark) and literally, as the contenders work out over the Louisville track prior to the big day. With Colonel John (5f in 57.8), Big Brown (5f in 58.6), Eight Belles (5 f in 58.2), and Cool Coal Man (4f in 47.4) burning up the training track, it may be easy to ignore the comparatively ho hum performances this morning of my two Asmussen sweeties Pyro (4f in 49 and 4/5) and Z Fortune (4f in 51).
However, I refuse to be cast down by the more precocious morning efforts put out by some Derby hopefuls. I note that Pyro has never been what I'd call a sharp worker. Even his bullet works can hardly carry that title. In fact, just before his impressive Risen Star score, Pyro worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 and 4/5. Certainly nothing to sneeze at, but in no way eye catching. No, I think he's right on track; though Jerry Bailey, who, during the Lexington Stakes broadcast, said that he would be paying very close attention to Pyro's final works, cannot be too pleased with this non-showing combined with the obscurity of his second to last workout (there was so much fog that day that the Keenland clockers could not assign a time to the workout). I would be unsurprised to see this great colt fall in the esteem of that great former jockey by the time the post draw coverage rolls around.
I, too, am in preparations for the Derby. I have purchased my yearly bottle of Woodford Reserve. I am planning the appetizers with great care. My (very classy) emailed invites have gone out.
In other news
-Pepper's Pride made history this weekend; joining Citation, Cigar, Mister Frisky and Hallowed Dreams as the only throughbreds to win 16 races in a row. She looks to break that mark later this summer.
-Harlem Rocker triumphed over the highly regarded (and recent Derby field dropouts) J Be K and Face the Cat. Which, if nothing else, should make one person very happy.
However, I refuse to be cast down by the more precocious morning efforts put out by some Derby hopefuls. I note that Pyro has never been what I'd call a sharp worker. Even his bullet works can hardly carry that title. In fact, just before his impressive Risen Star score, Pyro worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 and 4/5. Certainly nothing to sneeze at, but in no way eye catching. No, I think he's right on track; though Jerry Bailey, who, during the Lexington Stakes broadcast, said that he would be paying very close attention to Pyro's final works, cannot be too pleased with this non-showing combined with the obscurity of his second to last workout (there was so much fog that day that the Keenland clockers could not assign a time to the workout). I would be unsurprised to see this great colt fall in the esteem of that great former jockey by the time the post draw coverage rolls around.
I, too, am in preparations for the Derby. I have purchased my yearly bottle of Woodford Reserve. I am planning the appetizers with great care. My (very classy) emailed invites have gone out.
In other news
-Pepper's Pride made history this weekend; joining Citation, Cigar, Mister Frisky and Hallowed Dreams as the only throughbreds to win 16 races in a row. She looks to break that mark later this summer.
-Harlem Rocker triumphed over the highly regarded (and recent Derby field dropouts) J Be K and Face the Cat. Which, if nothing else, should make one person very happy.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Breakfast of Champions
I'd like to see a show of hands from those who have been playing The BloodHorse's March Into May game (a sort of March Madness type bracket where horse racing greats are pitted against one another in a public opinion poll of ultimate greatness) who did not think from the outset that the final round would come down to a match race between classic American hero Man o' War and ESPN's 35th greatest athlete of the 20th century, Secretariat. As for me, clicking upon the link to the final round this morning, I was not at all surprised. Notably, I could have also predicted that Seattle Slew and Citation would arrange themselves comfortably into the 3rd and 4th positions; and Spectacular Bid was the only choice to surprise me from the round of 8. Ah, if only real March Madness brackets were this easy to predict, I'd be rich.
It's pretty much undisputed among horse racing fans (at least, those in America) that Big Red was the greatest horse of all time, but the question which does often get bandied about is "Which one?" As I stated, ESPN chimed in with their selection, naming only one racehorse to their top 50 athletes and devoting a hour long documentary to Secretariat, despite cries by sports fans that it was a travesty to choose a horse over a human. The Blood Horse staff had their say in Thoroughbred Champions, choosing the great Man o' War instead.
Both colts were clearly the best of their generation. Both won sprint races and routes, on dirt and grass, against older competition, breaking long standing records and making it all look easy. Both were Horse of the year; neither raced at 4 or beyond. Both were regally bred. They were similar in size; both huge- Man o' War reached 16'2 hands and topped the scales at 1125 pouds, while Secretariat was 16'2 hands and 1200 pounds (remind me to explain about 'hands' someday to the n00bs, let's just say for now that both horses were approximately 5 feet 6 inches at the top of their shoulders). Both passed on their greatness into quality stakes winning offspring. And, though probably the least important comparison, the most often remarked upon: they were both striking chestnuts, glowing like firebrands in their respective eras.
So who do I pick? Well, growing up I was a huge Man o' War fan. It's impossible to ignore a horse with a record of 20-1-0 in 21 starts, a horse that once won a race by a hundred lengths, a horse that, though he didn't win the Triple Crown, almost certainly would have if his owner had actually entered him in the Kentucky Derby.
For here was a horse among horses,
Cast in a Titan's mold
And the slant October sunlight
Gilded the living gold*
And Secretariat? He finished with a record of 16-3-1 in 21 starts. He won the Triple Crown, and set the record time for each of its races (though the Preakness time is debateable). His performance in the Belmont stakes, setting the world record for a mile and a half and leaving his opponets 31 lengths in his dust, still stands at the apogee of many sportmen's greatest moments. If he wasn't "th' mostess horse", then certainly he was his reincarnation.
He's a chestnut colt, and he's got a star-
He may be another Man o' War.
The kicker for me is the fact that the two grew up in vastly different times. When Man o' War was foaled in 1917, there were less than 2,000 throroughbred's registered; a testament to the fact that even the racing elite had something else to think about during World War I. In 1970, when Secretariat was foaled, there were more than 10 times that many foals. That makes for significantly greater competition. Additionally, and probably the final determiner, is the question of medication. And by that, I don't mean the generally benign medication associated with Lasix or Bute. Man o' War was raised in a time when drug testing was an impossibility, and was reputed to be one of the largest heroin abusers at the track. Baseball fans shake their heads at comparisons between the steroid pumped sport-stars of today and the baseball greats of yester-year; with horse racing we have the exact opposite problem.
I choose Secretariat. Feel free to argue with me.
* Taken from "Big Red" a poem originally printed in The Blood Horse in 1937, and which I dutifully memorized as a young girl.
Nay, say it aloud--be shameless.
Dream and hope and yearn,
For there's never a man among you
But waits for his return.
Still waiting...
In other news
- Holy cow, did you see Big Brown? Probably not; he was moving that fast. For those too lazy to click the link, he went 5 furlongs in 58.60. Read below for a more in depth understanding of that sort of speed. I might have to reassess my opinion of him.
- Almost forgot to mention Mr. Mistoffelees (Storm Cat-Country Romance, Saint Ballado), who sold for $1.5 million a couple months ago after breezing an eighth of a mile in 10 1/5 at a two-year old in training sale, lived up to his price tage and took his maiden race field by storm. For his racing debut over 4.5 furlongs at Keenland, he started out with an opening quarter mile in 21.48, followed by a four furlong time of 43.89, and drew off to win by 9 1/4 lengths. A budding superstar? Only time will tell.
It's pretty much undisputed among horse racing fans (at least, those in America) that Big Red was the greatest horse of all time, but the question which does often get bandied about is "Which one?" As I stated, ESPN chimed in with their selection, naming only one racehorse to their top 50 athletes and devoting a hour long documentary to Secretariat, despite cries by sports fans that it was a travesty to choose a horse over a human. The Blood Horse staff had their say in Thoroughbred Champions, choosing the great Man o' War instead.
Both colts were clearly the best of their generation. Both won sprint races and routes, on dirt and grass, against older competition, breaking long standing records and making it all look easy. Both were Horse of the year; neither raced at 4 or beyond. Both were regally bred. They were similar in size; both huge- Man o' War reached 16'2 hands and topped the scales at 1125 pouds, while Secretariat was 16'2 hands and 1200 pounds (remind me to explain about 'hands' someday to the n00bs, let's just say for now that both horses were approximately 5 feet 6 inches at the top of their shoulders). Both passed on their greatness into quality stakes winning offspring. And, though probably the least important comparison, the most often remarked upon: they were both striking chestnuts, glowing like firebrands in their respective eras.
So who do I pick? Well, growing up I was a huge Man o' War fan. It's impossible to ignore a horse with a record of 20-1-0 in 21 starts, a horse that once won a race by a hundred lengths, a horse that, though he didn't win the Triple Crown, almost certainly would have if his owner had actually entered him in the Kentucky Derby.
For here was a horse among horses,
Cast in a Titan's mold
And the slant October sunlight
Gilded the living gold*
And Secretariat? He finished with a record of 16-3-1 in 21 starts. He won the Triple Crown, and set the record time for each of its races (though the Preakness time is debateable). His performance in the Belmont stakes, setting the world record for a mile and a half and leaving his opponets 31 lengths in his dust, still stands at the apogee of many sportmen's greatest moments. If he wasn't "th' mostess horse", then certainly he was his reincarnation.
He's a chestnut colt, and he's got a star-
He may be another Man o' War.
The kicker for me is the fact that the two grew up in vastly different times. When Man o' War was foaled in 1917, there were less than 2,000 throroughbred's registered; a testament to the fact that even the racing elite had something else to think about during World War I. In 1970, when Secretariat was foaled, there were more than 10 times that many foals. That makes for significantly greater competition. Additionally, and probably the final determiner, is the question of medication. And by that, I don't mean the generally benign medication associated with Lasix or Bute. Man o' War was raised in a time when drug testing was an impossibility, and was reputed to be one of the largest heroin abusers at the track. Baseball fans shake their heads at comparisons between the steroid pumped sport-stars of today and the baseball greats of yester-year; with horse racing we have the exact opposite problem.
I choose Secretariat. Feel free to argue with me.
* Taken from "Big Red" a poem originally printed in The Blood Horse in 1937, and which I dutifully memorized as a young girl.
Nay, say it aloud--be shameless.
Dream and hope and yearn,
For there's never a man among you
But waits for his return.
Still waiting...
In other news
- Holy cow, did you see Big Brown? Probably not; he was moving that fast. For those too lazy to click the link, he went 5 furlongs in 58.60. Read below for a more in depth understanding of that sort of speed. I might have to reassess my opinion of him.
- Almost forgot to mention Mr. Mistoffelees (Storm Cat-Country Romance, Saint Ballado), who sold for $1.5 million a couple months ago after breezing an eighth of a mile in 10 1/5 at a two-year old in training sale, lived up to his price tage and took his maiden race field by storm. For his racing debut over 4.5 furlongs at Keenland, he started out with an opening quarter mile in 21.48, followed by a four furlong time of 43.89, and drew off to win by 9 1/4 lengths. A budding superstar? Only time will tell.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
The Ghost of Derby's Past
It's about this time every year that people start to make their tentative Derby predictions. Tentative because everyone wants to see how their favorites perform in their final workouts prior to the big race. Tentative because everyone wants to see the post-position draw before they truly commit. Tentative because you never really know when a horse might bow out to sickness or injury at the last possible moment (look at what happened to War Pass). And tentative because, well, everyone's been burned before.
Ask any number of handicapping fans (mind you, I haven't), what the hardest race in America to pick is, and probably every one would say the Derby. Most of the entrants have never run a full mile and a quarter before, and many never will again. They've probably never faced a field of the size (usually 20 entrants) and caliber that every Derby brings, and they almost certainly never will again. There's questions about the horse taking to the Churchill track (more significant this year with all the synthetic track specialists shipping in), about whether it will handle the travel to Kentucky like a pro, and about handling the heightened pre-Derby stress (trust me, they feel it too, even if just secondhand from their human handlers). It's not the average list of 20 variables, it's a list of twenty variables per horse. How many prior races? How many at 3? What are the speed figures? How did it do in the last race? Who's his daddy and did his daddy go the distance? What about his mom? Wait a minute, this is a filly we're talking about?!
One could go on and on.
So it should be no surprise to anyone reading this that I have never picked a Derby winner. That's right, never. Not in almost 20 years of devoted following of the sport. The only person I know with a worse track record in choosing winners is probably my grandmother-in-law, who in 76 years has never voted for a winning presidential candidate. As such, I thought I'd make all the handicappers out there who are feeling clueless right now feel a lot better by posting my failed picks for Derby's past (those I can remember anyways).
2007- Nobiz Like Showbiz (10th)
2006- Lawyer Ron (12th)
2005- High Limit (20th...god that's embarrassing)
2004- Imperialism (3rd)
2003- Peace Rules (2nd)
2002- Medaglia d'Oro (4th)
2001- Point Given (5th)
2000- War Chant (9th)
1999- Cat Thief (3rd)
1998- Favorite Trick (8th)
1997- Actually, I've no idea...maybe Pulpit? Anyways, didn't win.
1996- Skip Away (12th)
1995- Serena's Song (16th)
1994- Holy Bull (12th)
1993- Prarie Bayou (2nd)
1992- Pistols and Roses/Arazi (hey, so I bought into the superhorse hype...neither won)
1991- Best Pal (2nd)
1990- Pleasant Tap (3rd)....I think...give me a break, I was 11
So do I really have any hopes that Pyro will come in first on Derby day? No, not really. Unless I can somehow convince my grandmother-in-law to put some money on every other horse in the race.
In other news
- Just days after I commented to my husband that the powers that be better darn well award Better Than Honor as Broodmare of the Year, the powers that be acceded. A dam of both last year's speactacular Belmont winning filly Rags To Riches (by A.P. Indy) and the 2006 Belmont winner Jazil (by Seeking the Gold, and now a motion picture star), I can't think of a mare more deserving. The 12-year-old Deputy Minister mare out of the Blushing Groom mare, Blush With Pride, is the only broodmare to ever produce consecutive Belmont winners. And, she has a chance at producing a third since her 3-year old colt Casino Drive (by Mineshaft) has just been shipped over to the States from Japan and is pointing towards a Belmont start by way of the Peter Pan Stakes on May 10th. And if that weren't enough to convince you, her first foal, Teeming (by Storm Cat), was a $1.5 million weanling and a winner at the track. Good job sweetie, it's well deserved.
- Pepper's Pride is making a run for greatness, by attempting to remain undefeated in 16 races. If she's successful in this Saturday's Russell and Helen Foutz Distaff Handicap, run as usual against her fellow New Mexico breds, she will have tied the record of other racing greats in the Sweet Sixteen club, greats including Citation and Cigar. You go girl.
Ask any number of handicapping fans (mind you, I haven't), what the hardest race in America to pick is, and probably every one would say the Derby. Most of the entrants have never run a full mile and a quarter before, and many never will again. They've probably never faced a field of the size (usually 20 entrants) and caliber that every Derby brings, and they almost certainly never will again. There's questions about the horse taking to the Churchill track (more significant this year with all the synthetic track specialists shipping in), about whether it will handle the travel to Kentucky like a pro, and about handling the heightened pre-Derby stress (trust me, they feel it too, even if just secondhand from their human handlers). It's not the average list of 20 variables, it's a list of twenty variables per horse. How many prior races? How many at 3? What are the speed figures? How did it do in the last race? Who's his daddy and did his daddy go the distance? What about his mom? Wait a minute, this is a filly we're talking about?!
One could go on and on.
So it should be no surprise to anyone reading this that I have never picked a Derby winner. That's right, never. Not in almost 20 years of devoted following of the sport. The only person I know with a worse track record in choosing winners is probably my grandmother-in-law, who in 76 years has never voted for a winning presidential candidate. As such, I thought I'd make all the handicappers out there who are feeling clueless right now feel a lot better by posting my failed picks for Derby's past (those I can remember anyways).
2007- Nobiz Like Showbiz (10th)
2006- Lawyer Ron (12th)
2005- High Limit (20th...god that's embarrassing)
2004- Imperialism (3rd)
2003- Peace Rules (2nd)
2002- Medaglia d'Oro (4th)
2001- Point Given (5th)
2000- War Chant (9th)
1999- Cat Thief (3rd)
1998- Favorite Trick (8th)
1997- Actually, I've no idea...maybe Pulpit? Anyways, didn't win.
1996- Skip Away (12th)
1995- Serena's Song (16th)
1994- Holy Bull (12th)
1993- Prarie Bayou (2nd)
1992- Pistols and Roses/Arazi (hey, so I bought into the superhorse hype...neither won)
1991- Best Pal (2nd)
1990- Pleasant Tap (3rd)....I think...give me a break, I was 11
So do I really have any hopes that Pyro will come in first on Derby day? No, not really. Unless I can somehow convince my grandmother-in-law to put some money on every other horse in the race.
In other news
- Just days after I commented to my husband that the powers that be better darn well award Better Than Honor as Broodmare of the Year, the powers that be acceded. A dam of both last year's speactacular Belmont winning filly Rags To Riches (by A.P. Indy) and the 2006 Belmont winner Jazil (by Seeking the Gold, and now a motion picture star), I can't think of a mare more deserving. The 12-year-old Deputy Minister mare out of the Blushing Groom mare, Blush With Pride, is the only broodmare to ever produce consecutive Belmont winners. And, she has a chance at producing a third since her 3-year old colt Casino Drive (by Mineshaft) has just been shipped over to the States from Japan and is pointing towards a Belmont start by way of the Peter Pan Stakes on May 10th. And if that weren't enough to convince you, her first foal, Teeming (by Storm Cat), was a $1.5 million weanling and a winner at the track. Good job sweetie, it's well deserved.
- Pepper's Pride is making a run for greatness, by attempting to remain undefeated in 16 races. If she's successful in this Saturday's Russell and Helen Foutz Distaff Handicap, run as usual against her fellow New Mexico breds, she will have tied the record of other racing greats in the Sweet Sixteen club, greats including Citation and Cigar. You go girl.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Horse Racing for Noobs
It was pointed out to me that, for someone trying to get non-racing fans into the sport, my posts are a filled with jargon virtually unreadable to the common man. As such, I've decided to try and provide some layman explanations of terms and subjects which are second nature to horse racing aficionados. So without further ado, here's is the first post in my Horse Racing for Noob's series.
Lesson #1- Horse Racing Math
One of the things I used to find the most difficult to understand about horse racing was the math. I'm a verbally oriented person myself, and though I'd heard the classic joke about figuring out the speed of light in furlongs per fortnight (it's 1,802,617,500,000, by the way), that doesn't really tell you much if you don't know what furlong is. In a room of 6 intelligent folks this past weekend (not counting myself, of course) only one person knew what a furlong was, and he was accused of guessing.
A furlong, very simply, is 1/8 of a mile. Therefore, 8 furlongs (or 8f, as it may sometimes be shortened) is a mile. The American classic distance for a race is a mile and a quarter, or 10 furlongs. The mile and a half length of the Belmont (which is about as far as horses go in the Western hemisphere) is 12 furlongs. The Preakness is an oddball, being a mile and 3/16. That's 9.5 furlongs. Weirded out yet?
Now we bring speed into the picture. When horses work before a race they'll work a certain number of furlongs. Sometimes they'll 'gallop', which, despite being the name for the fastest gait a horse has, actually implies that the horse is going slow and not being pushed. They could also 'breeze', which means they are being encouraged a little, but not pushed into an all out drive. Sometimes they may have a "blowout", which is a fast work where the horse is pushed along a bit, and is often given shortly before an expected race. So how do you know when a horse is actually going fast, either in a race or a work?
Basically, although there is some variation over types of tracks and over the spread of years, it's accepted that a horse is going pretty fast when it runs a furlong in 12 seconds (that's about 37.5 miles per hour). This is somewhat archaically referred to as a "twelve-clip". I don't think people actually say that much anymore, but since I grew up reading books about great horses of the past, I tend to favor an older vocabulary. Most stakes horses should be able to string together at least 4 furlongs in 12, it's when you start getting beyond those distances that things get heavy. Here's the breakdown of times for various racing and working lengths (in minutes and seconds):
4 furlongs- 48 seconds
5 furlongs- 1:00
6 furlongs- 1:12
7 furlongs- 1:24
8 furlongs- 1:36
9 furlongs- 1:48
10 furlongs- 2:00
11 furlongs- 2:12
12 furlongs-2:24
This, of course, should not be taken to mean that the horses actually run 12 seconds every furlong; usually it's less than twelve for some furlongs of the race, more than 12 for others. But basically, if you see horses racing for the half mile pole in a race and the clock stops at 47 "and change" (meaning 47 seconds and a partial second), you know the front runners are not loafing along. If your horse works 4f in 46.60 (as Eight Belles did recently), you know it's blazing along (notably, Eight Belles' trainer thought she might have gone too fast for that workout).
Now, to show you how hard it is to keep this pace up. We'll do this by examining the three very familiar Triple Crown races (run conveniently at 3 different distances). As I said, most good horses can keep up this top speed for a handful of furlongs, but it gets progressively harder the longer you go. The mile and 3/16 Preakness should (if a horse were to keep up a twelve clip the whole time) produce a running time of 1:54. This running time has been equaled or beaten on numerous occasions in the history of the race.
Comparatively, in the 133 years the Kentucky Derby has been run, only 4 horses have ever finished the race with a time of 2:00 flat or better.* The fastest time ever for the Derby was 1:59 and 2/5 seconds (note that, although more sophisticated timers now allow for calculation of running times into the hundredths place, older races could only be determined down to fifths of a second and often people still refer to these divisions when referencing a horse's performance). So, even the fastest time ever for that classic race is only 3/5th's of a second faster than the 2 minute mark. Mind you, this is not the world record performance for a mile and a quarter distance, but given the myriad of difficulties a horse can run into in the Derby, it is by no means unimpressive.
Moving on to the Belmont, which at a mile and a half, is likely to be the longest race an American horse will ever run. The time of 2:24 has only been achieved once in the race, and that performance stands as the world record mark for that distance. The next closest finish for the Belmont is 2:26, meaning that the second best Belmont performer ever would still have finished 2 seconds behind the world record mark.
So what does 2 seconds mean, really? It doesn't seem like that much, but in a sport that measures time by fifths of a second regularly (and even smaller fractions practically), it's a considerable amount. Generally, 1/5th of a second is assumed to equal approximately one horse length. How much is that? Well, it's not an exact measurement. It's supposedly as long as a horse is from nose to tail, basically 8 feet or so. So, if we assume that a horse travels about 5 lengths every second, a horse 2 seconds behind another is cruising along 10 lengths (or 80 feet) behind the leader. More impressively, the horse that actually managed the 2:24 Belmont finished 31 lengths (or 248 feet) in front of the second place horse that day. Man o' War was once reported to have won a race (obviously, over questionable competition) by 100 lengths. Yes, that's 800 feet, or 266 yards (basically, 2 and a half football fields).
So there you have the basic math necessary to understand running times and works. I hope that this has been educational for you all.
* My favorite horse racing trivia trick question is "Name all 4 horses to have finished the Derby in 2 minutes or less." Answer (from fastest to slowest times) in inviso-text below:
Secretariat, Sham (who was 2nd to Secretariat), Monarchos, Northern Dancer
Lesson #1- Horse Racing Math
One of the things I used to find the most difficult to understand about horse racing was the math. I'm a verbally oriented person myself, and though I'd heard the classic joke about figuring out the speed of light in furlongs per fortnight (it's 1,802,617,500,000, by the way), that doesn't really tell you much if you don't know what furlong is. In a room of 6 intelligent folks this past weekend (not counting myself, of course) only one person knew what a furlong was, and he was accused of guessing.
A furlong, very simply, is 1/8 of a mile. Therefore, 8 furlongs (or 8f, as it may sometimes be shortened) is a mile. The American classic distance for a race is a mile and a quarter, or 10 furlongs. The mile and a half length of the Belmont (which is about as far as horses go in the Western hemisphere) is 12 furlongs. The Preakness is an oddball, being a mile and 3/16. That's 9.5 furlongs. Weirded out yet?
Now we bring speed into the picture. When horses work before a race they'll work a certain number of furlongs. Sometimes they'll 'gallop', which, despite being the name for the fastest gait a horse has, actually implies that the horse is going slow and not being pushed. They could also 'breeze', which means they are being encouraged a little, but not pushed into an all out drive. Sometimes they may have a "blowout", which is a fast work where the horse is pushed along a bit, and is often given shortly before an expected race. So how do you know when a horse is actually going fast, either in a race or a work?
Basically, although there is some variation over types of tracks and over the spread of years, it's accepted that a horse is going pretty fast when it runs a furlong in 12 seconds (that's about 37.5 miles per hour). This is somewhat archaically referred to as a "twelve-clip". I don't think people actually say that much anymore, but since I grew up reading books about great horses of the past, I tend to favor an older vocabulary. Most stakes horses should be able to string together at least 4 furlongs in 12, it's when you start getting beyond those distances that things get heavy. Here's the breakdown of times for various racing and working lengths (in minutes and seconds):
4 furlongs- 48 seconds
5 furlongs- 1:00
6 furlongs- 1:12
7 furlongs- 1:24
8 furlongs- 1:36
9 furlongs- 1:48
10 furlongs- 2:00
11 furlongs- 2:12
12 furlongs-2:24
This, of course, should not be taken to mean that the horses actually run 12 seconds every furlong; usually it's less than twelve for some furlongs of the race, more than 12 for others. But basically, if you see horses racing for the half mile pole in a race and the clock stops at 47 "and change" (meaning 47 seconds and a partial second), you know the front runners are not loafing along. If your horse works 4f in 46.60 (as Eight Belles did recently), you know it's blazing along (notably, Eight Belles' trainer thought she might have gone too fast for that workout).
Now, to show you how hard it is to keep this pace up. We'll do this by examining the three very familiar Triple Crown races (run conveniently at 3 different distances). As I said, most good horses can keep up this top speed for a handful of furlongs, but it gets progressively harder the longer you go. The mile and 3/16 Preakness should (if a horse were to keep up a twelve clip the whole time) produce a running time of 1:54. This running time has been equaled or beaten on numerous occasions in the history of the race.
Comparatively, in the 133 years the Kentucky Derby has been run, only 4 horses have ever finished the race with a time of 2:00 flat or better.* The fastest time ever for the Derby was 1:59 and 2/5 seconds (note that, although more sophisticated timers now allow for calculation of running times into the hundredths place, older races could only be determined down to fifths of a second and often people still refer to these divisions when referencing a horse's performance). So, even the fastest time ever for that classic race is only 3/5th's of a second faster than the 2 minute mark. Mind you, this is not the world record performance for a mile and a quarter distance, but given the myriad of difficulties a horse can run into in the Derby, it is by no means unimpressive.
Moving on to the Belmont, which at a mile and a half, is likely to be the longest race an American horse will ever run. The time of 2:24 has only been achieved once in the race, and that performance stands as the world record mark for that distance. The next closest finish for the Belmont is 2:26, meaning that the second best Belmont performer ever would still have finished 2 seconds behind the world record mark.
So what does 2 seconds mean, really? It doesn't seem like that much, but in a sport that measures time by fifths of a second regularly (and even smaller fractions practically), it's a considerable amount. Generally, 1/5th of a second is assumed to equal approximately one horse length. How much is that? Well, it's not an exact measurement. It's supposedly as long as a horse is from nose to tail, basically 8 feet or so. So, if we assume that a horse travels about 5 lengths every second, a horse 2 seconds behind another is cruising along 10 lengths (or 80 feet) behind the leader. More impressively, the horse that actually managed the 2:24 Belmont finished 31 lengths (or 248 feet) in front of the second place horse that day. Man o' War was once reported to have won a race (obviously, over questionable competition) by 100 lengths. Yes, that's 800 feet, or 266 yards (basically, 2 and a half football fields).
So there you have the basic math necessary to understand running times and works. I hope that this has been educational for you all.
* My favorite horse racing trivia trick question is "Name all 4 horses to have finished the Derby in 2 minutes or less." Answer (from fastest to slowest times) in inviso-text below:
Secretariat, Sham (who was 2nd to Secretariat), Monarchos, Northern Dancer
Monday, April 21, 2008
Movie (and weekend) review
So I went to see The First Saturday in May. I dragged my husband along too, so that I could get the perspective of a relative outsider. Our final analysis? It was a darn good movie.
Allow me to preface any review by saying I am not a Barbaro fan. Yes, he was a darn good horse. Yes, he won the Derby by an impressive margin. Yes, his win, and even his career ending injury, did a lot to promote the sport. However, I was never a big fan of his before the Derby, and my fandom post-Derby 2006 amounted only to that deep urge within me to someday actually see a Triple Crown winner in the flesh, and not from any real belief that Barbaro, specifically, would provide that experience for me. He represents to me all that I do not support in thoroughbred breeding: a horse that flashed brilliance for a short time, but couldn't stay sound long enough to truly make a name for himself. I was appalled when they re-named the Sir Barton stakes in his honor. Thanks for taking the first horse to prove his grit in the American Triple Crown and replacing him with a horse that couldn't cut it. So, I was a tad worried that this movie might end up being the "All Barbaro Show". To my great pleasure (and surprise) it wasn't. My husband even thought that there wasn't enough Barbaro coverage. I, myself, have to admit that I thought they'd at least show him breaking through the Preakness gate, if not his quick cruise to the rear of the pack after Prado realized there was something wrong in the stretch.
This story was about six horses, and not just the eventual winner. More importantly, it was about the two legged companions to the horses, without which they'd be little more than hay composting machines. I thought the Hennegan brothers did exactly what they set out to do; make a movie about the people behind the horses. I loved their coverage of Lawyer Ron's 61 year old groom. You don't rub horses into your 60's for the money, you do it because you love the animals. In fact, that was a running theme among all the players in the movie, which I thuoght was brought out very well. It's a hard life to work racehorses. It's demanding. There's little reward or thanks. But the reward itself is in the horseflesh, and the ability to be near it every day.
One of the parts that almost brought me to tears was when Achilles of Troy's trainer was watching his 11 year old daughter in a horse show. His grooming of the horse and braiding its mane reminded me of how my own father would help me when I was showing. We have never had a great relationship (all right, let's be frank, I really, really don't like my dad), but one thing we could agree on was horses. It was all the more touching because you knew the dad was trying so hard to get somewhere in life so that he could make things better for his kids, and if you remember anything about Achilles of Troy in 2006, you knew that this was not going to be his year.
All of this being said, the brothers didn't forget that the horses, too, were integral to the cast. From the first close up shot of Barbaro's distinctively snipped muzzle, to Jazil holding a mint between his lips (and clearly confused about just what the hell to do with it), the Hennegans captured the fact that each of the contenders was a character unto themselves.
I listened carefully to a lot of my husband's comments. First, he liked the movie, which he stated was unexpected. Secondly, he felt that what the movie did for him was make him realize just how much each of the horses covered deserved to be in the Derby. He stated that he usually only pays attention to the favorites, or the horses I mention to him in passing (being only an itinerant fan himself). He certainly didn't remember Sharp Humor, but after seeing replays of his gutsy races that spring, realized that all the 20 Derby horses are the cream of the crop, and most certainly earned their shot at greatness. Finally, he really liked that the trainers the Hennegans chose to follow were not all the huge mega-stars of horse racing. When Todd Pletcher makes a cameo appearance towards the middle of the film, he seems almost out of place. Like he's on a pedastal that the heroes of the movie all aspire to.
My final impressions:
1. My belief that Kiaran McLaughlin is the nicest guy in horse racing was re-affirmed
2. I had forgotten how much I adored Lawyer Ron that year, and still do
3. I had forgotten about Jazil's where-the-heck-did-he-come-from Wood finish (after which I leaned over to my husband and whispered, "You know who his little sister is?")
4. Loved hearing my husband laugh at all the appropriate parts
5. I suppose I shall have to pick up a DVD copy...it is for charity
In other news
- Tomcito bombed in the Lexington. So did Atoned and Salute the Sarge. Behindatthebar triumphed, but it looks as though the Derby is not in his plans. Likely Derby entrants to come out of the Lexington: 0.
- I turned on the Lexington Stakes coverage a few minutes late to catch a list of horses with graded earnings and immediately thought, "Wait a minute, where's War Pass? He should be at the top." I hurriedly rewound the show to the beginning of coverage (thank you TiVo, I love you) to hear that War Pass was now off the Derby trail due to injury. Horses getting scratched from the Derby is not an unknown, however, it's rare that such a scratch could potentially change the whole character of the race. Here, with War Pass being one of the expected pace-setters, the outlook of the race has changed dramatically. Now who will Big Brown have to run at? Bob Black Jack? Maybe. Or maybe Big Brown will end up being the pace of the race.
- Two days after making his world premier as a movie star, Brother Derek came back after a 14.5 month layoff to grab second place in a one mile allowance race. The game old veteran appeared tired aftre the race, and I think, unfortunately, it may be time to retire the star to greener pastures.
- I'm glad I wasn't the only one heartened to hear Randy Moss say that the time of excessive whipping should be coming to an end. I almost teared up when I heard Jerry Bailey state that most horses will give you their all without a touch of the whip. I have tried again and again to tell this to people who are violently anti-racing, but until people in America recognize this and set clear rules regarding the use of the whip, I pretty much have no legs to stand on.
Allow me to preface any review by saying I am not a Barbaro fan. Yes, he was a darn good horse. Yes, he won the Derby by an impressive margin. Yes, his win, and even his career ending injury, did a lot to promote the sport. However, I was never a big fan of his before the Derby, and my fandom post-Derby 2006 amounted only to that deep urge within me to someday actually see a Triple Crown winner in the flesh, and not from any real belief that Barbaro, specifically, would provide that experience for me. He represents to me all that I do not support in thoroughbred breeding: a horse that flashed brilliance for a short time, but couldn't stay sound long enough to truly make a name for himself. I was appalled when they re-named the Sir Barton stakes in his honor. Thanks for taking the first horse to prove his grit in the American Triple Crown and replacing him with a horse that couldn't cut it. So, I was a tad worried that this movie might end up being the "All Barbaro Show". To my great pleasure (and surprise) it wasn't. My husband even thought that there wasn't enough Barbaro coverage. I, myself, have to admit that I thought they'd at least show him breaking through the Preakness gate, if not his quick cruise to the rear of the pack after Prado realized there was something wrong in the stretch.
This story was about six horses, and not just the eventual winner. More importantly, it was about the two legged companions to the horses, without which they'd be little more than hay composting machines. I thought the Hennegan brothers did exactly what they set out to do; make a movie about the people behind the horses. I loved their coverage of Lawyer Ron's 61 year old groom. You don't rub horses into your 60's for the money, you do it because you love the animals. In fact, that was a running theme among all the players in the movie, which I thuoght was brought out very well. It's a hard life to work racehorses. It's demanding. There's little reward or thanks. But the reward itself is in the horseflesh, and the ability to be near it every day.
One of the parts that almost brought me to tears was when Achilles of Troy's trainer was watching his 11 year old daughter in a horse show. His grooming of the horse and braiding its mane reminded me of how my own father would help me when I was showing. We have never had a great relationship (all right, let's be frank, I really, really don't like my dad), but one thing we could agree on was horses. It was all the more touching because you knew the dad was trying so hard to get somewhere in life so that he could make things better for his kids, and if you remember anything about Achilles of Troy in 2006, you knew that this was not going to be his year.
All of this being said, the brothers didn't forget that the horses, too, were integral to the cast. From the first close up shot of Barbaro's distinctively snipped muzzle, to Jazil holding a mint between his lips (and clearly confused about just what the hell to do with it), the Hennegans captured the fact that each of the contenders was a character unto themselves.
I listened carefully to a lot of my husband's comments. First, he liked the movie, which he stated was unexpected. Secondly, he felt that what the movie did for him was make him realize just how much each of the horses covered deserved to be in the Derby. He stated that he usually only pays attention to the favorites, or the horses I mention to him in passing (being only an itinerant fan himself). He certainly didn't remember Sharp Humor, but after seeing replays of his gutsy races that spring, realized that all the 20 Derby horses are the cream of the crop, and most certainly earned their shot at greatness. Finally, he really liked that the trainers the Hennegans chose to follow were not all the huge mega-stars of horse racing. When Todd Pletcher makes a cameo appearance towards the middle of the film, he seems almost out of place. Like he's on a pedastal that the heroes of the movie all aspire to.
My final impressions:
1. My belief that Kiaran McLaughlin is the nicest guy in horse racing was re-affirmed
2. I had forgotten how much I adored Lawyer Ron that year, and still do
3. I had forgotten about Jazil's where-the-heck-did-he-come-from Wood finish (after which I leaned over to my husband and whispered, "You know who his little sister is?")
4. Loved hearing my husband laugh at all the appropriate parts
5. I suppose I shall have to pick up a DVD copy...it is for charity
In other news
- Tomcito bombed in the Lexington. So did Atoned and Salute the Sarge. Behindatthebar triumphed, but it looks as though the Derby is not in his plans. Likely Derby entrants to come out of the Lexington: 0.
- I turned on the Lexington Stakes coverage a few minutes late to catch a list of horses with graded earnings and immediately thought, "Wait a minute, where's War Pass? He should be at the top." I hurriedly rewound the show to the beginning of coverage (thank you TiVo, I love you) to hear that War Pass was now off the Derby trail due to injury. Horses getting scratched from the Derby is not an unknown, however, it's rare that such a scratch could potentially change the whole character of the race. Here, with War Pass being one of the expected pace-setters, the outlook of the race has changed dramatically. Now who will Big Brown have to run at? Bob Black Jack? Maybe. Or maybe Big Brown will end up being the pace of the race.
- Two days after making his world premier as a movie star, Brother Derek came back after a 14.5 month layoff to grab second place in a one mile allowance race. The game old veteran appeared tired aftre the race, and I think, unfortunately, it may be time to retire the star to greener pastures.
- I'm glad I wasn't the only one heartened to hear Randy Moss say that the time of excessive whipping should be coming to an end. I almost teared up when I heard Jerry Bailey state that most horses will give you their all without a touch of the whip. I have tried again and again to tell this to people who are violently anti-racing, but until people in America recognize this and set clear rules regarding the use of the whip, I pretty much have no legs to stand on.
Friday, April 18, 2008
Revenge of the Mystery Horse?
This weekend a bunch of horses in dire need of graded stakes earnings will take to the synthetic track at Keenland for the Lexington Stakes. Will the Derby winner appear from this mass of hroseflesh. Eh, probably not, but it's still worth a look
Lexington Stakes
The story, once again, is all about Tomcito (Street Cry-Inside Or Outside, by Eastern Echo). We still don't know what this horse can do, but we're pretty sure he can do something good. You don't win mile and a half stakes races anywhere in the world without having some modicum of talent, the question is: How much? There's also a question of how he'll take to the synthetic track. After last week's Pyro debacle, I'm not trusting anyone to take to Keenland's surface well. But he apparently posted a 46 and change 4f work this past week over the polytrack. Really, I can't fault him here. If he wins, I just might have to start referring to the Derby as "The Mystery Horse Rides Again".
Atoned (Repent-Amidst, by Icecapade) was completely flat in the Illinois Derby, but he certainly wasn't the only one. A bunch of good horses threw a bad race that day, and I'm willing to give a number of them the benefit of the doubt. Prior to that unhappy race he was just nipped by Big Truck's speedy closing drive in the Tampa Bay Derby. Prior to that he was just nipped by Court Vision late closing drive in the Remsen. Seeing a pattern? So are a lot of people. Clearly, Atoned has some ability. Aside from his last race and a maiden race last June, he has been first or second every time out. However, there's that synthetic question again, he's never run on it. Regardless, I'll be looking for a repeat of his prior performances tomorrow.
Big Glen (Cactus Ridge-Zamba Canuta, by Unaccounted For) looked good winning the Rushaway a few weeks back, but I think the competition might be a bit much for him this time. Racecar Rhapsody (Tale of the Cat-Reflect the Music, by A.P. Indy) didn't run all that well over this track in the Lane's End Stakes (he finished 4th).
Salute the Sarge (Forest Wildcat-Dixie Ghost, by Silver Ghost) won his sole race this year, the 6 furlong San Miguel Stakes. One has to question his ability to route, seeing as how he's had only 2 prior starts over distances. But one, the sloppy Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he could blame his poor 9th place performance on the off track. The other was a second place finish in a grade I mile and 1/16 race. I don't see why he couldn't go the distance tomorrow.
Samba Rooseter (Songandaprayer-Illumination, by Devil's Bag) appears to be slowing, but steadily, improving. However, his last race, a second place finish in a mile allowance race, doesn't translate weel to the Lexington. He's never raced beyond a mile, never raced on polytrack, and never raced in stakes company. That's one (or more) question too many.
1. Tomcito
2. Atoned
3. Salute the Sarge
Nope. Nothing exotic there. Well, except that Tomcito is, in himself, exotic.
In other news
-Yes, yes. I got my tickets to The First Saturday in May.
- Court Vision just worked four furlongs in 46.20 over Churchill's track. My, my, my....things are getting interesting.
- Proud Spell. Will she or won't she? Oh come on girls, just make up your minds. It's not buying shoes, you know.
Lexington Stakes
The story, once again, is all about Tomcito (Street Cry-Inside Or Outside, by Eastern Echo). We still don't know what this horse can do, but we're pretty sure he can do something good. You don't win mile and a half stakes races anywhere in the world without having some modicum of talent, the question is: How much? There's also a question of how he'll take to the synthetic track. After last week's Pyro debacle, I'm not trusting anyone to take to Keenland's surface well. But he apparently posted a 46 and change 4f work this past week over the polytrack. Really, I can't fault him here. If he wins, I just might have to start referring to the Derby as "The Mystery Horse Rides Again".
Atoned (Repent-Amidst, by Icecapade) was completely flat in the Illinois Derby, but he certainly wasn't the only one. A bunch of good horses threw a bad race that day, and I'm willing to give a number of them the benefit of the doubt. Prior to that unhappy race he was just nipped by Big Truck's speedy closing drive in the Tampa Bay Derby. Prior to that he was just nipped by Court Vision late closing drive in the Remsen. Seeing a pattern? So are a lot of people. Clearly, Atoned has some ability. Aside from his last race and a maiden race last June, he has been first or second every time out. However, there's that synthetic question again, he's never run on it. Regardless, I'll be looking for a repeat of his prior performances tomorrow.
Big Glen (Cactus Ridge-Zamba Canuta, by Unaccounted For) looked good winning the Rushaway a few weeks back, but I think the competition might be a bit much for him this time. Racecar Rhapsody (Tale of the Cat-Reflect the Music, by A.P. Indy) didn't run all that well over this track in the Lane's End Stakes (he finished 4th).
Salute the Sarge (Forest Wildcat-Dixie Ghost, by Silver Ghost) won his sole race this year, the 6 furlong San Miguel Stakes. One has to question his ability to route, seeing as how he's had only 2 prior starts over distances. But one, the sloppy Breeder's Cup Juvenile, he could blame his poor 9th place performance on the off track. The other was a second place finish in a grade I mile and 1/16 race. I don't see why he couldn't go the distance tomorrow.
Samba Rooseter (Songandaprayer-Illumination, by Devil's Bag) appears to be slowing, but steadily, improving. However, his last race, a second place finish in a mile allowance race, doesn't translate weel to the Lexington. He's never raced beyond a mile, never raced on polytrack, and never raced in stakes company. That's one (or more) question too many.
1. Tomcito
2. Atoned
3. Salute the Sarge
Nope. Nothing exotic there. Well, except that Tomcito is, in himself, exotic.
In other news
-Yes, yes. I got my tickets to The First Saturday in May.
- Court Vision just worked four furlongs in 46.20 over Churchill's track. My, my, my....things are getting interesting.
- Proud Spell. Will she or won't she? Oh come on girls, just make up your minds. It's not buying shoes, you know.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Forget the Derby countdown
Work has unfortunately gotten in the way again and so my idea of profiling one Derby starter per day in the 20 days leading up to the Derby looks to fall flat. However, one of my co-workers will be attending the Derby this year with some friends and asked me for my picks. Mind you, I really don't want to commit myself this early (hey, we've still got the Lexington Stakes!), but I thought I'd give it a whirl anyways. Here's the very simplified explanation I sent to him:
You asked that I provide some good picks for the Derby/Oaks. I've tried to put in both logical and fun choices (because people rarely bet the Derby sensibly, and usually lose when they do). Finally, I've listed some of the horses that will be played up and bring in low odds (meaning a low payout if they win), but who I definitely don't think are worth a $2 ticket.
Kentucky Derby-
Sensible Choices:
Pyro- This is my Derby horse. Although he finished 10th last weekend in the Bluegrass Stakes, I still love him. I love him almost more now as he won't be going into the race as the favorite. I am willing to throw out his last race and say he didn't like the synthetic track.
Colonel John- This is my #2 horse. The only thing he hasn't done this spring is run on traditional dirt (which is the Derby surface), but he runs as if the switch won't bother him.
Z Fortune- Second in his last race after going very wide on the first turn. I liked this horse months ago before he tailed off in form a bit. He looks to be making a comeback.
Feel good choices:
Eight Belles- This lone filly is still not 100% sure that she'll enter the Derby. If she goes in the Oaks she won't be worth the short price. If she goes in the Derby, she'll make a story of it. This year is the 20th anniversary of Winning Colors' (a famous filly) Derby win.
Recapturetheglory- Twenty years ago the owners and trainer of this horse entered a classy son of Secretariat, named Risen Star, in the Derby. He finished 3rd, but went on to win the Preakness and Belmont and be a real quality colt. His owners bought this horse, and named him, entirely with the idea of once again making a try at the roses.
Tomcito- The Mystery Horse. He's a big stakes winner in Peru and just finished 3rd in his first American stakes race (also, notably, his first start as a three year old). He's won stakes races up to a mile and a half in length (and over older horses) in his own country. The one knock against him is he's going into the Lexington Stakes this weekend because he needs to earn some more graded stakes purses before they'll let him into the Derby field. In other words, he may not even make it into the race.
Don't bother betting:
Big Brown- He'll probably be the favorite, but I think he's just a fad.
War Pass- Also going to be one of the favorites. I am all but convinced he cannot run a mile and a quarter, especially not with a hot pace.
Monba- He had a good last race (winning the Bluegrass), but I just don't think he's a traditional dirt horse.
Kentucky Oaks-
Bsharpsonata- I really like this horse. She was a gutsy second her last race out and I think she will only improve off of it.
Ariege- Has never won a stakes on conventional dirt, but I think she has a good chance.
She's All Eltish- I called this horse to win her last race, which was her first stakes performance, and she brought in a good betting price. I'm now a bit sweet on her.
In other news
- We get two periodicals delivered at my house and in one of them this week Jerry Bailey was interviewed. Strangely enough, not the subscription you would have expected.
- Eight Belles. Will she or won't she? Come on, it's the Derby. Nothing gets owners' blood boiling like the Derby. I'm thinking yes, though I'll hold off on saying whether or not I think it's a good idea.
You asked that I provide some good picks for the Derby/Oaks. I've tried to put in both logical and fun choices (because people rarely bet the Derby sensibly, and usually lose when they do). Finally, I've listed some of the horses that will be played up and bring in low odds (meaning a low payout if they win), but who I definitely don't think are worth a $2 ticket.
Kentucky Derby-
Sensible Choices:
Pyro- This is my Derby horse. Although he finished 10th last weekend in the Bluegrass Stakes, I still love him. I love him almost more now as he won't be going into the race as the favorite. I am willing to throw out his last race and say he didn't like the synthetic track.
Colonel John- This is my #2 horse. The only thing he hasn't done this spring is run on traditional dirt (which is the Derby surface), but he runs as if the switch won't bother him.
Z Fortune- Second in his last race after going very wide on the first turn. I liked this horse months ago before he tailed off in form a bit. He looks to be making a comeback.
Feel good choices:
Eight Belles- This lone filly is still not 100% sure that she'll enter the Derby. If she goes in the Oaks she won't be worth the short price. If she goes in the Derby, she'll make a story of it. This year is the 20th anniversary of Winning Colors' (a famous filly) Derby win.
Recapturetheglory- Twenty years ago the owners and trainer of this horse entered a classy son of Secretariat, named Risen Star, in the Derby. He finished 3rd, but went on to win the Preakness and Belmont and be a real quality colt. His owners bought this horse, and named him, entirely with the idea of once again making a try at the roses.
Tomcito- The Mystery Horse. He's a big stakes winner in Peru and just finished 3rd in his first American stakes race (also, notably, his first start as a three year old). He's won stakes races up to a mile and a half in length (and over older horses) in his own country. The one knock against him is he's going into the Lexington Stakes this weekend because he needs to earn some more graded stakes purses before they'll let him into the Derby field. In other words, he may not even make it into the race.
Don't bother betting:
Big Brown- He'll probably be the favorite, but I think he's just a fad.
War Pass- Also going to be one of the favorites. I am all but convinced he cannot run a mile and a quarter, especially not with a hot pace.
Monba- He had a good last race (winning the Bluegrass), but I just don't think he's a traditional dirt horse.
Kentucky Oaks-
Bsharpsonata- I really like this horse. She was a gutsy second her last race out and I think she will only improve off of it.
Ariege- Has never won a stakes on conventional dirt, but I think she has a good chance.
She's All Eltish- I called this horse to win her last race, which was her first stakes performance, and she brought in a good betting price. I'm now a bit sweet on her.
In other news
- We get two periodicals delivered at my house and in one of them this week Jerry Bailey was interviewed. Strangely enough, not the subscription you would have expected.
- Eight Belles. Will she or won't she? Come on, it's the Derby. Nothing gets owners' blood boiling like the Derby. I'm thinking yes, though I'll hold off on saying whether or not I think it's a good idea.
Sunday, April 13, 2008
Weekend recap
This morning, after getting up and viewing my TiVo-ed recordings of yesterdays races I blinked, shook my head in confusion, and seriously reconsidered the amount of time I spend updating this blog. Well, not seriously...Actually, my husband will tell you that I screamed, "What the Hell!" at the screen, waking him from his otherwise peaceful slumber. Let's just get on with the torture why don't we.
Bluegrass Stakes
Photo: AP Photo/Ed Reinke
Monba proved that he did have a stakes caliber race hiding in him, and although he didn't entirely disprove my belief that he should be running on grass (seeing as how polytrack is almost but not quite completely unlike grass), he did manage to smack me in the face and simultaneously cement himself firmly on the Derby trail. Do I think he has a chance at the roses? Hell no (warning: If you haven't figured it out already, there's likely to be significantly more profanity in this most recent post than you're likely to find in most of my less angrily written diatribes. Cover your young children's eyes). Cowboy Cal wasn't that huge of a surprise to come up for second, making it a Todd Pletcher exacta....which was pretty
much the only good thing about this race. The Toddster has been sitting in my RttR stable all year twiddling his thumbs and finally earned a little of his keep. Mind you, he had to do it beating two of my Derby favorites....the bastard.
Photo: Jeff Haynes
Pyro, of course, is the story of the day, finishing 10th in the twelve horse field. Tenth. My initial reaction to that finish (other than the screaming) was to think, "How on earth could a good horse like that finish 10th?" My incredulity was soon echoed by Jerry Bailey, who appears to firmly believe that you can draw a line through this race and blame it on the surface. I have to admit, it had looked to me early on as if Pyro was struggling a bit with the synthetic surface, but then what do I know about how a horse should look running on synthetic versus dirt? Nothing. Having Jerry, who must be an expert at such analysis, echo my instincts made me feel better, but not significantly. My other picks for the race were equally unimpressive and I now officially hate the Bluegrass and the horse it rode in on.
1. Pyro- 10th
2. Halo Najib- 7th
3. Visionaire- 5th
4. Medjool- 8th
Final analysis of the race? Forget it. I still like Pyro. I am willing to believe, despite all my screaming instincts to the contrary, that this was just a fluke. That the horse just really didn't like the surface. I stayed a fan of War Pass after his Tampa Bay debacle, and he paid his fans back with, if not a win, then at least a high quality finish in the Wood. I will stick with Pyro. He is officially, for better or worse, my Derby horse.
Bluegrass StakesPhoto: AP Photo/Ed Reinke
Monba proved that he did have a stakes caliber race hiding in him, and although he didn't entirely disprove my belief that he should be running on grass (seeing as how polytrack is almost but not quite completely unlike grass), he did manage to smack me in the face and simultaneously cement himself firmly on the Derby trail. Do I think he has a chance at the roses? Hell no (warning: If you haven't figured it out already, there's likely to be significantly more profanity in this most recent post than you're likely to find in most of my less angrily written diatribes. Cover your young children's eyes). Cowboy Cal wasn't that huge of a surprise to come up for second, making it a Todd Pletcher exacta....which was pretty
much the only good thing about this race. The Toddster has been sitting in my RttR stable all year twiddling his thumbs and finally earned a little of his keep. Mind you, he had to do it beating two of my Derby favorites....the bastard.Photo: Jeff Haynes
Pyro, of course, is the story of the day, finishing 10th in the twelve horse field. Tenth. My initial reaction to that finish (other than the screaming) was to think, "How on earth could a good horse like that finish 10th?" My incredulity was soon echoed by Jerry Bailey, who appears to firmly believe that you can draw a line through this race and blame it on the surface. I have to admit, it had looked to me early on as if Pyro was struggling a bit with the synthetic surface, but then what do I know about how a horse should look running on synthetic versus dirt? Nothing. Having Jerry, who must be an expert at such analysis, echo my instincts made me feel better, but not significantly. My other picks for the race were equally unimpressive and I now officially hate the Bluegrass and the horse it rode in on.
1. Pyro- 10th
2. Halo Najib- 7th
3. Visionaire- 5th
4. Medjool- 8th
Final analysis of the race? Forget it. I still like Pyro. I am willing to believe, despite all my screaming instincts to the contrary, that this was just a fluke. That the horse just really didn't like the surface. I stayed a fan of War Pass after his Tampa Bay debacle, and he paid his fans back with, if not a win, then at least a high quality finish in the Wood. I will stick with Pyro. He is officially, for better or worse, my Derby horse.
So mote it be.
Arkansas Derby
Gayego proved that he could get it done on real dirt this weekend and took the Arkansas Derby for all it was worth. One wonders how Georgie Boy might have taken apart this field. Regardless, Gayego had to hold off a late close from one of my early favorites Z Fortune, who, had he not been held waaaaay wide on the first turn, might have put in a much nicer performance. Tres Borrachos stayed in the mix, just holding on for third. Everybody else pretty much just let me down.
1. My Pal Charlie- 5th
2. Liberty Bull- 12th
3. Z Fortune- 2nd
Photo: Coady Photography
Holy Bull Stakes
Hey Byrn grabbed himself a few more graded earnings and may now be headed for Kentucky. However, this race was not exactly full of class, and represented a significant step down for the horse. Needless to say, the competition on Derby day will be a lot fiercer. Plus, having bounced back into this race only after a 2 week layoff from the Florida Derby, Hey Byrn's Triple crown future will look like this:
Florida Derby - 2 weeks-Holy Bull- three weeks - Derby- two weeks - Preakness - three weeks - Belmont
That's - count em- 10 weeks and 5 races in stiff company. Yeah, the iron horses of the past might have managed that kind of campaign. Not so Hey Byrn. At least he's got me spelling his name right this time.
Dream Maestro and Famous Patriot advanced from their maiden only ranks to a little blacktype of their own, and Bipolar Express proved that naming isn't everything.
1. Famous Patriot- 3rd
2. Hey Burn- 1st
3. Bipolar Express- last
Photo Adam Coglianese/AP
In other news
- Despite articles claiming, after her nice, but not stunning, win over Pure Clan in the Fantasy Stakes that Eight Belles (Unbridled's Song-Away, by Dixieland Band) would be pointed towards the Kentucky Oaks, it now appears as though she might be headed to the Derby after all. Although I would like to see this girl take it to the boys (she does so remind me of the late Winning Colors), I don't seriously think she would be a real contender for the roses. Rather, I would see her move as leaving the way all that much clearer for my Oaks favorite, Bsharpsonata.
- In similar news, Adriano (A.P. Indy-Gold Canyon, by Mr. Prospector), whose connections insisted that they really weren't thinking roses, now also appears to be pointed for the Kentucky Derby. Note to those horses on the graded earnings bubble? Don't hold your breaths.
- In The Bloodhorse special Kentucky Derby preview edition this week there was a story where an old handicapper talked about "visceral handicapping" and how the only way he seems able to pick out Derby horses is by figuring out which one would have the best human interest story upon winning. This interested me because I have absolutely zero luck picking Derby winners and am always looking for an insider's perspective. If the article's author is correct, I think I've found this year's "Best Story" horse. Recapturetheglory, who burst on the Derby scene last week while wrestling the Illinois Derby away from highly favored Denis of Cork. Trained by Louie Roussel III, who co-owns the colt with Ronnie Lamarque, this horse was purchased with the intent of...ummm...recapturing the glory the two old horsemen had exactly twenty years ago, way back in 1988, with a little horse called Risen Star. One of the most famous offspring of Secretariat, he was taken wide that year in the Kentucky Derby, and finished third behind the grey filly Winning Colors and the tough colt Forty Niner. He then went on to win the Preakness and the Belmont stakes by an impressive 15 lengths. He went on to win top three-year old honors and would forever be one of the "what might have been" Triple Crown horses. Could his former owners do it again this year? Only time shall tell.
- I've decided to do a day by day chronicle of all the Derby entrants in the days leading up to the big race, for my own entertainment, and also for the benefit of my friends who I'm trying to encourage into racing fanatics (that is, if they can get past all the jargon). Look for my first installment tomorrow.
Friday, April 11, 2008
AWOL
I've been absent from the horse blogging recently because I've been letting a little thing called work get in the way. I know, I know...how could I? Meanwhile, I've almost run out of time to make comment on the last week of major prep races for the Derby. Yes, I'm aware that the Lexington Stakes is next weekend and may feature some Derby hopefuls diving at graded earnings and a potential date with destiny (including, perhaps, Peruvian phenom Tomcito), however, I don't really expect that any of us will see a potential Derby winner come out of any race next week. As such, this weekend represents the last chance most 3-year olds will have to prove themselves before a run at the roses.
Bluegrass Stakes
For the first 10 years or so of my horse racing obsession (approximately years 8-18) I used the Bluegrass as my lodestone. Almost invariably, my favorite for the Derby was determined by who won the Bluegrass Stakes several weeks before the big day. Why? No real reason. I mean, it worked for Strike the Gold...and that was about it. I'll never forget the first Bluegrass I watched on television; it was won by Pistols and Roses that year, a beautiful stocky grey who never went on to do much of anything spectacular. Clearly, winning the Bluegrass is not a great determiner of greatness. However, this year I may be forced to look to its winner again for my Derby pick.
Pyro (Pulpit-Wild Vision, by Wild Again) has done nothing wrong this year. Where his chief rival at two, War Pass, embarrased himself in the Tampa Bay and came back to only hold on for second in the Wood, Pyro has proven a winner twice out. Others may turn up their noses at the slow pace of his races, at the relative quality of his opponents, at his less than impressive Beyers; however, I am not one of those people. He has won with ease and class his last two times out, and the switch to synthetic track is unlikely to hinder him. He warms up the mighty Curlin in his workouts (or perhaps it's the other way around?). The only reason I would have for not putting him on top would be my sneaking suspicion that I (if I were a trainer, that is) might want to take this race easy with my star colt and/or try something novel (like sending him to the front early) to test his versatility. If Pyro wins tomorrow he will be my Derby horse. If he finishes anywhere second through fourth tomorrow, I'll probably like him even better, and he'll still be my Derby horse. If he finishes out of the money I'll blink, shake my head in confusion, and seriously reconsider all the time I waste updating this blog.
Cool Coal Man (Mineshaft-Coral Sea, by Rubiano) looked good his last time out winning the Fountain of Youth, but seeing as how it was over the likes of the now less than stellar Elysium Fields and the questionable Court Vision, his stock has lessened considerably. I went back to look at the video, to see if maybe it looked like he was tiring at the end, and the answer is...not really.
Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway-Texas Tammy, by Stirke the Gold) is a turf horse making his first attempt at synthetic track. I liked Why Tonto's performance in the Hallendale Beach, and as such I can't help to be impressed by Cal's placing in that race. However, I feel he'll be hurt by the inside post, and may not take to the track either.
Big Truck (Hook and Ladder-Just a Ginny, by Go For Gin) has been driving his way up the Derby turnpike recently, with a clean win over Atoned (and, incidentally, a little horse named War Pass) in the Tampa Bay Derby, and a strong second place behind Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes before that. Mind you, both of those two horses have recently come into question as true contenders.
Halo Najib (Halo's Image-Najibe's Wish, by Sword Dance) was second to Adriano in the Lane's End Stakes recently, proving that my earlier assessment of him was a bit hasty. He's 2-1-0 in three tries on polytrack and, though I don't think he would be a winner in Pyro's company, I could easily see him rounding out the finish.
Stevil (Maria's Mon-Company Storm, by Storm Creek) was apparently entered as an anti-rabbit to deal with Pyro. His connections are quoted as saying:
Bluegrass Stakes
For the first 10 years or so of my horse racing obsession (approximately years 8-18) I used the Bluegrass as my lodestone. Almost invariably, my favorite for the Derby was determined by who won the Bluegrass Stakes several weeks before the big day. Why? No real reason. I mean, it worked for Strike the Gold...and that was about it. I'll never forget the first Bluegrass I watched on television; it was won by Pistols and Roses that year, a beautiful stocky grey who never went on to do much of anything spectacular. Clearly, winning the Bluegrass is not a great determiner of greatness. However, this year I may be forced to look to its winner again for my Derby pick.
Pyro (Pulpit-Wild Vision, by Wild Again) has done nothing wrong this year. Where his chief rival at two, War Pass, embarrased himself in the Tampa Bay and came back to only hold on for second in the Wood, Pyro has proven a winner twice out. Others may turn up their noses at the slow pace of his races, at the relative quality of his opponents, at his less than impressive Beyers; however, I am not one of those people. He has won with ease and class his last two times out, and the switch to synthetic track is unlikely to hinder him. He warms up the mighty Curlin in his workouts (or perhaps it's the other way around?). The only reason I would have for not putting him on top would be my sneaking suspicion that I (if I were a trainer, that is) might want to take this race easy with my star colt and/or try something novel (like sending him to the front early) to test his versatility. If Pyro wins tomorrow he will be my Derby horse. If he finishes anywhere second through fourth tomorrow, I'll probably like him even better, and he'll still be my Derby horse. If he finishes out of the money I'll blink, shake my head in confusion, and seriously reconsider all the time I waste updating this blog.
Cool Coal Man (Mineshaft-Coral Sea, by Rubiano) looked good his last time out winning the Fountain of Youth, but seeing as how it was over the likes of the now less than stellar Elysium Fields and the questionable Court Vision, his stock has lessened considerably. I went back to look at the video, to see if maybe it looked like he was tiring at the end, and the answer is...not really.
Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway-Texas Tammy, by Stirke the Gold) is a turf horse making his first attempt at synthetic track. I liked Why Tonto's performance in the Hallendale Beach, and as such I can't help to be impressed by Cal's placing in that race. However, I feel he'll be hurt by the inside post, and may not take to the track either.
Big Truck (Hook and Ladder-Just a Ginny, by Go For Gin) has been driving his way up the Derby turnpike recently, with a clean win over Atoned (and, incidentally, a little horse named War Pass) in the Tampa Bay Derby, and a strong second place behind Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes before that. Mind you, both of those two horses have recently come into question as true contenders.
Halo Najib (Halo's Image-Najibe's Wish, by Sword Dance) was second to Adriano in the Lane's End Stakes recently, proving that my earlier assessment of him was a bit hasty. He's 2-1-0 in three tries on polytrack and, though I don't think he would be a winner in Pyro's company, I could easily see him rounding out the finish.
Stevil (Maria's Mon-Company Storm, by Storm Creek) was apparently entered as an anti-rabbit to deal with Pyro. His connections are quoted as saying:
[T]his is going to be the tortoise theory. We’re going to put him [Stevil] right in front of Pyro, and he’s not going to let Pyro pass him.
Seeing as how Stevil was 5th last out behind Pyro in the Louisiana Derby, one wonders why they didn't employ such strategies back then. Oh yeah, it's because Pyro was too busy kicking Stevil's behind to notice any such interference.
Last out, Monba (Maria's Mon-Hamba, by Easy Goer) was 12th in the Fountain of Youth, a dismal 40 lengths behind eventual winner Cool Coal Man. He's been an indifferent performer on synthetic track in the past. Will someone please get this colt some grass to run on? Miner's Claim (Mineshaft-Sapphire N' Silk, by Pleasant Tap) is something of a synthetic specialist and was second by a neck behind Big Glen in his first stakes try. Before that, he was unbeaten. Kentucky Bear (Mr. Greely-Tate, by Afleet) was 7th in the Florida Derby and a mainden winner at 1 mile before that.
Visionaire (Grand Slam-Scarlet Tango, by French Deputy) has been one of my babies since near the beginning. He literally came out of nowhere to nip Texas Wildcatter by a nose in the sloppy Gotham. In the Risen Star before that he was boxed in a bit, but finished strong and looked good coming in third behind Pyro. I really like this horse, but I'm really not sure if this is his race. The Gotham was and he put out all the stops for it, but I worry that maybe that was his peak, that maybe that dramatic closing gallop out of the fog was a little tiring for him.
Finally, Medjool (Monarchos) proved me right in his last race out when he went from being only maiden winner to finishing 3rd behind Adriano and Halo Najib in the Lane's End Stakes after being held 6 wide on the turn. His record is now 1-3-2 from 7, and even his maiden races have him finishing in the money with the likes of Coast Guard, Tres Borrachos, and Colonel John (who you may remember from last week when he vaulted himself to the top of the pre-Derby standings). I really, really like this horse. I really, really like that he's 30-1. I really, really can't back him with this much proven class in the race.
1. Pyro
2. Halo Najib
3. Visionaire
4. Medjool
This one was a seriously tough call. If I were the betting sort I'd put Medjool across the board, but I don't know what else I'd do.
Arkansas Derby
In recent years, this prep has given us both Lawyer Ron and Curlin, and has found its place amoung the legitimate final Derby preps. This year, the majority of heavy hitters appear to have gone elsewhere, but there's still a significant contingent of real horses to get me excited.
Blackberry Road (Gone West-Strawberry Reasno, by Strawberry Road) has yet to show me anything...ever. He was fourth last out in the Louisiana Derby, behind Pyro, My Pal Charlie (who he faces again today) and Yankee Bravo (who tanked out west last weekend). He has not won a race since June of 2007. Sorry, not interested.
Gayego (Gilded Time-Devil's Lake, by Lost Code) made a name for himself out west by finishing 2nd in the San Felipe behind the now sidelined Georgie Boy. Not too shabby for his first time out around two turns. He's 2-2-0 in 4 lifetime, but this will be his first time on real dirt. Golden Yank (Yankee Gentlement-Golden Charm, by Strike the Gold) was 4th in the Rebel and 3rd in the Delta Jackpot before that. Ho hum.
Liberty Bull (Holy Bull-Lasting Sensation, by Dehere) came back from a disappointing dead heat third place behind Denis of Cork and Sierra Sunset in the Southwest to win the WinStar Derby impressively. One of the two horses that beat him in the Southwest went on to flop, but the other put in a nice win before bowing out due to injuries. Prior to all this Liberty Bull caught my eye in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Let's see if he made a good choice in skipping his daddy's titular race this weekend.
Z Fortune (Siphon-Fortunate Faith, by Fortunate Prospect) really disappointed me by his 5th place in the Rebel. He had looked the best of the rest finishing second behind Pyro's impressive Risen Star charge, and in fact I had entered him in my original RttR stable based entirely on his win in the Lecomte Stakes. Can I just throw out that last race? I really didn't see any reason to excuse his bland performance.
My Pal Charlie completely vindicated my undying affection for Indian Charlie (Shahalo, by Halo) offspring this year with his strong second place behind Pyro in the Louisiana Derby. The handicapers comments say it all "No match; game second." Take the monster Pyro out of that last race, and I'd have no reason to doubt Charlie's performance here today.
1. My Pal Charlie
2. Liberty Bull
3. Z Fortune
Holy Bull Stakes
And finally we have the chaff. Couldn't make it with the big boys, but still need the graded earnings? Try the Holy Bull. With several maiden winners and a couple allowance specialists filling the field, there looks to be little challenge to any of the traditional Derby hopefuls in this race.
Hey Burn is making a quick turn around after his diappointing 4th in the Florida Derby just two weeks ago. There's no way this horse had any chance of bettering Big Brown on that day, but his connections obviously thought enough of his prior performances (winning back to back allowance races by a combined total of 20.5 lengths) to give him another chance.
Web Gem was second waaaaaay behind War Pass in his 2008 walkover opening race, and followed that race up with a 3rd place in an allowance race. His main claim to glory appears to be that he's a son of Fusaichi Pegasus. I never liked Fu Peg, and seeing him in a pedigree doesn't exactly make me do backflips.
Famous Patriot and Dream Maestro look to improve on their recent maiden wins. Both have won at this distance. Between the two, I give the nudge to Famous Patriot, because his last win seems to have come after a slight change in running style, which may suit him well again on Saturday.
Bipolar Express is a Michigan bred (yay home team!) who was 2nd and 3rd in minor Michigan stakes at two. If nothing else, he wins the prize for coolest name.
1. Famous Patriot
2. Hey Burn
3. Bipolar Express
In other news
- Groundbreaking was held this past week for the new Pinnacle Race Course. I'm already planning an opening day extravaganza.
- Fasig-Tipton got sold. To Dubai interests. Not at all sure what to think about that.
- Revised statistics now seem to show that synthetic tracks may actually be safer than traditional dirt tracks, though not by much. Regardless, this makes everyone who was shaking their heads in surprise after recent reports that the fancy-schmancy all-weather surfaces were no better at keeping horses alive than basic dust feel a little bit better. It certainly has got to have the California racing officials breathing easier, after they committed all their state's tracks to going rubber. Unfortunately, the story doesn't seem to say if the numbers regarding non-fatal injuries have been revised as well.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Weekend Recap
Well, wasn't that interesting. This weekend I actually got my husband to sit down with me to watch the Derby preps and, for the first time this year, he's showing interest. Not much, mind you, but some. He does like to have some knowledge of who's running so that he can make not completely unintelligent picks come Derby day and then rub them in my face when they come in ahead of my own. Bastard. But enough of that. There were many questiones to be answered this weekend, and many answers were given.
Wood Memorial
After this race was won I turned to my husband and said, "Well that answers one question for me." Dearest husband was obviously confused. I elaborated, "Whether War Pass was a mile and a quarter horse."
Answer: No.
However, that wasn't the only question about War Pass to be answered this weekend. People were also wondering whether his depressing Tampa Bay Derby finish was just a fluke and whether he would be able to come back from it. The answer to that was a resounding yes. He is clearly a very good horse, and finished up exactly where I thought he would. He fought hard against the late closing Tale of Ekati (making a showing for himself for the first time this year), even though it seemed obvious to me that it took a lot out of him. Inner Light showed exactly what would happen to him in a race with a real pace, rabbiting up a storm (thank you connections of Inner Light for giving me the chance to explain to my husband the purpose of a rabbit). Also, he was a bit hot before the race, had in fact been so fractious acting up during transport that he ripped open his chin and had to have staples put in. That doesn't exactly speak in his favor. I'm sure we'll see him on Derby day, but will we see him in the horseshoe? I think not.
Giant Moon did just about what I expected him to, and also proved that he's probably not meant to be a ten furlong horse. Court Vision came up nicely, but not nice enough. His closing drive would not have benefitted from an extra eighth of a mile, that stretch was all Tale of Ekati's. Roman Emperor proved I was right to leave him out of my pick 5 this weekend. Texas Wildcatter surprised me, fading early. All in all, it could have been a much worse outcome.
1. Court Vision- 3rd
2. War Pass- 2nd
3. Texas Wildcatter- 8th
4. Giant Moon- 4th
Still don't like Tale of Ekati. Don't intend to add him to my stable (even though I could).
Santa Anita Derby
The question for this race was whether or not Colonel John, recent winner of the Sham Stakes, was the cream of the Californian crop.
Answer: Yes.
Colonel John proved definitively that he was a better horse than El Gato Malo in this weekend's renewal of the Santa Anita Derby. Not only that, his connections had him run out an extra furlong after the finish, just to prove that distance would not be a problem. Now, the only bogie that remains for him is whether he can perform on real dirt. My guess? Sure looks like.
Bob Black Jack continues to impress by running way beyond what one would assume he could physically stand. His connections are thinking roses, but I think they'll stay west were the races are short and the dirt is fake. Coast Guard made a nice comeback, he's certainly worth a second look. Yankee Bravo...ah, well....can't win em all.
1. Yankee Bravo- 4th
2. Colonel John- 1st
3. El Gato Malo- 5th
Illinois Derby
Qestion here was whether Denis of Cork was as good as he looked in the Southwest or whether he'd gone downhill in form since then.
Answer: Somebody get that colt some skis.
Yes, well, I had a sneaking suspicion when, immediately after I added him to my RttR stable, his connections decided to move him out of Arkansas and look for a race that was a "soft touch", that he may not be the world beater we all had hoped he was. Guess that suspicion has been confirmed now. Even giving him a significant layoff and putting him in a race where he was pretty much the only big name around, he still couldn't do better than 5th. Nor, for that matter, did Atoned, the Toddster's last grasp at Derby greatness this year, do anything worthwhile. No, instead we were treated with the sight of 15-1 shot Recapturetheglory cruising fairly easily to the lead and winning his stakes debut by 4. Z Humor managed to get up for 3rd, but was so unimpressive in this mediocre company that I don't think the performance will elevate anyone's opinion of him too much.
1. Denis of Cork- 5th
2. Atoned- 4th
3. Real Appeal- last
Yikes, that's all I have to say.
Ashland Stakes
Longshot Little Belle also managed an upset this weekend over the powerhouses that are Bsharpsonata and Proud Spell. Country Star, who probably needed a prep or two before this race, acted up before the start and was never a factor. Absolutely Cindy failed to repeat her recent impressive win over the boys. In my analysis, Bsharpsonata is still all that. Look for her to head my Oaks trifecta.
1. Bsharpsonata- 2nd
2. Proud Spell- 3rd
3. Absolutely Cindy- 6th
In other news
- Eight Belles (Unbridled's Song- Away, by Dixieland Band) won the Fantasy Staks, cementing herself at the top of the filly standings. Although it looks as though she very well might give the lillies a pass and point at the roses. I gotta say, this girl sure looks like one of the boys, and I'd love to see her try them.
Wood Memorial
After this race was won I turned to my husband and said, "Well that answers one question for me." Dearest husband was obviously confused. I elaborated, "Whether War Pass was a mile and a quarter horse."
Answer: No.
However, that wasn't the only question about War Pass to be answered this weekend. People were also wondering whether his depressing Tampa Bay Derby finish was just a fluke and whether he would be able to come back from it. The answer to that was a resounding yes. He is clearly a very good horse, and finished up exactly where I thought he would. He fought hard against the late closing Tale of Ekati (making a showing for himself for the first time this year), even though it seemed obvious to me that it took a lot out of him. Inner Light showed exactly what would happen to him in a race with a real pace, rabbiting up a storm (thank you connections of Inner Light for giving me the chance to explain to my husband the purpose of a rabbit). Also, he was a bit hot before the race, had in fact been so fractious acting up during transport that he ripped open his chin and had to have staples put in. That doesn't exactly speak in his favor. I'm sure we'll see him on Derby day, but will we see him in the horseshoe? I think not.
Giant Moon did just about what I expected him to, and also proved that he's probably not meant to be a ten furlong horse. Court Vision came up nicely, but not nice enough. His closing drive would not have benefitted from an extra eighth of a mile, that stretch was all Tale of Ekati's. Roman Emperor proved I was right to leave him out of my pick 5 this weekend. Texas Wildcatter surprised me, fading early. All in all, it could have been a much worse outcome.
1. Court Vision- 3rd
2. War Pass- 2nd
3. Texas Wildcatter- 8th
4. Giant Moon- 4th
Still don't like Tale of Ekati. Don't intend to add him to my stable (even though I could).
Santa Anita Derby
The question for this race was whether or not Colonel John, recent winner of the Sham Stakes, was the cream of the Californian crop.
Answer: Yes.
Colonel John proved definitively that he was a better horse than El Gato Malo in this weekend's renewal of the Santa Anita Derby. Not only that, his connections had him run out an extra furlong after the finish, just to prove that distance would not be a problem. Now, the only bogie that remains for him is whether he can perform on real dirt. My guess? Sure looks like.
Bob Black Jack continues to impress by running way beyond what one would assume he could physically stand. His connections are thinking roses, but I think they'll stay west were the races are short and the dirt is fake. Coast Guard made a nice comeback, he's certainly worth a second look. Yankee Bravo...ah, well....can't win em all.
1. Yankee Bravo- 4th
2. Colonel John- 1st
3. El Gato Malo- 5th
Illinois Derby
Qestion here was whether Denis of Cork was as good as he looked in the Southwest or whether he'd gone downhill in form since then.
Answer: Somebody get that colt some skis.
Yes, well, I had a sneaking suspicion when, immediately after I added him to my RttR stable, his connections decided to move him out of Arkansas and look for a race that was a "soft touch", that he may not be the world beater we all had hoped he was. Guess that suspicion has been confirmed now. Even giving him a significant layoff and putting him in a race where he was pretty much the only big name around, he still couldn't do better than 5th. Nor, for that matter, did Atoned, the Toddster's last grasp at Derby greatness this year, do anything worthwhile. No, instead we were treated with the sight of 15-1 shot Recapturetheglory cruising fairly easily to the lead and winning his stakes debut by 4. Z Humor managed to get up for 3rd, but was so unimpressive in this mediocre company that I don't think the performance will elevate anyone's opinion of him too much.
1. Denis of Cork- 5th
2. Atoned- 4th
3. Real Appeal- last
Yikes, that's all I have to say.
Ashland Stakes
Longshot Little Belle also managed an upset this weekend over the powerhouses that are Bsharpsonata and Proud Spell. Country Star, who probably needed a prep or two before this race, acted up before the start and was never a factor. Absolutely Cindy failed to repeat her recent impressive win over the boys. In my analysis, Bsharpsonata is still all that. Look for her to head my Oaks trifecta.
1. Bsharpsonata- 2nd
2. Proud Spell- 3rd
3. Absolutely Cindy- 6th
In other news
- Eight Belles (Unbridled's Song- Away, by Dixieland Band) won the Fantasy Staks, cementing herself at the top of the filly standings. Although it looks as though she very well might give the lillies a pass and point at the roses. I gotta say, this girl sure looks like one of the boys, and I'd love to see her try them.
Friday, April 4, 2008
Would you believe...
...I have 6 RttR horses running this week? Six! That's never happened before. Seeing as how you can only have 5 active horses at a time, I'm actually going to have to boot one of the poor things to the side. What a weekend this is working up to be (though it would be pretty hard to beat the double punch that was Big Brown and Curlin last week)! Let's start with the race which actually has none of my runners in it:
Santa Anita Derby
If sythetic tracks are supposed to be "all weather" why are the majority of them in relatively rainless areas such as Southern California and Arizona? No matter. Any horse who makes his name running on them, no matter how good, will always be suspect in the minds of Derby prognosticators until they actually run a time or two on real dirt. One of the few in this field to have done so and comport himself well is Yankee Bravo (Yankee Gentlemen-Vicky Jane, by Royal Academy). I thought enough of this guy after his strong showing behind Pyro and My Pal Charlie in the Louisiana Derby that I included him in my stable's second round draft. He's something of a closer, and the pace is likely to be hot up front in this race. Although no one has yet managed to tire the speedy Californian's he'll be facing today, it has to happen sometime; and today is just as likely as any other for them to finally bend to the inevitable and get taken from behind.
Among the confirmed speedsters are major Derby contenders Bob Black Jack, El Gato Malo and Colonel John. The latter two hooked up their last time out to fill the exacta of the Sham Stakes. Colonel John (Tiznow-Sweet Damsel, Turkoman) was the easy victor in that one, but he also got the best of the running. He put in a bullet 6f in 1:10 and change earlier this week and looks snazzy. Meanwhile, El Gato Malo (El Corredor-One Bad Cat, by Mountain Cat) was forced wide and then wavered through the stretch. I thought he was the better horse before the race, and if he can keep his wits about him this time I think he may still be. A Hair perhaps devides the False and True. . . so too these colts.
Bob Black Jack (Stormy Jack-Molly's Prospector, by Native Prospector) surprised me in the San Felipe by actually managing the whole 1 and 1/16 distance to hang on for third, but he was in no way the equal of eventual winner and place horses Georgie Boy and Gayego. He held, but just barely. I don't think the added sixteenth of this race will give him any assistance.
Coast Guard (Stormy Atlantic-Vassar, by Royal Academy) was, at one point, also a major Derby contender, but his 8th place finish behind Autism Awareness in the El Camino Real Derby put that pretty much out of everyone's minds. However, that was his sole start on "real" dirt. Prior to that he was 1st or 2nd in every start on synthetic track, including a not to be ignored placing behind Crown of Thorns in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
I'm not too enthralled with the others, but I'm going to keep my eye on Meetingwithdestiny, who just broke his maiden going 1 mile and 1/16 on synthetic track; which came as a nose victory over Screen to Screen. The latter, you may remember, recently finished a not unimpressive second to Liberty Bull in the WinStar Derby.
1. Yankee Bravo
2. Colonel John
3. El Gato Malo
Wood Memorial
Ooh, this is gonna be a toughie. I've got 4 horses in this race, and not a one of them but has something to prove. Also, it's hard to know what to do with all the colts who made their previous
start in the Gotham Stakes. With the fog the way it was, we don't really know how any of the horses performed there. Were those who finished up the track just beaten or was there some crowding on the backstretch that impeded them? Could their performances be blamed on the wet track or was it just a case of lower class horses getting smacked around by their betters? What does it mean that Visionaire has left the field? Arrrgggghhhh!!!! So many variables.
Texas Wildcatter (Monarchos-Mike's Wildcat, by Forest Wildcat) was just nipped at the wire by the late closing Visionaire in the muddy Gotham, and for once we might give real weight to the idea that he didn't see the eventual winner galloping ghostlike out of the mist. There's some real speed in this race and I think it might set things up perfectly for him this time. Fourth in the Gotham was Roman Emperor (Empire Maker-Lady Melesi, by Colonial Affair), but at 9+ lengths behind the top two he might as well have been in a different race. Prior to that mudbath he was a close second behind Barrier Reef (hey, what ever happened to him?) in the Whirlaway and 3rd in the Count Fleet behind the since then discredited Giant Moon and Elysium Fields. I'd love to play him, but he honestly hasn't won anything since December.
And then there's Giant Moon (Giant's Causeway-Moonlightandbeauty, by Capote). Can we throw out the Gotham? If so, why? Because of the slop? It looks to drizzle this Saturday, but he's won before on "good" tracks. Because of Visionaire? That's no longer a factor. Because of the pace? What pace? We couldn't even see the pace! There's sure to be some hot horses this time out to tangle with, with Court Vision's rabbity stablemate Inner Light and the oh so recently deposed War Pass being chief among his competitors. I honestly don't know what to do about this guy. Do I just throw out the last race? I thought so much of him before. But that worries me because I'm afraid I'm just partial, emotionally tied down.
The worst thing one can do in handicapping is like a horse.
Coming to New York after his embarrassing finish in the Tampa Bay Derby is former Derby front-runner, War Pass (Cherokee Run-Vue, by Mr. Prospector). I admit, I laughed at his performance in his first stakes of the season. I love to see a favorite taken down a peg or two (I'll laugh my butt off if/when the day of reckoning comes for Big Brown). However, I have to shake my head at the people who dropped him like a stone after that performance. Handicapping is not a game of hot potato. Horses have bad days. War Pass was bothered at the start, and likely confused by feeling dirt fly in his face for the first time in his life. It's entirely possible that this rough experience will turn him off of racing for the future, at least any racing that doesn't involve a completely empty track before his nose. But it's also entirely possible, nay likely, that he'll take the experience and learn from it. Horses are not static creatures. Before his one slip-up this horse had decimated the best of his generation time and again, and I have to admit I like the game champion more now that he's proven himself human...err...horse....you know what I mean.
He's drawn post 5 for this race, so he's bound to have the same problems that he did in Tampa. Either he'll do it Saturday or he'll die.
Court Vision (Gulch-Weekend Storm, Storm Bird) was an uninspiring third behind Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields (who we've recently found was not "all that") in the Fountain of Youth, but he went about 7 wide on the turn to get there. Prior to that he had a close win at this same course and distance, beating Atoned, and before that bested King's Silver Son. Mind you, that was all last year. But I can't help wondering if the FoY was a case of him being taken too far back behind too many horses...and still putting in a credible performance. His post position should keep him clear of trouble today.
Tale of Ekati has not done one thing this year to make me look at him twice. His 6th place finish in the Louisiana Derby is hardly worth note. Anak Nakal is making yet another try of it. He was 7th in the Rebel, 8th in the Fountain of Youth. Yawn. Why do people continue to talk about these hroses?
1. Court Vision
2. War Pass
3. Texas Wildcatter
4. Giant Moon
Strangely enough, that is 100% not the ordering I thought I'd end up with when I began my more in-depth analysis. Sorry Roman Emperor, you're booted from the stable for this week. Don't take it personally, it probably means you'll come home in front and I'll be smacking myself for my stupidity come Sunday.
Ashland Stakes
I'm including this race because a whole bunch of quality fillies have been nominated to the Triple Crown this year, and some of them are in this field. While everyone is wondering exactly what Country Star will do, I'm not all that interested. I'm sure she's trained fine for the race, but when I've got strong recent winners to play with, I tend to ignore those whose last race came 4 months prior. Bsharpsonata has, to my estimation, done nothing wrong this year. Proud Spell has also been very consistent. Absolutley Cindy was stunning in her triumph over the boys, but may have just caught a lucky break. I don't know much about Life is Sweet, whose one claim to fame seems to be her half-sisterhood to Sweet Catomine.
1.Bsharpsonata
2. Proud Spell
3. Absolutely Cindy
In other news
- The King has returned. Curlin apparently wheathered his trip back from Dubai well and has earned himself a well deserved rest in the Belmont barns.
Santa Anita Derby
If sythetic tracks are supposed to be "all weather" why are the majority of them in relatively rainless areas such as Southern California and Arizona? No matter. Any horse who makes his name running on them, no matter how good, will always be suspect in the minds of Derby prognosticators until they actually run a time or two on real dirt. One of the few in this field to have done so and comport himself well is Yankee Bravo (Yankee Gentlemen-Vicky Jane, by Royal Academy). I thought enough of this guy after his strong showing behind Pyro and My Pal Charlie in the Louisiana Derby that I included him in my stable's second round draft. He's something of a closer, and the pace is likely to be hot up front in this race. Although no one has yet managed to tire the speedy Californian's he'll be facing today, it has to happen sometime; and today is just as likely as any other for them to finally bend to the inevitable and get taken from behind.
Among the confirmed speedsters are major Derby contenders Bob Black Jack, El Gato Malo and Colonel John. The latter two hooked up their last time out to fill the exacta of the Sham Stakes. Colonel John (Tiznow-Sweet Damsel, Turkoman) was the easy victor in that one, but he also got the best of the running. He put in a bullet 6f in 1:10 and change earlier this week and looks snazzy. Meanwhile, El Gato Malo (El Corredor-One Bad Cat, by Mountain Cat) was forced wide and then wavered through the stretch. I thought he was the better horse before the race, and if he can keep his wits about him this time I think he may still be. A Hair perhaps devides the False and True. . . so too these colts.
Bob Black Jack (Stormy Jack-Molly's Prospector, by Native Prospector) surprised me in the San Felipe by actually managing the whole 1 and 1/16 distance to hang on for third, but he was in no way the equal of eventual winner and place horses Georgie Boy and Gayego. He held, but just barely. I don't think the added sixteenth of this race will give him any assistance.
Coast Guard (Stormy Atlantic-Vassar, by Royal Academy) was, at one point, also a major Derby contender, but his 8th place finish behind Autism Awareness in the El Camino Real Derby put that pretty much out of everyone's minds. However, that was his sole start on "real" dirt. Prior to that he was 1st or 2nd in every start on synthetic track, including a not to be ignored placing behind Crown of Thorns in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
I'm not too enthralled with the others, but I'm going to keep my eye on Meetingwithdestiny, who just broke his maiden going 1 mile and 1/16 on synthetic track; which came as a nose victory over Screen to Screen. The latter, you may remember, recently finished a not unimpressive second to Liberty Bull in the WinStar Derby.
1. Yankee Bravo
2. Colonel John
3. El Gato Malo
Wood Memorial
Ooh, this is gonna be a toughie. I've got 4 horses in this race, and not a one of them but has something to prove. Also, it's hard to know what to do with all the colts who made their previous
start in the Gotham Stakes. With the fog the way it was, we don't really know how any of the horses performed there. Were those who finished up the track just beaten or was there some crowding on the backstretch that impeded them? Could their performances be blamed on the wet track or was it just a case of lower class horses getting smacked around by their betters? What does it mean that Visionaire has left the field? Arrrgggghhhh!!!! So many variables.
Texas Wildcatter (Monarchos-Mike's Wildcat, by Forest Wildcat) was just nipped at the wire by the late closing Visionaire in the muddy Gotham, and for once we might give real weight to the idea that he didn't see the eventual winner galloping ghostlike out of the mist. There's some real speed in this race and I think it might set things up perfectly for him this time. Fourth in the Gotham was Roman Emperor (Empire Maker-Lady Melesi, by Colonial Affair), but at 9+ lengths behind the top two he might as well have been in a different race. Prior to that mudbath he was a close second behind Barrier Reef (hey, what ever happened to him?) in the Whirlaway and 3rd in the Count Fleet behind the since then discredited Giant Moon and Elysium Fields. I'd love to play him, but he honestly hasn't won anything since December.
And then there's Giant Moon (Giant's Causeway-Moonlightandbeauty, by Capote). Can we throw out the Gotham? If so, why? Because of the slop? It looks to drizzle this Saturday, but he's won before on "good" tracks. Because of Visionaire? That's no longer a factor. Because of the pace? What pace? We couldn't even see the pace! There's sure to be some hot horses this time out to tangle with, with Court Vision's rabbity stablemate Inner Light and the oh so recently deposed War Pass being chief among his competitors. I honestly don't know what to do about this guy. Do I just throw out the last race? I thought so much of him before. But that worries me because I'm afraid I'm just partial, emotionally tied down.
The worst thing one can do in handicapping is like a horse.
Coming to New York after his embarrassing finish in the Tampa Bay Derby is former Derby front-runner, War Pass (Cherokee Run-Vue, by Mr. Prospector). I admit, I laughed at his performance in his first stakes of the season. I love to see a favorite taken down a peg or two (I'll laugh my butt off if/when the day of reckoning comes for Big Brown). However, I have to shake my head at the people who dropped him like a stone after that performance. Handicapping is not a game of hot potato. Horses have bad days. War Pass was bothered at the start, and likely confused by feeling dirt fly in his face for the first time in his life. It's entirely possible that this rough experience will turn him off of racing for the future, at least any racing that doesn't involve a completely empty track before his nose. But it's also entirely possible, nay likely, that he'll take the experience and learn from it. Horses are not static creatures. Before his one slip-up this horse had decimated the best of his generation time and again, and I have to admit I like the game champion more now that he's proven himself human...err...horse....you know what I mean.
He's drawn post 5 for this race, so he's bound to have the same problems that he did in Tampa. Either he'll do it Saturday or he'll die.
Court Vision (Gulch-Weekend Storm, Storm Bird) was an uninspiring third behind Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields (who we've recently found was not "all that") in the Fountain of Youth, but he went about 7 wide on the turn to get there. Prior to that he had a close win at this same course and distance, beating Atoned, and before that bested King's Silver Son. Mind you, that was all last year. But I can't help wondering if the FoY was a case of him being taken too far back behind too many horses...and still putting in a credible performance. His post position should keep him clear of trouble today.
Tale of Ekati has not done one thing this year to make me look at him twice. His 6th place finish in the Louisiana Derby is hardly worth note. Anak Nakal is making yet another try of it. He was 7th in the Rebel, 8th in the Fountain of Youth. Yawn. Why do people continue to talk about these hroses?
1. Court Vision
2. War Pass
3. Texas Wildcatter
4. Giant Moon
Strangely enough, that is 100% not the ordering I thought I'd end up with when I began my more in-depth analysis. Sorry Roman Emperor, you're booted from the stable for this week. Don't take it personally, it probably means you'll come home in front and I'll be smacking myself for my stupidity come Sunday.
Ashland Stakes
I'm including this race because a whole bunch of quality fillies have been nominated to the Triple Crown this year, and some of them are in this field. While everyone is wondering exactly what Country Star will do, I'm not all that interested. I'm sure she's trained fine for the race, but when I've got strong recent winners to play with, I tend to ignore those whose last race came 4 months prior. Bsharpsonata has, to my estimation, done nothing wrong this year. Proud Spell has also been very consistent. Absolutley Cindy was stunning in her triumph over the boys, but may have just caught a lucky break. I don't know much about Life is Sweet, whose one claim to fame seems to be her half-sisterhood to Sweet Catomine.
1.Bsharpsonata
2. Proud Spell
3. Absolutely Cindy
In other news
- The King has returned. Curlin apparently wheathered his trip back from Dubai well and has earned himself a well deserved rest in the Belmont barns.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Illionois, land of cowards
With the plethora of exciting races this weekend, I'm going to have to start my analysis early.
Illinois Derby
Here we have the race that Derby hopefuls enter if they don't actually want to face any real competition prior to the first Saturday in May. Crowned, of course, by the king of fraidy-horses, Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday-Unbridled Girl, by Unbridled). He's still unbeaten and has raced several more times than last week's phenom Big Brown. His last was an impressive win in the Southwest Stakes in February. More recent winning performances by second placed Sierra Sunset and third placed Liberty Bull have flattered him. His stealthy evasion of all horses who could give him pause all but ensures his good performance here.
Atoned (Repent-Adrift, by Icecapade) was second by a neck last out to the quickly improving Big Truck in the Tampa Bay Derby. Before that he was second by a neck again. Both times fading after having gripped the lead briefly. Not what I want to see in a potential Derby runner.
Z Humor (Distorted Humor-Offtheoldblock, by A.P. Indy; a.k.a. the other Z-horse) was fourth in his recent test in the Fountain of Youth and just doesn't seem to be performing up to the style he projected in 2007. Golden Spikes (Seeking the Gold-A. P. Interest, by A. P. Indy) was 5th in the Fountain of Youth, and second before that to Cool Coal Man in a 1 mile and 1/8 allowance. Unfortunately, I'm not a Cool Coal Man fan, so that record completely fails to impress me.
Instill (Proud Citizen-Eboney, by Sports View) was 10th behind the flying filly Absolutely Cindy in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. Before that he was 4th in the Smarty Jones. This is a case of "what have you done for me lately?" The answer: Not much. Recapturetheglory (Cherokee Run-Cold Awakening, by Dehere) was 3rd most recently in an allowance race. Ummm....why is he here? Real Appeal (Successful Appeal-Formal Process, by Diabolo) is the new kid in town. He won last out in a minor stakes going 1 mile. He's also put in a bullet work since then.
1. Denis of Cork
2. Atoned
3. Real Appeal
Illinois Derby
Here we have the race that Derby hopefuls enter if they don't actually want to face any real competition prior to the first Saturday in May. Crowned, of course, by the king of fraidy-horses, Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday-Unbridled Girl, by Unbridled). He's still unbeaten and has raced several more times than last week's phenom Big Brown. His last was an impressive win in the Southwest Stakes in February. More recent winning performances by second placed Sierra Sunset and third placed Liberty Bull have flattered him. His stealthy evasion of all horses who could give him pause all but ensures his good performance here.
Atoned (Repent-Adrift, by Icecapade) was second by a neck last out to the quickly improving Big Truck in the Tampa Bay Derby. Before that he was second by a neck again. Both times fading after having gripped the lead briefly. Not what I want to see in a potential Derby runner.
Z Humor (Distorted Humor-Offtheoldblock, by A.P. Indy; a.k.a. the other Z-horse) was fourth in his recent test in the Fountain of Youth and just doesn't seem to be performing up to the style he projected in 2007. Golden Spikes (Seeking the Gold-A. P. Interest, by A. P. Indy) was 5th in the Fountain of Youth, and second before that to Cool Coal Man in a 1 mile and 1/8 allowance. Unfortunately, I'm not a Cool Coal Man fan, so that record completely fails to impress me.
Instill (Proud Citizen-Eboney, by Sports View) was 10th behind the flying filly Absolutely Cindy in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. Before that he was 4th in the Smarty Jones. This is a case of "what have you done for me lately?" The answer: Not much. Recapturetheglory (Cherokee Run-Cold Awakening, by Dehere) was 3rd most recently in an allowance race. Ummm....why is he here? Real Appeal (Successful Appeal-Formal Process, by Diabolo) is the new kid in town. He won last out in a minor stakes going 1 mile. He's also put in a bullet work since then.
1. Denis of Cork
2. Atoned
3. Real Appeal
In other news
- This is too much fun. Combining all the enjoyment of a basketball bracket during March Madness with a sport I actually care about.
And they all fall down
Today's update is brought to you by the sick and injured Derby hopefuls of the world.
- Fierce Wind totally justified my analysis of his performance by turning up hurt. The Daily Racing Form (which I have now just given up and taken a free subscription for) is reporting that Fierce Wind bled during the Florida Derby, and though that doesn't make up for the fact that his chances of getting into the real Derby gate are now pretty much nil, it at least boosts the egos of those of us who were backing him. He doesn't suck, he's just not 100%. Apparently his owner didn't think much of Nick Zito's decision to run him and switched him to relatively unknown trainer Rick Violette after the race.
-Elysium Fields also has something of an excuse as he was apparently on the verge of heat stroke after the race. Ummm...Barclay....that's not cool (pun not intended). Heat stroke doesn't just sneak up on you, and I know he was a tad sweaty beforehand. Did nobody - not his jockey, not his trainer, not the guy on the lead pony - nobody noticed this animal was nearing the distress mark before they got him into the gate?
- Georgie Boy also joins the ranks of those off the Derby trail. He came up with a severe muscle pull after a workout. Ouch.
- Big Brown...okay no, he's not injured. He's still fit and leading the ranks of the Derby contenders. Just kidding you. Or am I? Until this horse puts in another fast work I'm witholding comment on the status of his feet. I have a somewhat firm belief that a horse with hoof problems will always have hoof problems. The best they can hope for is to go into remission.
- Fierce Wind totally justified my analysis of his performance by turning up hurt. The Daily Racing Form (which I have now just given up and taken a free subscription for) is reporting that Fierce Wind bled during the Florida Derby, and though that doesn't make up for the fact that his chances of getting into the real Derby gate are now pretty much nil, it at least boosts the egos of those of us who were backing him. He doesn't suck, he's just not 100%. Apparently his owner didn't think much of Nick Zito's decision to run him and switched him to relatively unknown trainer Rick Violette after the race.
-Elysium Fields also has something of an excuse as he was apparently on the verge of heat stroke after the race. Ummm...Barclay....that's not cool (pun not intended). Heat stroke doesn't just sneak up on you, and I know he was a tad sweaty beforehand. Did nobody - not his jockey, not his trainer, not the guy on the lead pony - nobody noticed this animal was nearing the distress mark before they got him into the gate?
- Georgie Boy also joins the ranks of those off the Derby trail. He came up with a severe muscle pull after a workout. Ouch.
- Big Brown...okay no, he's not injured. He's still fit and leading the ranks of the Derby contenders. Just kidding you. Or am I? Until this horse puts in another fast work I'm witholding comment on the status of his feet. I have a somewhat firm belief that a horse with hoof problems will always have hoof problems. The best they can hope for is to go into remission.
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