Final Analysis

All right, this is what it has all been about. All the obsessing. All the composing of witty blog posts while laying awake in bed. The dog earred Blood Horse copies. The scribbled upon past performance sheets. The sitting in the shower trying to determine whether or not Visionaire has the guts to really close that final furlong. The pedigree research. The near constant reading of other people's (much better) blogs.

Tomorrow is the Derby, and here is your pre-race analysis.

#1- Cool Coal Man (20-1)

This bay colt out of the first crop by former Horse of the Year, Mineshaft, is looking to be that's sire's first Triple Crown race winner. He's raced three times in 2008; the first was an easy allowance score, but he soon followed that up with a win in the Fountain of Youth (g.II), where he just held on to beat out one of my prior favorites Elysium Fields and co-Derby starter Court Vision. He finished 9th in the crazy Bluegrass, but even if we throw that debacle out, I still have some questions about his ability to run a mile and a quarter. Coming from Mineshaft, you'd think he would be able to handle it, but then he sure looked strained after the Fountain of Youth.

#2- Tale of Ekati (15-1)
This Tale of the Cat colt (out of the Sunday Silence mare, Silence Beauty) was a top colt in his 2 year old season, but has failed to really equal his juvenile form since then. He failed to fire in his first start as a three year old in the Louisiana Derby (g.II). His win in the Wood guaranteed him a spot in the Derby, but it's a questionable win at best. Despite having the pace set up for him perfectly, Tale of Ekati closed in a sauntering14 second final eighth of a mile, and only managed to beat the still game War Pass by half a length, despite the fact that War Pass had injured himself near the top of the stretch.

#3- Anak Nakal (30-1)

Anak Nakal, Indonesian for 'Devious Child', was a monster at two, but has failed to return to that form this year. He has never fared better than 5th place in his three 2008 starts, despite racing at 3 different tracks in an attempt to find a surface/atmosphere/competition mix that he could handle. That being said, there's no question this son of the former Belmont winner Victory Gallop, out of a Quiet American mare, will be able to go the distance. And he did put in a monster work last week over the Churchill surface, running four furlongs in 46 and 3/5.

#4- Court Vision (20-1)

Court Vision is by Gulch, who has previously shown his ability to get a Derby winner out of a Storm Bird mare with his son Thunder Gulch. Court Vision's dam is also by Storm Bird, and if that weren't enough to make you love his pedigree, his granddam is the consummate broodmare Weekend Surprise, a daughter herself of Secretariat and dam of leading sire A.P. Indy. Can you tell I love this horse's breeding?

Though Court Vision has danced every dance this season, coming in third in both the Wood Memorial (g.I) and the Fountain of Youth (g.II), he's yet to cement himself into my heart with a win. He had every excuse in the world after the Fountain of Youth, going 7 wide on the turn and being kept much farther back at the start than he's used to. However, the Wood was set up perfectly for him, with War Pass bobbing heads with the rabbit specifically put in by Court Vision's trainer to push the pace, and he still couldn't threaten the first two horses at the finish (one of which was both exhausted and injured). Although I really (really) like Court Vision, and he has been training extremely well over the Churchill surface, his performance in the Wood has become my deciding factor against him. Now watch him go and win it all and make me hate myself forever.

Photo: EquinePhotoArt.com

#5- Eight Belles (20-1)

Who doesn't love a filly in the Derby? Especially a physically imposing grey filly on the 20th anniversary of Winning Colors' triumph. A number of people have pointed out that she lacks something that all three fillies to ever have won the run for the roses share, that being a previous race against colts. However, Rags to Riches had never raced the boys before the Belmont Stakes last year, and look what happened with her. Others question her ability to go the full mile and a quarter, given that she has never previously raced farther than a mile and one sixteenth. But she's from Unbridled's line, and I can't help thinking, from the way she runs, that she'll just improve with distance. Eight Belles has posted Beyers equalling the best of the boys' this year. She's dominated the girl's division. Putting her in the Oaks would be nothing more than a foregone conclusion. And maybe (maybe) she'll make history.

#6- Z Fortune (15-1)

Z Fortune just can't get any respect. He was undefeated in three starts going into the Risen Star (g.III) this spring, where he ran into a late closing wonder named Pyro. Trying to make a comback (and running to Oaklawn park to escape his nemesis), he finished a tired 5th in the Rebel Stakes (g.II). Making a last ditch effort, he chased Gayego in the Arkasas Derby (g.II), and after going waaaaay wide on both turns, still almost caught the flying west coast phenom. This spring has been a season of learning for him and, I will go out on a limb and say, a season for overall improvement. He's shown me exactly what I want to see in a blooming three year old. This year has been a litany of bad trips and excuses. Either he'll grow up and be a man on Saturday, or he'll slip into obscurity.

#7- Big Truck (50-1)

Although not what one might call regally bred, or for that matter, bred in any way to go the classic distances, Big Truck proved his mettle earlier this year when he burst on the scene with a win in the Tampa Bay Derby (g.III), edging out Atoned and leaving a distressed War Pass in his wake. If one throws out his dismal performance in finishing 11th in the Bluegrass Stakes in his first time over synthetic track, he looks like nothing more than a steadily improving colt sitting on a monster race. And in the picture at left, he looks exactly like what I like to see in a racehorse: leggy, athletic, alert.

#8- Visionaire (20-1)

Another horse not bred along traditional staying lines, Visionaire has been having something of a Cinderella season (the part before the slipper, anyways). He kicked in late in the Risen Star (g.III), a little too late to catch the flying Pyro and the hard knocking Z Fortune. He came back to shock sense into the New York horses, diving like a mud splattered hawk out of the cloudy Gotham (g.III) field to nip Texas Wildcatter at the wire. He, like so many others, failed to show up in the Bluegrass (g.I), but of all the quality horses embarrassed that day, he finished the best. Although very wide on the final turn, he still managed to finish 5th, and was gaining on the leaders at the end. I seriously considered betting him across the board, but my husband doesn't like him at all...and I do respect Mr. Blacktype's opinion.

#9- Pyro (6-1)

The kiss of death for Pyro will not be his failure to get a placing (or even a good workout) from the Bluegrass Stakes (g.I). It won't be the fast pace put up by a Big Brown/Bob Black Jack combo. It won't be the track, whatever the state of the (real) dirt. No, it will be my undying affection for him.

Pyro had what was, in my opinion (and in several others' opinions as well, including that of Randy Moss) the most impressive prep race this whole spring. Yes, even more impressive than Big Brown's cruise to a 5 length win in the Florida Derby. Don't believe me? Just take a gander at the Risen Star (g.III) for yourself. Perhaps, in this 20th anniversary of Risen Star's near Triple Crown triumph, a winner of a race named in that classic colt's honor will take the roses on his behalf.

His breeding for this distance cannot really be faulted, though he may be a tad short on the underside. His Beyers may not be very impressive, but then he has never had to run any faster to beat out his opponents in the final eighth of a mile. He's split horses, he's slipped behind horses and run them down from the outside, he's raced well in mud, he's faced big fields and screaming fans, and he is tried and tested against the best of his generation. The only thing he's done wrong is run abysmally once on a synthetic track that wasn't in any way set up for his style of running.

Randy Moss asked recently which Pyro would show up on Derby Day: the victor of the Risen Star or the also ran of the Bluegrass? The truth is there is only one Pyro, the only question is whether even that will be enough to grab the roses.

#10- Colonel John (4-1)

If Pyro has done only one thing wrong this year, Colonel John has yet to make a single mistake. He won the Sham Stakes (g.III) in a stretch duel against the tough El Gato Malo. He followed that up with a win in the Santa Anita Derby (g.I) over the tenacious speedster Bob Black Jack which, to me at least, looked almost effortless. He's been getting steadily stronger all along. He's bred to go the distance, being by California's favorite son and two time Breeder's Cup Classic winner Tiznow, and he's bred to run on dirt. The fact that he's never given the real stuff a try is, to me, just a formailty. His work of 4 furlongs in 47 and change last week tells me he feels the same way. In his life, he's never been worse than second. You can say you don't think he'll win, but there's no way you can count this horse out of the money.

#11- Z Humor (30-1)

Z Humor, I have to admit, heads my list of horses that really shouldn't be in the Derby. His best race this year is a 3rd place in a questionable Illinois Derby (g.II), over a questionable speed favoring track, against questionable company. His sire, Distorted Humor, has recently been putting himself forward as the sire of the next century and his damsire, A.P. Indy, cannot be faulted as a classic producer. But other than his pedigree and a couple nice races at two (including a Breeder's Cup Juvenile performance where he cruised home in the slop to a 5th place almost 20 lengths behind the winner), what's there to say about him? How about 'What have you done for me lately?'

#12- Smooth Air (20-1)

One week ago today, Smooth Air's connections were terrified their feverish colt wouldn't make it into the Derby field. Now, one week, some antibiotics and a couple of easy works later, he's chomping at the bit. Although not bred to go the traditional distance, he's not slacked off in his two mile and 1/8 starts this year; finishing a solid thid in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and a not to be ignored second behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby (g.I). Not to be overlooked is the fact that he's two for two over sloppy tracks (though both were, notably, sprint races); and the heavens look to open up on Derby Day.

#13- Bob Black Jack (20-1)

Bob Black Jack is a speed demon. Current holder of the world record mark for 6.5 furlongs, he will blow you by if he gets a track fast enough. The question is, what kind of track will he have on Saturday? Like so many starters this year, he's never felt real dirt beneath his feet. He's certainly never felt the cuppy, energy slagging pull of mud. And can he carry that blazing speed for the full mile and a quarter? I'll tell you, looking at his breeding and figures, I was shocked to see him hold on for third in the mile and 1/16 San Felipe Stakes (g.II). I was still more surprised to see him dig in gamely during the stretch of the mile and 1/8 Santa Anita Derby (g.I), to finish second behind Colonel John. If he makes it all the way around the Churchill Downs oval I'll be surprised once again, but you cannot deny this horse has grit. And that, plus speed, is what the Derby is all about.

#14- Monba (15-1)

Monba had a horrible trip in the Fountain of Youth (g.II). He was squeezed, battered, stepped on, and came home bleeding. If that's not an excuse for his 12th place finish, I don't know what is. He then followed this performance up with a stylish win in the Bluegrass Stakes (g.I). But that was over polytrack, and may just be his grass roots showing.

Monba's sire Maria's Mon is, usually, known as a grass sire (though he proved his ability to get a Derby horse when Monarchos took the 2001 Derby in the fastest running time since 1973). Additionally, Monba's got Derby performer and Belmont Stakes winner Easy Goer as his damsire. So there's no genetic reason he couldn't run well on dirt. But on Bluegrass day when all the classy traditional dirt horses failed, Monba and his stablemate (and consummate grass performer) Cowboy Cal carried the day. I'm sorry, that's a bit too much of a coincidence for me. Toss that race out, there's not much left to say about Monba.

#15- Adriano (30-1)

Adriano's trainer was quoted this week as saying "I must be the only trainer in America with an A.P.Indy that can't run on dirt." It's a good point. Everyone has been saying that Adriano is a grass horse through in through. They cite his high front action, and the fact that he's only ever won on grass and synthetic track. But he certainly was driving in the fake dirt during his Lane's End Stakes (g.I) win. And really, there could have been many factors (like his far outside post-position) responsible for his 9th place finish in his sole dirt attempt.

Or it could just be that he's a grass horse.

#16- Denis of Cork (20-1)

Denis of Cork posted an easy win in his first stakes performance ever earlier this year in the Southwest Stakes (g.III), and he looked to follow that up with equally impressive wins in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby. But then his trainers decided not to put him in those races. They cited the fact that he's not the toughest of horses, and needed a bit of a break. So they found a little race several weeks farther on, which looked to have a field of only moderate quality (and thereby saved their horse from having to face the monsters that were War Pass and Pyro). The Illinois Derby (g.II) should have been a soft touch for Denis of Cork. It was not. He finished 5th in a performance that, if I were a track handicapper, I would label 'floundering'. On the Derby bubble for the longest time, he just sneaked into the gate because of Behindatthebar's late dropout.

#17- Cowboy Cal (20-1)

Cowboy Cal is a turf horse. There's no question here like there is for Adriano. His best performances have all been on turf. He got into the Derby based on his gutsy second place finish to Monba in the Bluegrass (g.I), run over synthetic track. His sire, Giant's Causeway, did his best running on grass, and has sired a significant amount of grass stakes winners. Add to all of this that he needs to be near the front, he grabbed the 17th post position, and that even then he still has 3 speedy horses to the right of him, and I think Todd Pletcher is looking at another bottom finisher this year.


#18- Recapturetheglory (20-1)

Two months ago, in his penultimate race, Recapturetheglory could barely manage a weakening and tired third in allowance company over the turf. One race later, and he's on top of the world, having triumphed in the Illinois Derby (g.II) over the likes of fellow Derby entrants Denis of Cork and Z Humor. He'll have to outrun more than those two pretenders, though, to win the Derby. He also has a solid sprinting pedigree to contend with, not to mention the other speed horses in the auxillary gate. You never know, this may be the year his flamboyant owners recapture the glory they had 20 years ago with Risen Star. If so, be ready for a winner's circle seranade. If not, it's back to the drawing board.

#19- Gayego (15-1)

Gayego was the only West Coast originator to head East to try both the real dirt and the eastern competition prior to the Derby, and he did not disappoint. After finishing a strong second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe Stakes (g.II), Gayego headed to Arkansas, where he showed that neither the dirt nor the competition in the east would give him any pause. His win in the Arkansas Derby, over a late closing drive by Z Fortune, was impressive. However, one might imagine the number two horse that day catching up to him, if given an extra furlong to work on the leader. And, with post 19 and a definite need to be at or near the lead, Gayego may not make quite as good an impression on the east coast socialites as he may desire.

#20- Big Brown (3-1)

Never has so much been said about a horse that has done so little. Although I hate to agree with Hank 'The Hammer' Goldberg on just about anything, I like his moniker of 'Little Beige' for this thoroughly overhyped colt.

Yes, he ran a darn impressive Florida Derby (g.I). His win seemed pitifully easy, and you cannot deny his Beyer's are the best in the field. Yes, he's won his races by a combined margin of 29 lengths. But really, what have those wins been over

In the Florida Derby he beat Smooth Air. Prior to that, he beat allowance horses, turf horses, who had all been switched to a dirt track because their chosen surface was flooded. Prior to that he broke his maiden...that was in September of 2007, by the way. His pedigree screams sprinting, his feet are questionable. His stellar performance breaking from the 12 post of the Florida Derby does not equate (in any way shape or form) to him being able to win the Derby from the 20 spot. The handicapper's comment after his third lifetime race says it all 'Drew away; greenly'. And his trainer, though understably awed by the horse which has given him his first real chance at the Derby, needs to keep his big trap shut.

If Big Brown wins tomorrow, I will say the nicest things about him that anyone can say about a horse. If not, I'll be smugly silent. Serves him right

1. Pyro
2. Colonel John
3. Z Fortune
4. Bob Black Jack

So eat your burgoo. Drink your mint julep. Let your eyes tear up to the strains of My Old Kentucky Home. This is what it's all about folks, the most eciting 2 minutes in sports.

Etiam delenda est Carthago.