Almost like Christmas

Seriously finding it hard to concentrate what with all the Derby buzz going around.

-Smooth Air finally worked today, and seems to have come out of his slight sickness last week A-Ok. Although he didn't exactly set the track on fire, one wouldn't really want him to really push himself this close to the race. I think he's got a good chance, especially if the precipitation level is high on Derby day.

- Big Brown, whose trainer is quite possibly the most arrogant person I've ever come across, rebounded from said trainer's surprising choice of post 20 (otherwise known as the Post of Death) for his horse this morning with a true pre-race blowout. The colt went 3 furlongs in a smooth 35 and 2/5th's. Remember what I said above about not wanting horses to tire themselves out just before the big race, well, even Big Brown's trainer has to admit that this was a little faster than he wanted his boy to run. So, let's do a pro/con comparison for Big Brown

Pro-

Unbeaten
Huge margins of victory in his wins
Ran a 110 Beyer in the Florida Derby

Wow...not too shabby. That, you would think, would be a horse worth another look. Now the Con's.

Con-

Only raced 3 times in his life (handicapper's comment from his last race, "greenly")
Beat Smooth Air in the Florida Derby, and that's about it
Pedigree says sprinting all the way
Chronic hoof issues
Inbred 3x3 to Northern Dancer, 3x4 to Damascus
Starting from post of death
Had a perhaps too fast blowout 2 days before the Derby
Morning line odds of 3-1
Nemisis fluttering about his head with a nasty gleam in her eye (trainer apparently has no concept of hubris)

In fencing terms, it looks to me like Big Brown is running on negative 6 indicators. Go ahead and bet him...if you're crazy.