Yet more weekend previews

I've been stuck at a fascinating seminar (those were sarcastic italics, in case you couldn't figure it out) the past two days and haven't been able to feed my addiction.

Fair Grounds Oaks

There are all of 4 horses to choose from in this race. Is it even worth calling a trifecta? Probably not.

Pretty much everyone is in agreement that champion Indian Blessing (Indian Charlie-Shameful, by Flying Chevron) is a lock to remain undefeated. So far she's won on regular dirt and synthetic surface, she's won in sprints and has stretched out to the 1 mile 1/16 distance of this race previously. She's performed on fast and off tracks. She's faced stakes competition at every asking since she broke her maiden. She's defeated the talented Proud Spell twice. The damn filly just won't let anyone get a nose in front of her. In all honesty, what could go wrong? She could break down. She could get tired. She could run out of luck.

But most likely she'll win.

Her premier competition in the race is Proud Spell (Proud Citizen-Pacific Spell, by Langfur). Proud Spell has also performed well in sprints and routes, in on and off tracks, in quality fields. In fact, the only thing that has ever appeared to stand in the way of Proud Spell's total domination of her contemporaries is Indian Blessing.

The media is playing this up as a match race between the two, and that's always a worry. Match races rarely ever turn out to be what everyone thinks they will be. But the field is so small, and the remaining two horses such non-comparable competition, one could hardly imagine the race turning out any differently. Acacia (Cherokee Run-Checkered Flag, by A.P. Indy) has a late February maiden win to her name (in five starts). Meanwhile, Wisconsin Lady (Stephen Got Even-Tomisue's Pleasure, by Seeking the Gold) was second in allowance company her last out, third and fifth before that, and won her maiden race last November. Do you hear that noise? That's two trainers rubbing their hands together in anticipation of 3rd place money.

Proud Spell's trainer has stated that he's going to change tactics with his charge this time, and send her at Indian Blessing sooner. He also stated that, if he had a rabbit to use, he would. It seems to me a poor choice to announce one's intentions to the world, but I guess he feels comfortable having the only filly who can manage even to sweat in Indian Blessing's shadow. He knows that eventually, the champion will slip up. She'll run out of luck. And then he'll be able to say he knew his horse had it in her from the start.

1. Indian Blessing
2. Proud Spell
3. Acacia

I seriously feel dirty even for making these picks. Let's move on to the old men, shall we?

As others have pointed out, it's highly unlikely that all of the five presumptive favorites from this week's races, despite their recent domination, will come in first. I've now chosen three favorites in Pyro, Giant Moon and Indian Blessing. Likely, one of these three will fall, making me look silly. However, I'll compensate a little for my non-originality, by playing up some high priced horses in the following races.

Duncan F. Kenner Stakes

There's quite a bit of speed in this race, lead, of course, by the undefeated Euroears. Someone (likely, several someones) will challenge him today. And with the extra furlong, he just might get beat. Sempahore Man (Formal Gold) is coming off a nice win and has been posting bullets. Same with Noonmark. But here again is speed and more speed.

Truelyonbroadway (Yes It's True) has shown he can rate and, though he lost to Euroears last out, it was his first time on turf and he was run quite wide. Roi Maudit (Elusive Quality) can close and, though he lost to Noonmark last out, it was on a sloppy track he didn't seem to relish. King of the Roxy (Littlexpectations) was my Derby second choice last year. I liked his style. He's been off recuperating since August, and he didn't look all that great before his layoff. But I still have a soft spot for the old guy.

1. Truelyonbroadway
2. Semaphore Man
3. Euroears

New Orleans Handicap

I feel better betting against Grasshopper than I do betting against any of this weekend's other favorties. I think he's hit his apogee and has nowhere else to go but back down in the ranks. Meanwhile, Brass Hat recently finished 4th in a Donn full of class. He's a game old boy. I was never much of a fan of Circular Quay. Encaustic looks to be scratched. Silver Lord and Magna Graduate both looked good following Grasshopper in the Mineshaft, and there's nothing to suggest they won't put in a similar performance in this race.

1. Brass Hat
2. Silver Lord
3. Magna Graduate

Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap

Given my recent "luck" with turf males, I'm pretty much staying out of this one. But I do kinda like Proudinsky.