Saturday, March 15, 2008

Rebel Rouser

I bet you think I forgot this important Derby prep? Yes, well, you'd be correct. I didn't exactly forget that it existed, nor that it was going on this weekend, but somehow I forgot tho include my analysis in yesterday's preview. So, I decided to go a bit more in depth and make it pretty, to make up for my stupidity.

Rebel Stakes

With Denis of Cork flying off to New York (hah, that rhymes!), the character of this race has completely changed. However, there are 9 horses remaining to play with

Isabull

Isabull is apparently a somewhat popular name for AKC registered bull mastiffs and bull terriers...which I found when trying to get a good picture of him. He's on the left in the picture, shown being just beaten out by his close relation Liberty Bull in the inaugural Smarty Jones Stakes. By Holy Bull out of the Miswaki mare Miss Isadora, he could only manage a 6th place in his last time out in the Southwest Stakes (g.III). He's shown he's got some run in him, but in all honesty, he hasn't actually won anything since breaking his maiden last year.

Photo: Coady Photography

Sierra Sunset

Though thoroughly beaten by Denis of Cork as the place horse in the Southwest Stakes, Sierra Sunset (Bertrando-Toot Sweet, by Pirate's Bounty) showed he has some ability. The annoying thing is how long it's taken him to prove it. This will be the 3-year old's 11th lifetime start, which is a considerable number in this day and age. I mean, look at Pyro, who's likely to be stuck in the breeding shed before his 4-year old season and may never see 10 starts in his life. However, with those ten previous starts he's had, Sierra Sunset has only managed a lifetime record of 3-3-1. Still impressive, since the majority of his races were in stakes company. Personally, though, I just don't think he'll make it today.

Stone Bird

This horse is being touted as D. Wayne Lukas' last chance at the Derby this year. I was, at one time, a huge fan of Lukas. I actually took a covert photo of him in the paddock of the 1996 Breeder's Cup, and it's sad to see how the mighty have fallen. However, I wouldn't count him out yet. He's got a few good years left in him still. Meanwhile, Stone Bird (Grindstone-Birdcage, by Kris S.) won a one mile race in the OBS championships by an impressive 5 and a half lengths. Prior to that, he was a maiden winner of little distinction, but a nice pedigree.

Sacred Journey

Before his last trip in the Southwest Stakes I questioned whether Sacred Journey (Unbridled's Song-Thiscatsforcary, by Storm Cat) could go the distance. Prior to that he was just an allowance winner at 6 furlongs. He sort of proved himself in that matter by dead heating for third place with Liberty Bull. If one takes into account the fact that the race was his first around two turns and his first time in stakes company, the poor thing was dealing with several new variables he'd never seen before, and still acquitted himself well. I said after that race that he was a horse to watch, I meant it.

Golden Yank

Golden Yank (Yankee Gentlemen-Golden Charm, by Strike the Gold) was unbeaten in two minor stakes races at a mile before taking third in the mile and 1/16 Delta Jackpot. I may have mentioned that race previously, and my complete lack of interest in the dead heat winners thereof, Z Humor and Turf War. I've been proven correct about those two, as they've turned up less than impressive following their mutual victory. Golden Yank, who was only a neck behind the two in a blanket finish, was clearly close on their heels. But if they couldn't get it done in later races, why would I assume he'd be any better?

He's Eze

Great, here's another silly name, at least this colt can blame his dam. He's Eze (Silver Deputy-Eze, by Williamstown) has not been performing up to the potential his 2-year old season might have suggested. He was fifth in the Southwest Stakes, fourth in the Lecomte, and hasn't really shown any improvement.

King's Silver Son

Now here's a horse I'd heard nothing about until this week, and one may wonder why. By Mizzen Mast out of River Dyna by Dynaformer, this colt is only a maiden winner at a mile. He won his first race after being a bridesmaid 5 times, finishing 4th once and second 4 times in succession. That's the definition of consistent, even if it's only in middling company. Although he's never seen anything like stakes company, he's had a good long layoff since his win and has been training well. He posted a bullet earlier in the month and Steve Asmussen would not just put a former plodder into this type of quality stakes without good reason.

Anak Nakal

I'm sure I've profiled this guy before. And I'm also sure I've never picked him. I'm not entirely sure why I don't like him; by Victory Gallop out of Misk by Quiet American, his pedigree is nice for the Derby. He was badly beaten in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but that was a pretty odd race and I'd generally be willing to throw it out. Before that he was first and second in his two stakes tries at two. I don't know, he just completely fails to spark my interest.

Photo: EquiSportPhotos.com

Z Fortune

A somewhat surprised looking second his last time out in Pyro's dynamic Risen Star (g.III), this colt was clearly the best of the remainder that day. Prior to that he took the Lecomte Stakes (g.III) and won two lower class races. Being undefeated but for a second place to Pyro, he's inserted himself as the likely third favorite in everybody's Derby fantasy stables. Denis of Cork would have given him a run for his money, but Denis just isn't up for a challenge today. Even then, I would have given the edge to Z Fortune. By Distorted Humor out of the A.P. Indy mare Offtheoldblock, he's bred to run all day. And another thing, the pretty little grey puts me in mind of the late Winning Colors; their body types and running styles are completely different, of course, but the Jackson Pollack splash of white across the face is what does it

Photo: Vanessa Ng

1. Z Fortune
2. Sacred Journey
3. King's Silver Son

No comments: