Thursday, March 13, 2008

Weekend Preview

So, my co-worker who actually bets on horses, and who I've been asking again and again all spring "Hey, did you see that last race!" finally came into my office to talk horses. Apparently, he's in the market for tips and likes that I waste my time looking up tons of horse related trivia so that he doesn't have to. I hope I can give him some good advice, becuase then at least I'll be doing someone monetary good (or not, as the case may be). Regardless, his enthusiasm gave me a good reason to start analyzing all the weekend's premier races a bit early this week.

San Felipe Stakes

For a 1 mile and 1/16 race we sure seem to have a lot of horses here that have never gone two turns. That, actually, makes my decisions a little easier. It eliminates Gayego, Go for Cover and Bob Black Jack. I saw Bob's world record setting move during Sunshine Millions Day (thanks TiVo!), and I was never less impressed by a record setter. That track was criminally fast. I'm amazed he got out of that race with his sesamoids intact. Regardless, I don't think he's built to go a mile, let alone the longer distances required by the spring classics. Southwest was 3rd in his last start (on turf) and was 8th behind Yankee Bravo before that. He hasn't won since October, and I don't look for him to do so here.

Meanwhile, Georgie Boy (Tribal Rule-Ippodamia, by Peterhof) has never gone beyond 7 furlongs, but he's got a much more relaxed manner that makes it look like he could go farther. Plus, those last 2 stakes at 7f, he's won handily. Indian Sun (Indian Charlie-Unequivocal, by Alleged) is worth a look if only because of the amazing streak I've been having recently with his sire. Last out he won a mile allowance race (notably on the turf), and as such is one of the field's few two turn horses. Prior to that he was 4th in the Robert B. Lewis and 2nd behind El Gato Malo in the San Rafael. Shediak (Selkirk) was one of France's top 2-year olds last year. They must have seen something in him to bring him to the States. He hasn't raced in a looooong time, but he's won up to 7.5 furlongs previously, and he's got Julien Leparoux (who knows how to handle a quality horse from the continent) on his back.

I seriously could not find any information on the other contenders.

1. Georgie Boy
2. Indian Sun
3. Shediak


WinStar Derby

This race is ungraded (an ungraded $600,000 purse race, what the heck?!) and the talent which has showed up to it is hovering just around that non-level. As such, don't go expecting your Derby favorite to come out of this field. That being said, there are a couple of hard headed horses in here who look like they can maybe get it done.

Poni Colada (Volponi-Coconut Willamina, by Pleasant Colony), a cutesy named local favorite won his last time out over this track by 8 lenghts. The extra 1/16 of a mile doesn't look to disturb him either. His major knock is that he was 6th in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but I'm willing to throw that performance out. Ablaze With Spirit's (American Spirit) main claim to fame is being Poni Colada's lesser regarded stablemate (although he also won the Jim Orbit Stakes at a mile recently). Cape Time and Banker's Way were second and third respectively to Poni Colada in his Borderland Derby romp.

A winner over Poni Colada in the Smarty Jones Stakes was Liberty Bull (Holy Bull), who I was briefly fond of because I like the way he hunkered down and fought for victory (and possibly because of the similarity between his name and that of a horse I happen to own a part of...no, not a race horse...I wish). Though I was not completely turned off of him following his dead heat third place effort in the Southwest Stakes, I certainly wasn't impressed.

Screen to Screen is a maiden winner, and normally I would pay him no more heed than he deserved. But he was nosed out for first in his last race, an allowance at 1 mile and 1/16, and given the ho-hum quality of the rest of the field, I've a mind to take a chance on his long price. Winsome Charm (Silver Charm) was second last out to Bob Black Jack's world record performance, which is still not something to shout about in a route race.

1. Poni Colada
2. Liberty Bull
3. Screen to Screen

Tampa Bay Derby

Ah, you were waiting for this profile weren't you? Well, so was I. And I think we've all been waiting for the top horse in the field to finally be making his appearance. Enter War Pass, stage left.

This from The Blood Horse this morning:

Handicappers who take on the $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) will probably
find their challenge not in choosing a winner, but in selecting the order of
finish behind Robert LaPenta’s War Pass.

I don't think I could have said it better myself. Except that I would't ever say something like that. Call it a foolish prejudice. Call it intentional blindness. Tell me I'm a fool and a horrible handicapper to boot. I hate favorites. I hate favorites at three who essentially haven't raced since their 2-year old season (a walkover allowance race does not count!). I hate classic speed horses in route races. Well, that's not true. I love speed horses. Nothing gets my heart pumping better than a beautifully muscled thoroughbred going all out for the turn, ears pinned, jock low on his neck. I have this old video of Native Diver that shows him in a morning workout...it's enough to make one cry at the beauty of it...but I'm getting off topic. The point is that I just cannot, for the life of me, put my heart and soul on a speed-demon wonder-horse 2-year old making what amounts to his firt real 3-year old start. I felt the same way about Street Sense last year. Oh, I had him in my stable. Everybody did! But he was my least favorite horse on the trail. I couldn't have cared less about him, and I still feel that way.

Mind you, Street Sense won the Derby last year, so that just goes to show you what silly things prejudices are.

War Pass (Cherokee Run-Vue, by Mr. Prospector) has done everything anyone has ever asked of him. He's won on good ground and slop. He's won from 6f to a mile and 1/16. He's won against the best horses of his generation: Pyro, Z Humor, Kodiak Kowboy (also making his comeback this weekend). He's trained sharply for this contest. He's never let anyhorse put a nostril in front of his. His past performace chart shows a succession of one's - first at the start, first at the half, the three-quarters, the finish. Perhaps Pyro could catch him if given another chance. Perhaps Bob Black Jack would rabbit him to exhaustion. Visionaire, Yankee Bravo, and Z Fortune have all shown promise and might be a concern. Heck, Indian Blessing, were she 100%, might show him her haunches.

And none of those horses are in this race. In fact, everyone has been so terrified of War Pass that the Tampa Bay Derby is all but a void. A step up from the allowance of two weeks ago? Hardly.

Atoned (Repent-Amidst, by Icecapade) hasn't raced since since November (where he was a close second behind Court Vision in the Remsen (g.II)) and hasn't won since last August. Big Truck (Hook and Ladder-Just a Ginny, by Go For Gin) was a hard closing second behind Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. He was 4th behind Court Vision and Atoned in the Remsen. Dynamic Wayne (Eltish) won a mile and 1/16 allowance over this track and followed it up with a 4th place in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Gentlement James was 2nd in the Pasco Stakes (at 7 furlongs) back in January. None of the remainder have ever done anything in stakes company, or since breaking their maidens.

So, here I am. Forced to play a favorite against my will. Sigh.

1. War Pass

2. Big Truck

3. Dynamic Wayne

Sunland Park Oaks

And here we find all the fillies too chicken to go up against Indian Blessing and Proud Spell. But really, who can blame them. R Charlie's Angel (Indian Charlie-Yes Ma'am, by Cormorant) should get my nod if only because her sire's been so good to me recently (yes, that is getting a tad old). To add to this she recently won the Island Fashion Stakes at a mile (over Snake Proof, another member of this field), and before that broke her maiden in an impressive 5.5 lengths win.

Meanwhile Grace Anatomy (Aldebaran-Propriety, by Storm Cat), while not exactly performing as she did last year, finishing a disappointing 5th in the Las Virgenes (g.I) last month at a mile and 2nd in the 1 mile and 1/16 San Ysabel in January, is still something to look at. Distorted Passion was second in a 1 mile allowance in January and has some nice breeding about her. Despite what The Blood Horse would have me believe per their article yesterday, Sky Mom did not win the Martha Washington Stakes.

1. R Charlie's Angel

2. Grace Anatomy

3. Distorted Passion

Florida Oaks

And on the undercard of War Pass's presumptive romp, we have yet more fillies. Elusive Lady was eased after her last attempt in the 6.5f Old Hat Stakes (g.III), which has been her only start this year. Calico Bay recently won a mile and 1/16 race in the OBS Championship by 8 lengths. Awesome Chic and Unfolding Wish are both trying a route for the first time. Unfolding Wish is 3 for 4 lifetime, and making her first start this year. My Baby Baby, No Use Denying and Dee's Rose were second, third and fourth respectively, in a one mile Suncoast Stakes that was won by a monster (not here today) who set a track record.

1. Calico Bay

2. Unfolding Wish

3. My Baby Baby

Hillsborough Stakes

I backed Lear's Princess (Lear Fan- Pretty City, by Carson City) over Dreaming of Anna (Rahy-Justenuffheart, by Broad Brush) in the Endeavour Stakes a couple weeks back, and it turned out to be a poor decision. Mind you, my choice lost by only the barest of margins to the former juvenile champion filly. It's true, Dreaming of Anna has appeared all but unbeatable on turf, but again, I'm going to back her rival. Perhaps I just want to be contrary.

1. Lear's Princess

2. Dreaming of Anna

2. Mary Louhana

Cicada Stakes

I honestly don't know much of anything about the horses in this race, so instead I'll tell you what I do know about Cicada (Bryan G.-Satsuma, by Bossuet). She was a champion race mare for the Meadow Stud in the 1960's, winning, amongst other fine races, the Kentucky Oaks. Being from the Meadow's fine line of blue hen mares (descending from their foundation mare Hildene) and being a stakes winner herself, she was sent to the prime stallion that they could afford at the conclusion of her career. As such, she became part of the Meadow Stud's infamous "coin flip" deal with Ogden Phipps, whereby the Chenery's would send two top quality mares to the Phipp's top stallion Bold Ruler for two years running, and the owning parties would then flip to determine who got first choice of the ensuing offspring. A bit of a tangle, as breeding arrangements go, but not completely unheard of. It was a great way for the Phippses, who didn't have too many quality mares of their own, to get fine babies out of their champion and multiple-time leading sire, Bold Ruler. The system would, however, eventually fail them.

Cicada was sent to Bold Ruler in the spring of 1969 as part of the coin flip deal, however, she failed to conceive. The other horse sent that year was another blue hen Meadow mare named Somethingroyal. Somethingroyal had also been sent to Bold Ruler the year before, and produced an uninspiring filly from him that spring. She would, of course, produce a chestnut foal from him the following season. The Phippses won the coin toss in 1969, and chose the unispiring Somethingroyal filly (the Meadow Stud, by default got a Bold Ruler-Hasty Matelda colt named Rising River). However, by the rules of the game, the Meadow Stud came into possession of Somethingroyal's chestnut colt the following year, as the Phippses were required to automatically select Cicada's non-existent get.

Thus, does Cicada fit into one of the most famous stories from American horse racing history.

1. Throbbin Heart

2. Dill Or No Dill

3. Ready for Fortune

Okay, I admit I had to look up her pedigree info, but the rest I knew.

Skip Away Handicap

I won't say much about the older boys, but I've always been something of a fan of Frost Giant (Giant's Causeway) and I'd like to see him make a triumphant retun here.

1. Frost Giant

2. Hunting

3. Dr. Pleasure

In other news


- It appears that Kingmambo (Mr. Prospector-Miesque, by Nureyev) is back on stud duty. This pleases me, because I think he is one of the most consistent sires out there, and unfortunately is sometimes overlooked in the States because of his penchant for getting grass horses. Plus, I get a certain perverse joy from seeing stallions perform as they should, both on the track and in the shed. My dear husband will never forget the Derby morning (I'd been up watching the TV coverage since 9am) when I shouted for him to come in to the family room. He raced in to see what was the matter. "Look," I said, pointing to the screen with joy, "A Storm Cat cover!"

- Trouble appears to be brewing around Thistledown Racecourse in Cleveland, Ohio. Apparently, the track can't come to an agreement with the state regarding how many days of live racing to host in the coming year. I think the state needs to get a grip here. Do they really imagine that Thistledown wouldn't keep itself open more days if it was at all possible? Do they not understand that horse racing, though dear my heart and the hearts of any who would bother to read this blog, is in essence a niche sport? That we're doing our best to drag in the crowds, but sometimes it's just not possible? Thistledown was the 2nd track I ever visited, and as such it has a special place in my heart. I would hate to see it closed for a simple failure to negotiate.

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