Oh, Bloody Hell!

That's it, I'm out of the game. And so, apparently, is Elysium Fields.

That's more like it

I had a sneaking suspicion that my luck at picking horses earlier this season was nothing more than that...luck. Alas, my hunch turned out to be true. I seem to have returned to my usual position of being usually wrong, with a few flashes of burning insight and the occasional "sure thing" pulling through for me. Let's start our weekend recap with the most heartening of performances.

Dubai World Cup

Having finished 3rd, 1st and 2nd respectively in America's three classic races, having compiled an overall race record of 6-1-2 in 9 previous lifetime races, which includes a win in the prestigious Breeder's Cup Classic, and having been named America's champion 3-year old male and Horse of the Year of 2007, one might question if Curlin had anything left to prove. Here in America he'd already been crowned king, but he still had to prove to the world that he was the best...the greatest...the finest piece of horseflesh prancing upon our tiny globe.

He did not disappoint.

Coming around the curve at the Dubai track, seemingly neck and neck with front runners Well Armed and Asiatic Boy, I have to admit I was concerned for a moment. Paused with the two leaders, having yet to switch his leads properly, the champion looked poised either for a romp or a complete failure. And then, seconds later, a collective sigh of relief could be sensed from thousands waiting with baited breath everywhere from Dubai to California. Drawing away from his opponents with relative ease, Curlin drove forward to win by 7 and 3/4 lengths, the largest margin in the history of the world's richest race.

And he made it look like a walk in the paddock.

None of my other picks even came close to the money horses, but really, who cares? This wasn't meant to be their race. Hell, it wasn't even meant to be the race of the two quality horses that Curlin left in his dust at the head of the stretch. This race belonged to Curlin, and we must thank him for giving us the experience.

Photo: Taken from The Aspiring Horseplayer

Florida Derby

What. The. Heck.

I sat there on my purple couch, watching my favorite Fierce Wind cruising to the rear, and said aloud, "Oh, that's not good." He finished 10th, which is at least one place better than my other favorite, Elysium Fields, who finished 11th in the twelve horse field. I'd call that a perfect storm of suckage. However, I shall try to be kind and not let my emotions take ahold of me and take away from the triumphs of those colts who actually did manage to finish in the money.

Big Brown made himself a perfect three for three with his romp in the Florida Derby. I have to admit, I never saw it coming. I just don't like speed horses this late in spring. I don't trust them to "go all the way". But you gotta admit that Big Brown has class. Unfortunately, it's the kind of class that puts me in mind of Bellamy Road. Remember him from a few years back? No, not really. Case rested.

Meanwhile, Smooth Air put in a nice performance finishing second, and likely buying himself enough graded earnings for a shot at the roses. Tomcito, the Peruvian mystery, was my sole good call. I was actually angry at the commentators before the race who were knocking him. I believe it was Randy Moss who said something along the lines of, "Of course he's never faced the caliber of horses we have here today." Oh, really? How do you know? I'm sorry, that's a tad Amero-centric of you. Maybe Peruvian stakes horses are not exactly the quality of American stakes horses, but South American wonders from the past have proved that this prejudice is mostly unfounded. Certainly, you'd have to admit that Peruvian stakes horses are at least as good as high quality American allowance horses...which is the most that winner and pre-race favorite Big Brown had ever faced previously. Tomcito proved that he had every right to be in this company, and if this hadn't been his first start in a new country (and his first start of 2008), I think he might seriously have given the eventual winner a run for his money.

You go Mystery Horse.

1. Fierce Wind- 10th
2. Elysium Fields- 11th
3. Tomcito- 3rd

And another thing? I still like Fierce Wind and Elysium Fields. I don't know what was up with the former's non-performance, but the way he was slipping steadily towards the back of the pack in mid-race did not look at all normal to me. I would not be surprised if, in the next few days, he turns up injured or sick. Unfortunately, there is absolutely zero chance of him being able to make the graded earnings necessary for a shot at the Derby this year. There goes another RttR slot wasted. As for Elysium Fields, I have absolutely no excuses. He got beat, and I don't know why. But I'm willing to give him another chance. Just one, mind you.

Shirley Jones

For the first time in a long time, a Malibu Moon has let me down. Sugar Swirl, who looked like the class of the race going into it, proved that she was. Baroness Thatcher backed up her dismal recent allowance performance with a second place finish I didn't think she had in her (honestly, I though she was on the slow decline to the breeding shed...my bad). Shaggy Mane put in a good performance, setting an honest pace and holding on to finish third. And Moon Catcher...sigh...can we just get this over with?

1. Mooncatcher- last
2. Sugar Swirl- 1st
3. Shaggy Mane- 3rd

Bonnie Miss

I know I didn't profile this one, but I feel the need to somehow make up for my otherwise crappy weekend. You'll just have to trust me that I liked She's All Eltish, who came in for the win. Really, I swear.

In other news

- Happy Birthday Secretariat. Did you happen to catch that monster chestnut taking on the world and winning with style yesterday? Yeah, I thought you might.

Let's get ready to RUMBLE!

With this Saturday marking D-35 until the Kentucky Derby, things are certainly getting hot around here. But not as hot as for:

The Duel in the Desert!!
(a.k.a. the Dubai World Cup)

For this race we have a case of taking Curlin out of the mix, and figuring the exacta. I know, I know...a whole bunch of us were doing this very same thing with the Tampa Bay Derby, and look what happened there. Maybe I've just bought in to all the hype, but I seriously don't see Curlin losing. Mind you, if he does, it will be to some fairly stiff international competition.

Sway Yed has got a pedigree I've never even heard of, which may account for why he's 7 years old, still a horse, and not living the life of Riley as a sire. Since 2005 he's never been worse than second (in 10 starts), has never raced less than 1 mile 1/8, and has excelled in both stakes and allowance company. Whoo, boy.

Well Armed gets props for coming in ahead of Heatseeker twice recently, but he's primarily a CA horse and if the switch from the California synthetic tracks doesn't get him, the travel likely will. I would have liked to see him race a little over there first.

Happy Boy seems comparatively outclassed here, and more of a turf specialist. Sorry, I can back only one South American per week, and he's not it.

Kocab at least has a pedigree I can recognize and admire. But his last win, though nice, was only over allowance company. Before that he seems to have struggled.

I really like Great Hunter, but he's already let me down several times this year. I'm afraid he may be losing his touch.

I love Premium Tap. I mean that. He's the definition of a consistent horse. Love him. Loved his daddy way back when. Loved his mommy's daddy even before that. Had him in my trifecta for this race last year, and that panned out well. He may be getting up there in years and not be at the top of his game, but he's never let me down yet. Until he does, he's got a devoted fan.

Vermillion looks like a killer. I question the ability of any dirt horse coming out of Japan, and especially with El Condor Pasa on top. He completely failed in this race last year. He seems to have done well for himself since then, but a close examination of his recent close rivals brings into question why the same names keep coming up again and again. Fighting your friends on your home turf is not like fighting foreign monsters in another country.

Count me among the many who think Jalil is overrated. You'd never catch me spending $9.7 million on any horse. However, he is pretty hard to fault. There's no indication to me that his competition has been anything but top level, and he's won his last three tolerably well. He's had a prep in Dubai, which is more than I can say for most of the outsiders taking a chance here.

Asiatic Boy is a quality horse, but he's never run 10 furlongs before. I need something to whittle down this high class field, and that's enough. Plus I did say I'm backing only one South American this weekend.

Lucky Find gave me a pause. He has the classic look to me of a horse that tried too hard last out, and could easily come back well today. Then I realized that I was coming to the outside posts in my list. Hmmm...nope.

Seriously, how many horses are in this race?

Gloria de Campeao also will not be able to overcome the outside post. Not with so many other good horses who could do it better than him in the race.

Curlin, of course, is next. He requires no analysis.

A.P. Arrow rounds out the field. He's also a pretty boy. I saw a photo of him this week and assumed it was Curlin, then I realized the face markings were totally wrong. Love the pedigree. Not so hot on the second place to Spring at Last in the less than breathtaking Donn Handicap.

1. Curlin
2. Sway Yed
3. Jalil

And because I'm treating this race analysis as if Curlin weren't even there:

4. Premium Tap

And if that's not enough to get you excited, we also have the:

Florida Derby

This one starts off as a pretty easy pick because two of my RttR stable horses are in the race, and I wouldn't have picked them if I didn't think they were among the top 3-year olds in the country. My only concern in this race was who to put on top; the hard knocking Elysium Fields (El Prado-Dreams, by Silver Hawk) or the impressive three for three Fierce Wind (Dixie Union-Post Parade, by A.P. Indy). I was leaning towards Fierce Wind because Big Truck (fast closing second to Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes) just flattered Fierce Wind with his Tampa Bay Derby win. Then the colt drove all questions from my mind by putting in a 46.80 four furlong workout. There you go, exacta determined.

The question remains, which of the numerous fine animals making an appearance in this race can I use to fill out my trifecta?

A lot of attention recently has been paid to allowance company superstars Big Brown (Boundary-Mien, by Nureyev) and Hey Burn (Put it Back-Restaining Order, by Skip Trial). The former is unbeaten in his 2 lifetime starts, with a combined total win margin of 24 lengths. This will be his first shot at stakes company, and his first time on normal dirt. Meanwhile, Hey Burn has won his last two by a combined margin of 20.5 lengths. He's been in stakes company previously, but could only manage a place and 4th. Both of these colts are obviously far above and beyond the quality of the allowance competition they've been facing. Both look likely to have a breakout performance in this race. Both have sires who's classic producing potential is iffy. In essence, I see nothing to separate the two. They are complete equals in my mind, and I can't back either of them. I dunno, I just get the feeling that they cosmically cancel each other out or something. Also, I think it's late in the year to be meeting your first real stakes competition, and given the depth of quality in the Florida Derby field, I think they're going to be outclassed.

Also making a well deserved jump up from allowance company are: Nistle's Crunch, who was 3rd in a turf stakes previously and won a 1 and 1/8 mile allowance race his last out, B B Frank, who came in second to Nistle's Crunch in his recent allowance win, Cool Gator, who scored the show in the same race, and Face the Cat (still a Helen Pitts trainee!), who last out won a 1 mile allowance race in January over the likes of...wait for it...Nistle's Crunch. And if you can unweave that tangle of horses, more power to you. Just keep repeating to yourself, "There is no transitive property of handicapping".

Smooth Air has some real stakes experience, he finished 3rd behind Fierce Wind and Big Truck in the 1 mile 1/8 Sam F. Davis Stakes. He was also first in the 7f Hutchenson. That would generally be enough to put him at the top of my list, but after seeing his races, I honestly think he's more of a 7-8f horse in general. Majestic Warrior has also seen stakes competition, but has failed to live up to pretty much anyone's expectations of him this year.

And then there's Tomcito (Street Cry-Inside Or Outside, by Eastern Echo). What do we know about this Peruvian invader? Bred in Kentucky, from an Irish stallion whose progeny took the roses last year. We don't know who he's faced or the depth of their quality. What we do know is that he's raced 5 times in his life and finished first four times (he has a single place finish). That he's raced and won at everything from 5.5 furlongs to a mile and a half. That his 4 wins give him a combined total margin of 39 1/4 lengths (that's an average of 9 and 3/4 lengths between him and the place horse). That he's faced older competition (because of South American standards), and stakes competition at that. And that his connections thought enough of him to risk shipping him all this way for a chance at America's classic race. Oh, did I mention he worked a bullet 5 furlongs last week?

Give me a button that says "I Like the Mystery Horse."

1. Fierce Wind
2. Elysium Fields
3. Tomcito

Shirley Jones Stakes

I know, why am I not profiling the Palm Beach Stakes? It's got 3-year old colts? Because I don't believe any of the contestants have a chance at the Derby. Plus, this race just looks more interesting. I'm not going to say much (I'm tired of typing as it is) except to say that I always back a Malibu Moon colt or filly when I can. Seeing as how she hasn't appeared since winning the Maryland Million Oaks last October, Moon Catcher is bound to be a hefty price, and she's got my vote. I'm also a fan of Shaggy Mane, who I think likes the track. Sugar Swirl is clearly the horse to beat, let's see if any of these girls can top her.

1. Moon Catcher
2. Sugar Swirl
3. Shaggy Mane

Caption this photo

Curlin: Oh yeah! I am the stuff!
Grey Lead Pony: Ugh! Gag me with a spoon.

News on the wire is that Curlin has drawn post 12 of 13 for the Dubai World Cup Saturday. Will it have any effect on his performance? I'm thinking no. I am more sure of his victory this year than I was of Invasor's last year. Mind you, the last time I felt this assured of a horse's performance was when Lost in the Fog failed to fire in the Breeder's Cup Sprint. You can put that one in the file of "races that broke my heart." There are just too many high class races in Dubai this weekend, with too many good foreign horses in them for me to focus on any race but this one. And I am apparently not alone in my enthusiasm. However, it has yet to inspire me to make Rocky references.

In other news

- Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday-Unbridled Girl, by Unbridled), recent impressive winner of the Southwest Stakes whose connections felt he needed a bit of a layoff afterwards, may not be able to enter the Wood Memorial (g.I) in New York because of "travel complications." Apparently his trainer is having problems arranging for a plane and doesn't want to keep his horse in a van for upwards of 16 hours. Okay, I've had horses...and I've had my share of trailering issues...so I get not wanting to push the horse into an unhappy situation. But are you telling me there are no friendly farms between Arkansas and New York where the driver and his charge couldn't get a night's rest before moving on to the Empire State? I'm thinking Denis' problem is not the drive but a bogie named War Pass; not to mention Court Vision, Giant Moon, Tale of Ekati and Texas Wildcatter...all probable starters for the Wood. Denis' connections now appear to be pointing him towards the Illinois Derby. Who's in that you ask? Well since Denis' stablemate Blackberry Road will now be scratched in favor of appearing in the Arkansas Derby (and why is Denis not just sticking around for that, I wonder), the answer is....ummm...no one.

- The owners of recently retired Rags to Riches have agreed to donate their royalties from the sales of the Breyer model horse in the image of their Champion filly to the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund. Wait a minute...Rags to Riches has her own Breyer model? Sorry, must stop blogging now and go buy one. Who am I to argue with charity?

Photo: Dubai Racing Club

Thanks for the memories

The sad news this morning is that champion Rags to Riches (A.P. Indy-Better Than Honor, by Distorted Humor) has been retired and is booked to first class Storm Cat son Giant's Causeway. Retiring with a record of 5-1-0 from 7 starts, which included impressive wins in the Kentucky Oaks (g.I), over the likes of Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies and Champion 2-year old female Dreaming of Anna, and the Santa Anita Oaks (g.I). And of course, there was her history making win over eventual Horse of the Year Curlin in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, where she went eye to eye with some of the most talented colts in America for a mile and a half and made her name as only the third filly to ever win that classic race (and the only one to win it at that distance). She was sidelined last year after fracturing her pastern in the Gazelle Stakes (g.I), which race remains her lone second place, to high quality older mare Lear's Princess. All signs pointed to her triumphant return to Todd Pletcher's stable this season, and a work several days ago seemed to show her in fine form. However, it was not to be. She re-injured her leg and her connections decided to take advantage of the breeding season while they still could.

I do love a good filly, and I will never forget this one. How could I? The image of her battling down the stretch at Belmont with a game partner by her side is seared into my memory forever. I'll never forget my husband's comment at the end of it.

"They should breed."

I had to explain that they shared broodmare sires and that it probably wouldn't be advisable. Before I got into horse racing blogging I thought I was the only person who ever sat down with a stallion register and tried to pick out a worthy match for Rags to Riches. I had thought something in the Unbridled line would suit her well. Giant's Causeway will no doubt do fine, but I feel he brings too much grass into a pedigree made to go the US classic distances on dirt. Additionally, their offspring will be inbred 5x5 to Secretariat and to Blushing Groom. That's a little close for my comfort, but whatever. We can't all be complete outcrosses.

Meanwhile, with her dam having now produced two consecutive Belmont winners, and a potential third in Casino Drive (Mineshaft), we can expect equally great things from her champion daughter.

Good luck in the bluegrass my darling. You will be missed.

In other news

-Curlin is ready to rumble in Dubai. They even have someone blogging about it. Perhaps I'm just buying in to the hype, but seriously, this horse just looks good. He shines in the desert sun like a new penny. His connections in Dubai seem almost at a loss to describe his fitness, and though they try to skirt around the language, essentially catch themselves declaring him to have the "look of eagles".

- Did anyone else catch Fierce Wind's most recent work? Four furlongs in 46 and change! Thank you for cementing yourself in place on top of Elysium Fields for my picks this coming weekend.

- Pepper's Pride (Desert God-Lady Pepper, by Chili Pepper), a New Mexico bred racing primarily in state-bred races just won the Sydney Valentini Handicap to remain unbeaten in 15 lifetime starts. As such, she's brought her lifetime winnings up to $816,665 and, should she be able to hang on for just one more race, will have tied the modern Thoroughbred record of 16 unbeaten starts and share title with such racing greats as Citation, Cigar, Mister Frisky and Hallowed Dreams.

Easter Re-cap

Good morning! I hope everyone's enjoying their peeps (mine are purple!). Hey, can anyone tell me why Ben-Hur is not playing on any TV stations this whole weekend? Last night The Ten Commandments was on two different stations at the exact same time, but no Ben-Hur. How can you not show Ben-Hur at Easter time? I'm probably the least religious person you'd ever find, but I like me a good Charlton Heston epic film. Plus, its main feature is horse racing, how can you go wrong? Sport of kings indeed. Speaking of which, I didn't win anything this weekend, but I don't think that I did half bad with these races (which seemed fairly open to begin with).

Lane's End Stakes

Adriano (A.P. Indy) became the next turf star to successfully transition to polytrack. He was eased at the finish, having had an absolutely lovely trip around the oval. I won't take anything away from this guy, but I don't think he's Derby material. He absolutely flopped on dirt during the Fountain of Youth. Not far behind him in second was Halo Najib (Halo's Image), who pretty much has to give up his Derby hopes after this. And in third was Medjool.

Okay, I've read several recaps of the race, I've read a bunch of bloggers responses to the race and no one, I mean no one, is talking about this horse. Maybe I'm biased because I thought he had a good chance at winning, but I seriously thought he put in a stellar performance in this race. He was 3 wide through the first turn, settled nicely, challenged going into the second turn (perhaps a tad early), was 5 wide (actually 6, given the large gaps between horses) coming around the final turn, was held out in the middle of the track by the horse just inside him (when he was obviously trying to get in and save ground), and still hung on for a game third. Not bad for a mere allowance winner previously. I said I thought he was a horse just about to break out of his shell...mark my words...give him even a moderately clean trip and he will.

That being said, I have serious concerns about his ability to run on real dirt as well, and at this point it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that he could never get the graded earnings necessary for a shot at the Derby. Ah, well.

1. Medjool- 3rd
2. Cannonball- 6th
3. Halo Najib- 2nd

Rushaway Stakes

Ho hum...do we really care about the outcome of this race? I was busy entertaining my parents with cheeses and other delectable foodstuffs while it was on and it thoroughly failed to grab my attention. That's saying something. Turns out Big Glen (Cactus Ridge) took it from favored Miner's Claim (Mineshaft), who himself proved that he could come back from his career two wins at two to put in a good performance today. I have no excuses for my poor performance in handicapping, except for the fact that maybe I just didn't care enough.

1. Tejano's Eliminator- 6th
2. Big Glen- 1st
3. Targe- 5th

Let's just forget this week. And that's soooo easy to do, because next week is gonna be a doozy: the Palm Beach Stakes (g.III), the Bonnie Miss (g.II), the hotly contested Florida Derby (g.I) and, of course, the official return of Curlin in the Dubai World Cup (g.I). Put on your lucky racing caps, the season is about to begin.

Weekend Preview

In between the storm of high quality races we had last week and the virtual hurricane of races next week (caused in no little amount by the sandstorm which is expected to follow in the wake of Curlin and the Dubai World Cup) is...ummm...this week. Mind you, I welcome the brake, as last week was just too much for me to handle. Point in fact, I think I'll stick to profiling only Derby trail 3-year olds for a while.

Lane's End Stakes

My dear husband once made fun of this race, laughing at how commercial horse racing has become that a clothing store can now sponsor a race. I told him it was the name of a famous breeding farm, which decidedly cut into his fun. Luckily for him, he can continue to rag me about the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (please kill me).

Twelve middle of the road Derby contenders have entered this race. As the Lane's End is now run on Keenland's polytrack, it's attracted several synthetic and grass specialists who would not normally be trying out a major Derby prep. However, the switch to synthetic does not mean that a serious Derby contender could not come from this field; the Lane's End was won last year by Hard Spun who, if he didn't win any of the Classics, certainly made his name heard in all of them...the definition of consistency.

Among the several horses we've seen before on the Derby trail, and making perhaps his last grasp at greatness, is Halo Najib (Halo's Image-Najibe's Wish, by Sword Dance). He was sixth last out in the Fountain of Youth, but prior to that won an OBS Championship race on synthetic track. Point of fact, this horse has never lost a race on synthetics (although the sample size of 2 races is not what one might consider "scientifically significant").

Turf War (Dixie Union-Grass Skirt, by Mr. Prospector) has also made his name known. He was 9th in the Southwest Stakes, never having been a factor. Before that he was part of the Delta Jackpot dead heat which I have continually ignored. If that pedigree looked familiar it's because he's a full brother to 4-year old Grasshopper, who was recently a hard fighting second to Circular Quay in the New Orleans Handicap (g.II), and a winner in the Mineshaft (g.III) before that.

Cannonball (Catenius-No Deadline, by Skywalker...now that's an interesting background) to date has been something of a turf expert (2-0-3 from 5 starts on that surface). He, Why Tonto (Indian Charlie) and Cowboy Cal (Giant's Causeway) have filled the trifecta their last 2 times out. Prior to that, Cannonball was 3rd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf. Can he make a successful switch to the polytrack?

Then there's a plethora of lesser knowns, trying to make it to the big time. Adriano (A.P. Indy- Gold Canyon, by Mr. Prospector...lovely) was 9th in the Fountain of Youth, but has raced mostly turf and has one 4th on synthetic track. Chitoz has little to recommend him, but seems to like things wet and wild and may be worth watching if the track is off. Duke of de Buqe is a stakes company newbie, but recently won an allowance race impressively for Todd Pletcher (who I'd like to see actually do something for my RttR stable for once). Racecar Rhapsody was 4th in the infamous Delat Jackpot, but broke his maiden over this same polytrack surface. Macho Again has never won above 7 furlongs and appeared thoroughly outclassed by both Z Fortune and Blackberry Road in the Lecomte Stakes.

Medjool's highest class race before this was a 6th place behind Yankee Bravo in the California Derby. Afterwards he was dropped down in class and finally broke his maiden in a mile and 1/16 synthetic race, winning off by 4 and a half. Yes, he was put in a stakes before breaking his maiden on the basis of three places and a show effort in maiden company including the likes of Colonel John, Tres Borrachos, and Coast Guard. Although he'll be facing a tough test here, he looks to me like a horse just about to break out of his shell.

1. Medjool
2. Cannonball
3. Halo Najib

Bad news is I have no horses running again this week. Good news is, they're finally televising the prep races on normal channels!! That means I actually get to watch the Lane's End!! As it's happening!!

Rushaway Stakes

Although not as prestigious as the Lane's End (which is saying something), there is one other stakes race for 3-year old males this week. No really big horses here, but worth a look anways. Big Glen (Cactus Ridge) looks to be the top horse in the field, finishing 4th last to Absolutely Cindy in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes. Cape of Storms (Cape Town) actaully won the last time out in a one mile test over synthetic track. But prior to that he was a dismal 12th in the Smarty Jones Stakes. He'd probably look to be the class of the field, but he's gone through 8 jockeys in 13 starts...that just seems odd to me. I usually assume jockeys to be nothing more than heavy ornamentation on horse's backs, but when a horse can't seem to keep a regular rider, I start to wonder why.

Holidaze (Harlan's Holiday) returns after ghosting to 6th place behind Visionaire in the fogged-out Gotham. The splits on that are hilarious: __ __ __ __ 6th. Miner's Claim (Mineshaft) is undefeated...in 2 starts last year.

Tejano's Eliminator (Tejano Run) could only manage a 5th place the last time out in a small stakes race at 7f over a real dirt track. Before that, he came in first in a 1 mile 1/16 allowance over synthetic track and prior to that broke his maiden going a mile over the same surface. Targe (Monarchos) also performs well on synthetic track, he was second the last time out at 1 mile, and has won on this track before. Ichabod Crane (Jump Start) also looks to be a synthetic monster in the making. He hasn't run since January, but then he took a mile and 70 contest on synthetic track.

1. Tejano's Eliminator
2. Big Glen
3. Targe

In other news

- It appears that Sierra Sunset, winner of last week's Rebel Stakes (g.II) has been sidelined with an ankle injury and is off the Derby trail. Now I don't feel quite so bad about him shutting down Z Fortune.

- Items from several prominent Claiborne sires are being put up at auction on eBay to benefit the Secretariat Foundation. Oh. My. God. I'll have you know I'm not what anyone would call rich, and I almost never go on eBay, but I have a soft spot for Secretariat memorabilia. I'm the proud owner of an authentic 1973 Kentucky Derby mint julep glass (which gets used only by me...and only once a year). I've also been trying for years to get ahold of mint copies of the Newsweek, Time, and Sports Illustrated editions that feature Secretariat on the cover; I was outbid last year for a collection of all three when I couldn't justify going over $200. I'm aware that there's no way I could ever afford any of these pieces, but a girl can dream can't she?

-Okay, this is probably totally off topic, but Ive decided that Pyro is not pretty. Seriously, I was talking about this with my husband and, though he's certainly not what you'd call a connoisseur of horseflesh, he agreed. He's very angular, especially when compared with his sometime running partner Curlin, who is about as well muscled and rounded as could be. It doesn't sway me from my support of him as a runner, though. Clearly, pretty is as pretty does, and some of the ugliest horses have found the roses on their shoulders come Derby day. Still, is anyone else in agreement with me that his looks leave something to be desired?

Photo: Skip Dickstein

Racing in the mitten state (or how I got into horse racing)

The first thoroughbred race I ever saw was at Erie Downs, a Pennsylvania track which, I believe, is now defunct. I don't remember much about the experience except that I ate in the clubhouse and that my mom let me pick horses out of the program and bet them for me. The first horse I ever bet was #8. It had a cool name, but I don't remember what it was. My grandmother, who was with us, bet on the same horse. My mom thought I'd have a better chance of winning if she put my bet to show. The horse came in. It was a longshot. My grandmother got a whole handful of dough. I got a couple dollars. It's an event I've never quite forgotten (or forgiven).

The following spring my mom sat me down in front of a TV and told me to watch the Belmont Stakes. I was more interested in cartoons, but she said she had heard there might be a Triple Crown winner (whatever that was) that year, and that this was a part of American history in the making that I should observe. So I watched, and I saw two horses battle down the stretch. One the blue-blooded chestnut beauty from the east coast, the other a wild card black stallion with a curiously shapes stripe down his nose from California. Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. It was like something out of Walter Farley novel, though I hadn't been introduced to those books yet. I don't even remember the race all that much, except that Sunday Silence lost, but something that day snapped inside me and I was never quite the same afterwards.

By the following year I was actually reading Walter Farely novels. And the Misty novels. And the Thoroughbred series. And on top of that I had a healthy obsession with historical novels chronicling the lives of famous race horses from the past. Exterminator. Black Gold. Man o' War. These were fairy tales that were actually true. I was thrilled to go to the track again, this time to Thistledown in Ohio, which is still alive, but struggling.

Eventually, my grandparents determined that my horse racing obsession would not go away, and my beloved grandfather, who was an occasional gambler, decided to take me to a track a little closer to home. That track was Detroit Race Course in Michigan. It was a monstrosity of emotionless concrete. There was no clubhouse, and from what one could see of the confetti of tickets littering the grandstand, not much of a cleaning staff. But I wasn't there for the view, I was there for the horses. And there is where I learned that when you stand next to the finish pole, right up against the track fence, you not only hear the horses pounding down the stretch...you feel them. It vibrates through your lower legs as if the concussions were actually coming from within you. Like the sound of a huge base drum in a gymnasium during a pep rally, which vibrates through your chest cavity is if it were actually your own heart pounding and not the instrument.

And that is when I became completely, 100%, without recourse, crazy about this sport

I would visit the track several times over the ensuing years, but being a kid, I had to wait for someone less fascinated with racing than I to take me. That wasn't very often. When I was a senior in high school I had a bad string of depressing events and my parents were kind enough to offer to do something to cheer me up. I didn't think for more than a second, I asked to go to the Breeder's Cup. It was at Woodbine that year, and I couldn't imagine it ever coming closer to the racing wasteland that was Michigan. My parents were skeptical at first, but it turned out to be one of the best vacations we ever had.

The following year I went to college. The year after that, DRC closed down. I wasn't even old enough to bet yet, and I no longer had any place to do so.

The last time I went to a track was Arlington, for the 2002 Breeder's Cup. I dragged along my then fiance, who had never seen a horse race live. We couldn't get anywhere near the paddock, or the finish line, or really the track. But I loved it, and my husband enjoyed the betting. The last time I bet on a race was the Derby Trial in 2005. I was in Vegas for a weekend with friends, and convinced them to spend a few minutes in the sports book room. Sure, there are harness tracks around where I could watch simulcasting, and there's off track betting places here and there. But for me, it's not about the betting. It's about the racing. And there just wasn't any live racing to be had in a several hundred mile radius from my home. Yes, there was Great Lakes Downs on the other side of the state, but that was still a good 3+ hour trip one way, and it closed down last year anyways.

Then I heard about the proposed Pinnacle Race Course, and I rejoiced.

Located just minutes from my best friends' apartment, a 30 minute jaunt from my place of work, an hour's drive from my house, and approximately halfway between my home and that of my parents and grandmother; it was like the answer to a long unspoken prayer. Please let me feel the earth shake again.

Looks like I will. July 18th. It's a Friday. Guess I'll be taking off of work.

In case you were wondering, the latin phrase on the seal of the Michigan Racing Commissioner is our state motto: "If you seek a pleasant peninsula, look about you."

Sometimes you just have to laugh

And I did. When I opened up the web browser on my husband's computer last Sunday to look up how my chosen horses had done that weekend and saw that War Pass had not only failed to win his 3-year old stakes debut, but had in fact been beaten badly, I laughed. I laughed because all along I'd had an inkling he was 90% hype and 10% value. I laughed because he couldn't even win against the moderate stakes competition he was completely expected to dominate. I laughed because thousands of unimaginative favorite-players just lost their already grossly undervalued tickets.

And then I remembered I had put him in my stable too. So I guess I'm one of those unimaginative favorite-players. Sometimes you laugh because humor is all you've got. That was sort of my whole weekend. I sincerely hope my horseplaying colleague didn't actually take any of my advice, because I know he's got 3 kids in private school and needs the money.

Rebel Stakes

My streak of bad luck began here when one of my up and coming beauties from the RttR first draft completely failed to fire. Z Fortune was a disappointing and unexplainable 5th. The eventual winner of the race was Sierra Sunset, last seen trailing in second behind Denis of Cork in the Southwest Stakes. I have to admit, that that race actually turned me off of Sierra Sunset, who appeared to be fading in the stretch as opposed to dead heat thrid placers Libety Bull and Sacred Journey, who looked like they could pound on for another furlong if necessary. Turns out it was Sacred Journey this time who, after setting some pretty hot fractions, yeilded to Sierra Sunset's stalking presence. King's Silver Son, coming from the maiden ranks, got the place and proved he has a future and Isabull, who I admit I completely ignored after his 7th place in the Southwest, came up for third.

1. Z Fortune- 5th
2. Sacred Journey- last
3. King's Silver Son- 2nd

WinStar Derby

Let me just say first that I knew Liberty Bull had it in him to win this race. I just thought that Poni Colada had it too. Once again, proving I know jack about handicapping, my favorite came in seventh. However, I did retain some of my clout in this one, as maiden winner Screen to Screen also proved that he has a future, coming in second.

1. Poni Colada- 7th
2. Liberty Bull- 1st
3. Screen to Screen- 3rd

Tampa Bay Derby

War Pass.

War Pass, War Pass, War Pass. What happened? Can a little bump at the start really faze you that much? Does having hindquarters churning in front of you and dirt kicked in your face throw your entire world-view out of whack?

Apparently.

Nick Zito is 'mystified'. As far as he can tell there's no physical reason why his unbeaten, 1-20 (or 1-9, depending on where you look...regardless, who would put money on that?) favorite, presumptive Derby star completely failed to fire. Luckily for him, he's still got a barn of impressive Derby hopefuls to fall back on (if necessary). Meanwhile, Big Truck, who was clearly the class of the field once the 900 pound gorilla was removed from the picture, came on for an impressive win. Even his trainer Barclay Tagg seemed surprised; he'd told the jockey to try for second and hope something happened to War Pass.

Is Tagg Irish? Was this perhaps some St. Patty's day luck coming early this year? The world may never know.

1. War Pass- last
2. Big Truck- 1st
3. Dynamic Wayne- 3rd

San Felipe Stakes

And here we have the route race full of sprinters, most of whom I didn't think could get the distance. Whoops, my bad. Looks like most of them handled the stretch out to the mile and 1/16 without too much trouble. Georgie Boy found a second wind in the late stretch to edge out fellow speed demons Gayego and Bob Black Jack. Still, I would't look for a Derby contender to come from the ranks of the top three here. It's still a synthetic track, and they're still primarily quick front runners who have never much been challenged by a late closer.

1. Georgie Boy- 1st (hey, I actually got one!)
2. Indian Sun- 4th (still loving the Indian Charlie)
3. Shediak- 8th

And that concludes our embarrassing recap of the 3-year old male division. Now let's move on to equally embarrassing (but shorter) recaps of all the other weekend races.

Cicada Stakes

Carolyn's Cat took this one wire to wire. No one else even had a chance of catching her after Dill or No Dill (who had previously beaten the winner in the Ruthless Stakes) chucked the bit. Throbbin Heart experienced some bumping at the start that might have thrown her off course, but then so did the eventual winner. If every horse that got bothered a little out of the gate could be automatically excused for losing...well...then we wouldn't all be shaking our heads about War Pass.

1. Throbbin Heart- nowhere
2. Dill Or No Dill- 3rd
3. Ready for Fortune- 2nd

WinStar Oaks

Okay, Sky Mom did win a division of the Martha Washington...whatever the heck that means. She also won here. My favorite, R Charlie's Angel, cut some near suicidal fractions early on, but held on for third. Whither Grace Anatomy this year?

1. R Charlie's Angel- 3rd
2. Grace Anatomy- nowhere
3. Distorted Passion- 4th

Florida Oaks

In her first time around 2 turns, Awesome Chic came in with her first stakes victory. Never out of the money in her 5 lifetime starts, she broke her maiden with a 17.5 length win last year...which is information I could have used last week.

1. Calico Bay- 4th
2. Unfolding Wish- 7th
3. My Baby Baby- 3rd

Hillsborough Stakes

Okay, Lear's Princess is officially 'on notice'. Once again she lost to perpetual rival Dreaming of Anna (who, one must admit, is one heck of a rival), but this time she couldn't even make a good show of it. Couldn't handle the track my butt.

1. Lear's Princess- 4th
2. Dreaming of Anna- 1st
2. Mary Louhana- 3rd

Skip Away Handicap

Gottcha Gold came off of a dismal 9th place finish in the Sunshine Millions to take the race. Longshot (40-1) and leader for most of the race Mr. Umphrey held on for second, while Hunting came in for the show. Seriously, can we just finish this parade of poor picking performances?

1. Frost Giant-4th
2. Dr. Pleasure- 7th
3. Hunting- 3rd

Total points gained in my RttR stable this weekend? Zippo. Better luck next week. Perhaps I should stick to show bets for a while. I had 7 out of 9 of my show bets finish in the money, and some were not exaclty short priced.

Rebel Rouser

I bet you think I forgot this important Derby prep? Yes, well, you'd be correct. I didn't exactly forget that it existed, nor that it was going on this weekend, but somehow I forgot tho include my analysis in yesterday's preview. So, I decided to go a bit more in depth and make it pretty, to make up for my stupidity.

Rebel Stakes

With Denis of Cork flying off to New York (hah, that rhymes!), the character of this race has completely changed. However, there are 9 horses remaining to play with

Isabull

Isabull is apparently a somewhat popular name for AKC registered bull mastiffs and bull terriers...which I found when trying to get a good picture of him. He's on the left in the picture, shown being just beaten out by his close relation Liberty Bull in the inaugural Smarty Jones Stakes. By Holy Bull out of the Miswaki mare Miss Isadora, he could only manage a 6th place in his last time out in the Southwest Stakes (g.III). He's shown he's got some run in him, but in all honesty, he hasn't actually won anything since breaking his maiden last year.

Photo: Coady Photography

Sierra Sunset

Though thoroughly beaten by Denis of Cork as the place horse in the Southwest Stakes, Sierra Sunset (Bertrando-Toot Sweet, by Pirate's Bounty) showed he has some ability. The annoying thing is how long it's taken him to prove it. This will be the 3-year old's 11th lifetime start, which is a considerable number in this day and age. I mean, look at Pyro, who's likely to be stuck in the breeding shed before his 4-year old season and may never see 10 starts in his life. However, with those ten previous starts he's had, Sierra Sunset has only managed a lifetime record of 3-3-1. Still impressive, since the majority of his races were in stakes company. Personally, though, I just don't think he'll make it today.

Stone Bird

This horse is being touted as D. Wayne Lukas' last chance at the Derby this year. I was, at one time, a huge fan of Lukas. I actually took a covert photo of him in the paddock of the 1996 Breeder's Cup, and it's sad to see how the mighty have fallen. However, I wouldn't count him out yet. He's got a few good years left in him still. Meanwhile, Stone Bird (Grindstone-Birdcage, by Kris S.) won a one mile race in the OBS championships by an impressive 5 and a half lengths. Prior to that, he was a maiden winner of little distinction, but a nice pedigree.

Sacred Journey

Before his last trip in the Southwest Stakes I questioned whether Sacred Journey (Unbridled's Song-Thiscatsforcary, by Storm Cat) could go the distance. Prior to that he was just an allowance winner at 6 furlongs. He sort of proved himself in that matter by dead heating for third place with Liberty Bull. If one takes into account the fact that the race was his first around two turns and his first time in stakes company, the poor thing was dealing with several new variables he'd never seen before, and still acquitted himself well. I said after that race that he was a horse to watch, I meant it.

Golden Yank

Golden Yank (Yankee Gentlemen-Golden Charm, by Strike the Gold) was unbeaten in two minor stakes races at a mile before taking third in the mile and 1/16 Delta Jackpot. I may have mentioned that race previously, and my complete lack of interest in the dead heat winners thereof, Z Humor and Turf War. I've been proven correct about those two, as they've turned up less than impressive following their mutual victory. Golden Yank, who was only a neck behind the two in a blanket finish, was clearly close on their heels. But if they couldn't get it done in later races, why would I assume he'd be any better?

He's Eze

Great, here's another silly name, at least this colt can blame his dam. He's Eze (Silver Deputy-Eze, by Williamstown) has not been performing up to the potential his 2-year old season might have suggested. He was fifth in the Southwest Stakes, fourth in the Lecomte, and hasn't really shown any improvement.

King's Silver Son

Now here's a horse I'd heard nothing about until this week, and one may wonder why. By Mizzen Mast out of River Dyna by Dynaformer, this colt is only a maiden winner at a mile. He won his first race after being a bridesmaid 5 times, finishing 4th once and second 4 times in succession. That's the definition of consistent, even if it's only in middling company. Although he's never seen anything like stakes company, he's had a good long layoff since his win and has been training well. He posted a bullet earlier in the month and Steve Asmussen would not just put a former plodder into this type of quality stakes without good reason.

Anak Nakal

I'm sure I've profiled this guy before. And I'm also sure I've never picked him. I'm not entirely sure why I don't like him; by Victory Gallop out of Misk by Quiet American, his pedigree is nice for the Derby. He was badly beaten in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but that was a pretty odd race and I'd generally be willing to throw it out. Before that he was first and second in his two stakes tries at two. I don't know, he just completely fails to spark my interest.

Photo: EquiSportPhotos.com

Z Fortune

A somewhat surprised looking second his last time out in Pyro's dynamic Risen Star (g.III), this colt was clearly the best of the remainder that day. Prior to that he took the Lecomte Stakes (g.III) and won two lower class races. Being undefeated but for a second place to Pyro, he's inserted himself as the likely third favorite in everybody's Derby fantasy stables. Denis of Cork would have given him a run for his money, but Denis just isn't up for a challenge today. Even then, I would have given the edge to Z Fortune. By Distorted Humor out of the A.P. Indy mare Offtheoldblock, he's bred to run all day. And another thing, the pretty little grey puts me in mind of the late Winning Colors; their body types and running styles are completely different, of course, but the Jackson Pollack splash of white across the face is what does it

Photo: Vanessa Ng

1. Z Fortune
2. Sacred Journey
3. King's Silver Son

Weekend Preview

So, my co-worker who actually bets on horses, and who I've been asking again and again all spring "Hey, did you see that last race!" finally came into my office to talk horses. Apparently, he's in the market for tips and likes that I waste my time looking up tons of horse related trivia so that he doesn't have to. I hope I can give him some good advice, becuase then at least I'll be doing someone monetary good (or not, as the case may be). Regardless, his enthusiasm gave me a good reason to start analyzing all the weekend's premier races a bit early this week.

San Felipe Stakes

For a 1 mile and 1/16 race we sure seem to have a lot of horses here that have never gone two turns. That, actually, makes my decisions a little easier. It eliminates Gayego, Go for Cover and Bob Black Jack. I saw Bob's world record setting move during Sunshine Millions Day (thanks TiVo!), and I was never less impressed by a record setter. That track was criminally fast. I'm amazed he got out of that race with his sesamoids intact. Regardless, I don't think he's built to go a mile, let alone the longer distances required by the spring classics. Southwest was 3rd in his last start (on turf) and was 8th behind Yankee Bravo before that. He hasn't won since October, and I don't look for him to do so here.

Meanwhile, Georgie Boy (Tribal Rule-Ippodamia, by Peterhof) has never gone beyond 7 furlongs, but he's got a much more relaxed manner that makes it look like he could go farther. Plus, those last 2 stakes at 7f, he's won handily. Indian Sun (Indian Charlie-Unequivocal, by Alleged) is worth a look if only because of the amazing streak I've been having recently with his sire. Last out he won a mile allowance race (notably on the turf), and as such is one of the field's few two turn horses. Prior to that he was 4th in the Robert B. Lewis and 2nd behind El Gato Malo in the San Rafael. Shediak (Selkirk) was one of France's top 2-year olds last year. They must have seen something in him to bring him to the States. He hasn't raced in a looooong time, but he's won up to 7.5 furlongs previously, and he's got Julien Leparoux (who knows how to handle a quality horse from the continent) on his back.

I seriously could not find any information on the other contenders.

1. Georgie Boy
2. Indian Sun
3. Shediak

WinStar Derby

This race is ungraded (an ungraded $600,000 purse race, what the heck?!) and the talent which has showed up to it is hovering just around that non-level. As such, don't go expecting your Derby favorite to come out of this field. That being said, there are a couple of hard headed horses in here who look like they can maybe get it done.

Poni Colada (Volponi-Coconut Willamina, by Pleasant Colony), a cutesy named local favorite won his last time out over this track by 8 lenghts. The extra 1/16 of a mile doesn't look to disturb him either. His major knock is that he was 6th in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but I'm willing to throw that performance out. Ablaze With Spirit's (American Spirit) main claim to fame is being Poni Colada's lesser regarded stablemate (although he also won the Jim Orbit Stakes at a mile recently). Cape Time and Banker's Way were second and third respectively to Poni Colada in his Borderland Derby romp.

A winner over Poni Colada in the Smarty Jones Stakes was Liberty Bull (Holy Bull), who I was briefly fond of because I like the way he hunkered down and fought for victory (and possibly because of the similarity between his name and that of a horse I happen to own a part of...no, not a race horse...I wish). Though I was not completely turned off of him following his dead heat third place effort in the Southwest Stakes, I certainly wasn't impressed.

Screen to Screen is a maiden winner, and normally I would pay him no more heed than he deserved. But he was nosed out for first in his last race, an allowance at 1 mile and 1/16, and given the ho-hum quality of the rest of the field, I've a mind to take a chance on his long price. Winsome Charm (Silver Charm) was second last out to Bob Black Jack's world record performance, which is still not something to shout about in a route race.

1. Poni Colada
2. Liberty Bull
3. Screen to Screen

Tampa Bay Derby

Ah, you were waiting for this profile weren't you? Well, so was I. And I think we've all been waiting for the top horse in the field to finally be making his appearance. Enter War Pass, stage left.

This from The Blood Horse this morning:

Handicappers who take on the $300,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. III) will probably
find their challenge not in choosing a winner, but in selecting the order of
finish behind Robert LaPenta’s War Pass.

I don't think I could have said it better myself. Except that I would't ever say something like that. Call it a foolish prejudice. Call it intentional blindness. Tell me I'm a fool and a horrible handicapper to boot. I hate favorites. I hate favorites at three who essentially haven't raced since their 2-year old season (a walkover allowance race does not count!). I hate classic speed horses in route races. Well, that's not true. I love speed horses. Nothing gets my heart pumping better than a beautifully muscled thoroughbred going all out for the turn, ears pinned, jock low on his neck. I have this old video of Native Diver that shows him in a morning workout...it's enough to make one cry at the beauty of it...but I'm getting off topic. The point is that I just cannot, for the life of me, put my heart and soul on a speed-demon wonder-horse 2-year old making what amounts to his firt real 3-year old start. I felt the same way about Street Sense last year. Oh, I had him in my stable. Everybody did! But he was my least favorite horse on the trail. I couldn't have cared less about him, and I still feel that way.

Mind you, Street Sense won the Derby last year, so that just goes to show you what silly things prejudices are.

War Pass (Cherokee Run-Vue, by Mr. Prospector) has done everything anyone has ever asked of him. He's won on good ground and slop. He's won from 6f to a mile and 1/16. He's won against the best horses of his generation: Pyro, Z Humor, Kodiak Kowboy (also making his comeback this weekend). He's trained sharply for this contest. He's never let anyhorse put a nostril in front of his. His past performace chart shows a succession of one's - first at the start, first at the half, the three-quarters, the finish. Perhaps Pyro could catch him if given another chance. Perhaps Bob Black Jack would rabbit him to exhaustion. Visionaire, Yankee Bravo, and Z Fortune have all shown promise and might be a concern. Heck, Indian Blessing, were she 100%, might show him her haunches.

And none of those horses are in this race. In fact, everyone has been so terrified of War Pass that the Tampa Bay Derby is all but a void. A step up from the allowance of two weeks ago? Hardly.

Atoned (Repent-Amidst, by Icecapade) hasn't raced since since November (where he was a close second behind Court Vision in the Remsen (g.II)) and hasn't won since last August. Big Truck (Hook and Ladder-Just a Ginny, by Go For Gin) was a hard closing second behind Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. He was 4th behind Court Vision and Atoned in the Remsen. Dynamic Wayne (Eltish) won a mile and 1/16 allowance over this track and followed it up with a 4th place in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Gentlement James was 2nd in the Pasco Stakes (at 7 furlongs) back in January. None of the remainder have ever done anything in stakes company, or since breaking their maidens.

So, here I am. Forced to play a favorite against my will. Sigh.

1. War Pass

2. Big Truck

3. Dynamic Wayne

Sunland Park Oaks

And here we find all the fillies too chicken to go up against Indian Blessing and Proud Spell. But really, who can blame them. R Charlie's Angel (Indian Charlie-Yes Ma'am, by Cormorant) should get my nod if only because her sire's been so good to me recently (yes, that is getting a tad old). To add to this she recently won the Island Fashion Stakes at a mile (over Snake Proof, another member of this field), and before that broke her maiden in an impressive 5.5 lengths win.

Meanwhile Grace Anatomy (Aldebaran-Propriety, by Storm Cat), while not exactly performing as she did last year, finishing a disappointing 5th in the Las Virgenes (g.I) last month at a mile and 2nd in the 1 mile and 1/16 San Ysabel in January, is still something to look at. Distorted Passion was second in a 1 mile allowance in January and has some nice breeding about her. Despite what The Blood Horse would have me believe per their article yesterday, Sky Mom did not win the Martha Washington Stakes.

1. R Charlie's Angel

2. Grace Anatomy

3. Distorted Passion

Florida Oaks

And on the undercard of War Pass's presumptive romp, we have yet more fillies. Elusive Lady was eased after her last attempt in the 6.5f Old Hat Stakes (g.III), which has been her only start this year. Calico Bay recently won a mile and 1/16 race in the OBS Championship by 8 lengths. Awesome Chic and Unfolding Wish are both trying a route for the first time. Unfolding Wish is 3 for 4 lifetime, and making her first start this year. My Baby Baby, No Use Denying and Dee's Rose were second, third and fourth respectively, in a one mile Suncoast Stakes that was won by a monster (not here today) who set a track record.

1. Calico Bay

2. Unfolding Wish

3. My Baby Baby

Hillsborough Stakes

I backed Lear's Princess (Lear Fan- Pretty City, by Carson City) over Dreaming of Anna (Rahy-Justenuffheart, by Broad Brush) in the Endeavour Stakes a couple weeks back, and it turned out to be a poor decision. Mind you, my choice lost by only the barest of margins to the former juvenile champion filly. It's true, Dreaming of Anna has appeared all but unbeatable on turf, but again, I'm going to back her rival. Perhaps I just want to be contrary.

1. Lear's Princess

2. Dreaming of Anna

2. Mary Louhana

Cicada Stakes

I honestly don't know much of anything about the horses in this race, so instead I'll tell you what I do know about Cicada (Bryan G.-Satsuma, by Bossuet). She was a champion race mare for the Meadow Stud in the 1960's, winning, amongst other fine races, the Kentucky Oaks. Being from the Meadow's fine line of blue hen mares (descending from their foundation mare Hildene) and being a stakes winner herself, she was sent to the prime stallion that they could afford at the conclusion of her career. As such, she became part of the Meadow Stud's infamous "coin flip" deal with Ogden Phipps, whereby the Chenery's would send two top quality mares to the Phipp's top stallion Bold Ruler for two years running, and the owning parties would then flip to determine who got first choice of the ensuing offspring. A bit of a tangle, as breeding arrangements go, but not completely unheard of. It was a great way for the Phippses, who didn't have too many quality mares of their own, to get fine babies out of their champion and multiple-time leading sire, Bold Ruler. The system would, however, eventually fail them.

Cicada was sent to Bold Ruler in the spring of 1969 as part of the coin flip deal, however, she failed to conceive. The other horse sent that year was another blue hen Meadow mare named Somethingroyal. Somethingroyal had also been sent to Bold Ruler the year before, and produced an uninspiring filly from him that spring. She would, of course, produce a chestnut foal from him the following season. The Phippses won the coin toss in 1969, and chose the unispiring Somethingroyal filly (the Meadow Stud, by default got a Bold Ruler-Hasty Matelda colt named Rising River). However, by the rules of the game, the Meadow Stud came into possession of Somethingroyal's chestnut colt the following year, as the Phippses were required to automatically select Cicada's non-existent get.

Thus, does Cicada fit into one of the most famous stories from American horse racing history.

1. Throbbin Heart

2. Dill Or No Dill

3. Ready for Fortune

Okay, I admit I had to look up her pedigree info, but the rest I knew.

Skip Away Handicap

I won't say much about the older boys, but I've always been something of a fan of Frost Giant (Giant's Causeway) and I'd like to see him make a triumphant retun here.

1. Frost Giant

2. Hunting

3. Dr. Pleasure

In other news

- It appears that Kingmambo (Mr. Prospector-Miesque, by Nureyev) is back on stud duty. This pleases me, because I think he is one of the most consistent sires out there, and unfortunately is sometimes overlooked in the States because of his penchant for getting grass horses. Plus, I get a certain perverse joy from seeing stallions perform as they should, both on the track and in the shed. My dear husband will never forget the Derby morning (I'd been up watching the TV coverage since 9am) when I shouted for him to come in to the family room. He raced in to see what was the matter. "Look," I said, pointing to the screen with joy, "A Storm Cat cover!"

- Trouble appears to be brewing around Thistledown Racecourse in Cleveland, Ohio. Apparently, the track can't come to an agreement with the state regarding how many days of live racing to host in the coming year. I think the state needs to get a grip here. Do they really imagine that Thistledown wouldn't keep itself open more days if it was at all possible? Do they not understand that horse racing, though dear my heart and the hearts of any who would bother to read this blog, is in essence a niche sport? That we're doing our best to drag in the crowds, but sometimes it's just not possible? Thistledown was the 2nd track I ever visited, and as such it has a special place in my heart. I would hate to see it closed for a simple failure to negotiate.

Now what's that supposed to mean?

Buried towards the bottom of my morning thoroughbred news was the nuggest that Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday-Unbridled Girl, by Unbridled), three for three lifetime after his solid Southwest Stakes (g.III) win, will not be going on to perform in the Rebel Stakes (g.III). Rather, he'll be pointed at either the Wood Memorial (g.I) or the Illinois Derby (g.II). My question is...why?

Usually, when a trainer decides to uproot his three year old in the middle of the Derby prep season and ship them to an entirely different track, there's a pretty good reason. Although they generally take it well, no horse likes being bounced around in a trailer for hours without good reason. In fact, there's usually only 2 reasons a trainer would do this: (1) to get his horse used to a different type of track (which these days means switching from synthetics to a true dirt track similar to Churchill's) or (2) they're looking for lesser competition in order to get their horse a win (and maybe some graded earnings). As the Rebel would be run on good old fashioned dirt, one would assume that the second option was the one appealing to Denis' trainer. Hey, it worked well for Visionaire!

And certainly, Arkansas is a hotbed of talent. It's become a traitional route to the Derby recently, and the Rebel Stakes last year was won by Curlin himself. This year, Z Fortune will likely be there, trying to follow up his strong 2nd place performance to Pyro in the Risen Star. Then there's the Bull Twins, both of whom Denis handily beat in the Southwest Stakes. Also Sierra Sunset, who was second to Denis of Cork in the Southwest and Sacred Journey who dead heated for 3rd. Who else? Stone Bird, an impressive allowance winner and Lukas trainee? Anyone else? Anyone? Beuler?

Doesn't look like there's a whole lot going on in Arkansas now that Denis has left the building. Certainly nothing like what they're facing down in Florida.

And for comparison, who is Denis likely to face in the Wood? Well, possibly Visionaire, if his connections don't decide to give him a layoff. Giant Moon is almost a lock for this race, and he'll be looking for some redemption after his embarrasment in the slop during the Gotham. Also the rapidly improving Texas Wildcatter, the surprisingly not bad Larry's Revenge, the still hanging in there Roman Emperor...and perhaps Ling Ling Qi, Holidaze, Southern Terminus, or Laysh Laysh Laysh (the performances and/or scratching of which in the Gotham may also have been caused by the off track). Last week New York may have been the weak state, not so now. And oh yeah, War Pass is eyeing the Wood as well.

As for Illinois, there doesn't look to be too much competition there, but it appears to be a better fit for Denis' floundering stablemate Blackberry Road. So he'll likely be going in the Wood...but I still don't know why.

There is, of course another possibility. If Denis of Cork goes for the Wood he's likely to have only 2 starts at 3 before the Derby. His trainers have noted as much, saying that he's not a big horse who can really take a heavy schedule. That's the sort of comment I don't like to hear from trainers. Can the Derby be won off 4 lifetime starts (and only 2 at age three)? Yes, it's been done. But I personally don't consider it preferable. It seems to be taking uneccessary chances.

In other words, it's seems like something you do if your horse doesn't come out of his last race wolfing down his feed. If he's just a little off. If you think he really needs (not just would like, but physicially needs) an extra couple weeks of rest. I took a look at the reports after the Southwest, and there's no indication from the trainer that Denis came out of it in anything but fine form. However, there's also none of the usual "He looks great!" and "He's eager to get back on the track!" comments like you usually see either. Just vague references to the trainer's intentions to keep him in Arkansas. Suspicious. Not very, just enough to fill me with a nagging unease.

And right after I added him to my stable. Perfect.

Eating Crow

This weekend, I went with several friends to a Brazilian steakhouse and was visited time and again by waiters carrying steaming skewers full of various and sundry meats. Little did I know that crow was on the menu. Towards the end of the protein filled evening, I mentioned that I had several horses running that afternoon and that I would like to know how the Gotham had gone. This prompted one of my friends to whip out his brand spankin' new iPod touch and link up to the internet. It was thus I got the majority of my racing news for the weekend.

El Camino Real Derby

I start with this race not because I was particularly impressed with the finish, and not because I think the winner has any real chance at the Derby this year, but becuase I am forced by the outcome to make an apology. Autism Awareness, I apologize for making fun of your name. Mind you, I still don't think it's a terribly good name, nor do I think it's a particularly good way to raise awareness of autism, but what can I say? Paying $126 to win, Autism Awareness (Tannersmyman) came in first a length and a half in front of Nikki'sgoldensteed (who was apparently jumping shadows on the curve and having trouble settling down), with Tres Borrachos in third. I realized I should start posting my picks from earlier in the week with how the horses actually finished up:

1. Nikki'sgoldentsteed- 2nd
2. Coast Guard- Waaaay back
3. Tres Borrachos- 3rd

And in case you were wondering, Autism Awareness has a full sister named Cure Autism.

Gotham Stakes

And in another embarrasing performance of handicapping, we have the Gotham. In weather so foggy that most of the race could not be seen, and over a sloppy track, Visionaire (Grand Slam) came home to nose out Texas Wildcatter in the final strides. Now, I know what you're thinking. How can you complain when one of your stable horses won? Well, that's because I had three (yes 3!) horses in the race. Where were my other 2 horses? My New York specialists? The only comfort I have is that the off track might have affected their chances (goodness, I hope that's what was wrong). Apparently, Visionaire is heading back to Florida to train, but given Michael Matz's clearly ingenious move to slip his prime Derby prospect out of Pyro-land, he's likely to return to NY to race in the Wood Memorial (g.I). Saratoga Russell set nice fractions even given the slop, and will hopefully be put back into some sprints where he can shine.

1. Giant Moon- Last
2. Visionaire- First
3. Roman Emperor- 4th
4. Texas Wildcatter- 2nd
Photo: Coglianese Photos


Fair Ground Oaks

Next on the list is the Fair Ground Oaks (g.II), and would you believe it, I called the trifecta! Which is, of course, a terribly difficult thing to do in a field of four. However, I was 100%, absolutely, without a doubt wrong about Indian Blessing winning it. The poor girl had to taste defeat for the first time in her life, and to her long time rival Proud Spell (Proud Citizen-Pacific Spell, by Langfur). Bob Baffert, of course, knew his filly had it in her all along. Indian Blessing, apparently, failed to rate on the backstretch and fought her rider, tiring herself out before the end. Guess she's still got some learnin' to do.

1. Indian Blessing- 2nd
2. Proud Spell- 1st
3. Acacia- 3rd

Duncan F. Kenner Stakes

Surprising pretty much no one (except those who purposely didn't pick him because they thought they were already backing too many favorites as it was), Euroears won the Duncan F. Kenner. Mind you, I can't seem to find much other info on it. Oh, and is Euroears supposed to be a Disneyland Paris reference of some sort? It is kind of a funny name.

New Orleans Handicap

And rounding out the field of bad weekend picks, Circular Quay (Thunder Gulch) stalked the pace, circled 3-wide, and fought Grasshopper to a place in the stretch. I never liked Circular Quay much. I still don't. Especially now that he's made such a fool out of me. None (none!) of my horses were even in the money. Even the game old Brass Hat was "never a factor", coming in 4th.

Louisiana Derby

Finally, I did something right. But it's not all about me. In fact, it's not about me at all. It's about the horses, and in this case one horse in particular. That horse being Pyro. Pyro who had a bunch of people questioning whether his last to first Risen Star finish was just a fluke. People questioning whether the slow pace of that former race had just made everything too easy and set him up for a perfect trip. People whose questions have now, hopefully, been answered.

Pyro (Pulpit-Wild Vision, by Wild Again) is for real.

I had to watch the replay as soon as I heard abut the outcome, so I took over my friend's computer. The early fractions were (to my mind anyways) still slow, set by My Pal Charlie (Indian Charlie), who aquitted himself well in his first stakes race. Instead of placing himself dead last, as previously, Pyro arranged himself comfortably in mid-pack. He then looked to be almost caught behind horses in the early stretch, but managed to find a hole and plow through it. He won by 3 lengths...certainly not winning with a Curlin sense of easyness, but making a statement nonetheless. Yankee Bravo proved that he can switch to real dirt and that he has some class. As I'm now allowed to add three new horses to my RTTR stable, he's got himself a stall.

1. Pyro- 1st
2. Yankee Bravo- 3rd
3. My Pal Charlie- 2nd

There is, however, one question remaining, and it's one we'll all likely be pondering until the first Saturday in May. Who's the better horse, War Pass or Pyro? Will War Pass tire out at the longer distances? Will Pyro be able to spring a patented come from behind, field looping move to catch up to the blazing speedster? Will, as is equally likely at this point, they both end up with metaphorical egg (and non-metaphorical mud) on their faces as some other talented colt leaves them in his tracks. I, for one, am on pins and needles.

Oh, and here's a funny story. So, after I hijacked my friends' computer and forced them to watch this race they asked me how much I had won. I blinked at them. What, me put money down? Where? With what time? Don't get me wrong, it's not that I'm against gambling, I just don't myself care all that much for the betting. To me it's all about the horses. So, I checked out the stats for this race and noted that, had I actually taken the time out to place a $6 boxed trifecta bet at some off-track betting spot, I would have brought home $250. Everyone encouraged me to actually put my money where my mouth was. I'm still skeptical (see above horrid failures).

Photo: Alexander Barkoff

Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap

Hah! I called Proudinsky (Slivano-Proudeyes, by Dashing Blade) in this one too. Thus have I redeemed myself with older males on turf (okay, not really).

In other news

- Hystericalady (Distorted Humor-Sacramentada, by Northair.), who I've been a fan of ever since last year when she posted a blazing work that made me blink and question whether I was seeing things, won the Azeri Stakes. It was her first win in a while, and her first time on dirt for a while. One might hope her connections would keep her there.

Yet more weekend previews

I've been stuck at a fascinating seminar (those were sarcastic italics, in case you couldn't figure it out) the past two days and haven't been able to feed my addiction.

Fair Grounds Oaks

There are all of 4 horses to choose from in this race. Is it even worth calling a trifecta? Probably not.

Pretty much everyone is in agreement that champion Indian Blessing (Indian Charlie-Shameful, by Flying Chevron) is a lock to remain undefeated. So far she's won on regular dirt and synthetic surface, she's won in sprints and has stretched out to the 1 mile 1/16 distance of this race previously. She's performed on fast and off tracks. She's faced stakes competition at every asking since she broke her maiden. She's defeated the talented Proud Spell twice. The damn filly just won't let anyone get a nose in front of her. In all honesty, what could go wrong? She could break down. She could get tired. She could run out of luck.

But most likely she'll win.

Her premier competition in the race is Proud Spell (Proud Citizen-Pacific Spell, by Langfur). Proud Spell has also performed well in sprints and routes, in on and off tracks, in quality fields. In fact, the only thing that has ever appeared to stand in the way of Proud Spell's total domination of her contemporaries is Indian Blessing.

The media is playing this up as a match race between the two, and that's always a worry. Match races rarely ever turn out to be what everyone thinks they will be. But the field is so small, and the remaining two horses such non-comparable competition, one could hardly imagine the race turning out any differently. Acacia (Cherokee Run-Checkered Flag, by A.P. Indy) has a late February maiden win to her name (in five starts). Meanwhile, Wisconsin Lady (Stephen Got Even-Tomisue's Pleasure, by Seeking the Gold) was second in allowance company her last out, third and fifth before that, and won her maiden race last November. Do you hear that noise? That's two trainers rubbing their hands together in anticipation of 3rd place money.

Proud Spell's trainer has stated that he's going to change tactics with his charge this time, and send her at Indian Blessing sooner. He also stated that, if he had a rabbit to use, he would. It seems to me a poor choice to announce one's intentions to the world, but I guess he feels comfortable having the only filly who can manage even to sweat in Indian Blessing's shadow. He knows that eventually, the champion will slip up. She'll run out of luck. And then he'll be able to say he knew his horse had it in her from the start.

1. Indian Blessing
2. Proud Spell
3. Acacia

I seriously feel dirty even for making these picks. Let's move on to the old men, shall we?

As others have pointed out, it's highly unlikely that all of the five presumptive favorites from this week's races, despite their recent domination, will come in first. I've now chosen three favorites in Pyro, Giant Moon and Indian Blessing. Likely, one of these three will fall, making me look silly. However, I'll compensate a little for my non-originality, by playing up some high priced horses in the following races.

Duncan F. Kenner Stakes

There's quite a bit of speed in this race, lead, of course, by the undefeated Euroears. Someone (likely, several someones) will challenge him today. And with the extra furlong, he just might get beat. Sempahore Man (Formal Gold) is coming off a nice win and has been posting bullets. Same with Noonmark. But here again is speed and more speed.

Truelyonbroadway (Yes It's True) has shown he can rate and, though he lost to Euroears last out, it was his first time on turf and he was run quite wide. Roi Maudit (Elusive Quality) can close and, though he lost to Noonmark last out, it was on a sloppy track he didn't seem to relish. King of the Roxy (Littlexpectations) was my Derby second choice last year. I liked his style. He's been off recuperating since August, and he didn't look all that great before his layoff. But I still have a soft spot for the old guy.

1. Truelyonbroadway
2. Semaphore Man
3. Euroears

New Orleans Handicap

I feel better betting against Grasshopper than I do betting against any of this weekend's other favorties. I think he's hit his apogee and has nowhere else to go but back down in the ranks. Meanwhile, Brass Hat recently finished 4th in a Donn full of class. He's a game old boy. I was never much of a fan of Circular Quay. Encaustic looks to be scratched. Silver Lord and Magna Graduate both looked good following Grasshopper in the Mineshaft, and there's nothing to suggest they won't put in a similar performance in this race.

1. Brass Hat
2. Silver Lord
3. Magna Graduate

Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap

Given my recent "luck" with turf males, I'm pretty much staying out of this one. But I do kinda like Proudinsky.