Now what's that supposed to mean?

Buried towards the bottom of my morning thoroughbred news was the nuggest that Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday-Unbridled Girl, by Unbridled), three for three lifetime after his solid Southwest Stakes (g.III) win, will not be going on to perform in the Rebel Stakes (g.III). Rather, he'll be pointed at either the Wood Memorial (g.I) or the Illinois Derby (g.II). My question is...why?

Usually, when a trainer decides to uproot his three year old in the middle of the Derby prep season and ship them to an entirely different track, there's a pretty good reason. Although they generally take it well, no horse likes being bounced around in a trailer for hours without good reason. In fact, there's usually only 2 reasons a trainer would do this: (1) to get his horse used to a different type of track (which these days means switching from synthetics to a true dirt track similar to Churchill's) or (2) they're looking for lesser competition in order to get their horse a win (and maybe some graded earnings). As the Rebel would be run on good old fashioned dirt, one would assume that the second option was the one appealing to Denis' trainer. Hey, it worked well for Visionaire!

And certainly, Arkansas is a hotbed of talent. It's become a traitional route to the Derby recently, and the Rebel Stakes last year was won by Curlin himself. This year, Z Fortune will likely be there, trying to follow up his strong 2nd place performance to Pyro in the Risen Star. Then there's the Bull Twins, both of whom Denis handily beat in the Southwest Stakes. Also Sierra Sunset, who was second to Denis of Cork in the Southwest and Sacred Journey who dead heated for 3rd. Who else? Stone Bird, an impressive allowance winner and Lukas trainee? Anyone else? Anyone? Beuler?

Doesn't look like there's a whole lot going on in Arkansas now that Denis has left the building. Certainly nothing like what they're facing down in Florida.

And for comparison, who is Denis likely to face in the Wood? Well, possibly Visionaire, if his connections don't decide to give him a layoff. Giant Moon is almost a lock for this race, and he'll be looking for some redemption after his embarrasment in the slop during the Gotham. Also the rapidly improving Texas Wildcatter, the surprisingly not bad Larry's Revenge, the still hanging in there Roman Emperor...and perhaps Ling Ling Qi, Holidaze, Southern Terminus, or Laysh Laysh Laysh (the performances and/or scratching of which in the Gotham may also have been caused by the off track). Last week New York may have been the weak state, not so now. And oh yeah, War Pass is eyeing the Wood as well.

As for Illinois, there doesn't look to be too much competition there, but it appears to be a better fit for Denis' floundering stablemate Blackberry Road. So he'll likely be going in the Wood...but I still don't know why.

There is, of course another possibility. If Denis of Cork goes for the Wood he's likely to have only 2 starts at 3 before the Derby. His trainers have noted as much, saying that he's not a big horse who can really take a heavy schedule. That's the sort of comment I don't like to hear from trainers. Can the Derby be won off 4 lifetime starts (and only 2 at age three)? Yes, it's been done. But I personally don't consider it preferable. It seems to be taking uneccessary chances.

In other words, it's seems like something you do if your horse doesn't come out of his last race wolfing down his feed. If he's just a little off. If you think he really needs (not just would like, but physicially needs) an extra couple weeks of rest. I took a look at the reports after the Southwest, and there's no indication from the trainer that Denis came out of it in anything but fine form. However, there's also none of the usual "He looks great!" and "He's eager to get back on the track!" comments like you usually see either. Just vague references to the trainer's intentions to keep him in Arkansas. Suspicious. Not very, just enough to fill me with a nagging unease.

And right after I added him to my stable. Perfect.