Let's get ready to RUMBLE!

With this Saturday marking D-35 until the Kentucky Derby, things are certainly getting hot around here. But not as hot as for:

The Duel in the Desert!!
(a.k.a. the Dubai World Cup)

For this race we have a case of taking Curlin out of the mix, and figuring the exacta. I know, I know...a whole bunch of us were doing this very same thing with the Tampa Bay Derby, and look what happened there. Maybe I've just bought in to all the hype, but I seriously don't see Curlin losing. Mind you, if he does, it will be to some fairly stiff international competition.

Sway Yed has got a pedigree I've never even heard of, which may account for why he's 7 years old, still a horse, and not living the life of Riley as a sire. Since 2005 he's never been worse than second (in 10 starts), has never raced less than 1 mile 1/8, and has excelled in both stakes and allowance company. Whoo, boy.

Well Armed gets props for coming in ahead of Heatseeker twice recently, but he's primarily a CA horse and if the switch from the California synthetic tracks doesn't get him, the travel likely will. I would have liked to see him race a little over there first.

Happy Boy seems comparatively outclassed here, and more of a turf specialist. Sorry, I can back only one South American per week, and he's not it.

Kocab at least has a pedigree I can recognize and admire. But his last win, though nice, was only over allowance company. Before that he seems to have struggled.

I really like Great Hunter, but he's already let me down several times this year. I'm afraid he may be losing his touch.

I love Premium Tap. I mean that. He's the definition of a consistent horse. Love him. Loved his daddy way back when. Loved his mommy's daddy even before that. Had him in my trifecta for this race last year, and that panned out well. He may be getting up there in years and not be at the top of his game, but he's never let me down yet. Until he does, he's got a devoted fan.

Vermillion looks like a killer. I question the ability of any dirt horse coming out of Japan, and especially with El Condor Pasa on top. He completely failed in this race last year. He seems to have done well for himself since then, but a close examination of his recent close rivals brings into question why the same names keep coming up again and again. Fighting your friends on your home turf is not like fighting foreign monsters in another country.

Count me among the many who think Jalil is overrated. You'd never catch me spending $9.7 million on any horse. However, he is pretty hard to fault. There's no indication to me that his competition has been anything but top level, and he's won his last three tolerably well. He's had a prep in Dubai, which is more than I can say for most of the outsiders taking a chance here.

Asiatic Boy is a quality horse, but he's never run 10 furlongs before. I need something to whittle down this high class field, and that's enough. Plus I did say I'm backing only one South American this weekend.

Lucky Find gave me a pause. He has the classic look to me of a horse that tried too hard last out, and could easily come back well today. Then I realized that I was coming to the outside posts in my list. Hmmm...nope.

Seriously, how many horses are in this race?

Gloria de Campeao also will not be able to overcome the outside post. Not with so many other good horses who could do it better than him in the race.

Curlin, of course, is next. He requires no analysis.

A.P. Arrow rounds out the field. He's also a pretty boy. I saw a photo of him this week and assumed it was Curlin, then I realized the face markings were totally wrong. Love the pedigree. Not so hot on the second place to Spring at Last in the less than breathtaking Donn Handicap.

1. Curlin
2. Sway Yed
3. Jalil

And because I'm treating this race analysis as if Curlin weren't even there:

4. Premium Tap

And if that's not enough to get you excited, we also have the:

Florida Derby

This one starts off as a pretty easy pick because two of my RttR stable horses are in the race, and I wouldn't have picked them if I didn't think they were among the top 3-year olds in the country. My only concern in this race was who to put on top; the hard knocking Elysium Fields (El Prado-Dreams, by Silver Hawk) or the impressive three for three Fierce Wind (Dixie Union-Post Parade, by A.P. Indy). I was leaning towards Fierce Wind because Big Truck (fast closing second to Fierce Wind in the Sam F. Davis Stakes) just flattered Fierce Wind with his Tampa Bay Derby win. Then the colt drove all questions from my mind by putting in a 46.80 four furlong workout. There you go, exacta determined.

The question remains, which of the numerous fine animals making an appearance in this race can I use to fill out my trifecta?

A lot of attention recently has been paid to allowance company superstars Big Brown (Boundary-Mien, by Nureyev) and Hey Burn (Put it Back-Restaining Order, by Skip Trial). The former is unbeaten in his 2 lifetime starts, with a combined total win margin of 24 lengths. This will be his first shot at stakes company, and his first time on normal dirt. Meanwhile, Hey Burn has won his last two by a combined margin of 20.5 lengths. He's been in stakes company previously, but could only manage a place and 4th. Both of these colts are obviously far above and beyond the quality of the allowance competition they've been facing. Both look likely to have a breakout performance in this race. Both have sires who's classic producing potential is iffy. In essence, I see nothing to separate the two. They are complete equals in my mind, and I can't back either of them. I dunno, I just get the feeling that they cosmically cancel each other out or something. Also, I think it's late in the year to be meeting your first real stakes competition, and given the depth of quality in the Florida Derby field, I think they're going to be outclassed.

Also making a well deserved jump up from allowance company are: Nistle's Crunch, who was 3rd in a turf stakes previously and won a 1 and 1/8 mile allowance race his last out, B B Frank, who came in second to Nistle's Crunch in his recent allowance win, Cool Gator, who scored the show in the same race, and Face the Cat (still a Helen Pitts trainee!), who last out won a 1 mile allowance race in January over the likes of...wait for it...Nistle's Crunch. And if you can unweave that tangle of horses, more power to you. Just keep repeating to yourself, "There is no transitive property of handicapping".

Smooth Air has some real stakes experience, he finished 3rd behind Fierce Wind and Big Truck in the 1 mile 1/8 Sam F. Davis Stakes. He was also first in the 7f Hutchenson. That would generally be enough to put him at the top of my list, but after seeing his races, I honestly think he's more of a 7-8f horse in general. Majestic Warrior has also seen stakes competition, but has failed to live up to pretty much anyone's expectations of him this year.

And then there's Tomcito (Street Cry-Inside Or Outside, by Eastern Echo). What do we know about this Peruvian invader? Bred in Kentucky, from an Irish stallion whose progeny took the roses last year. We don't know who he's faced or the depth of their quality. What we do know is that he's raced 5 times in his life and finished first four times (he has a single place finish). That he's raced and won at everything from 5.5 furlongs to a mile and a half. That his 4 wins give him a combined total margin of 39 1/4 lengths (that's an average of 9 and 3/4 lengths between him and the place horse). That he's faced older competition (because of South American standards), and stakes competition at that. And that his connections thought enough of him to risk shipping him all this way for a chance at America's classic race. Oh, did I mention he worked a bullet 5 furlongs last week?

Give me a button that says "I Like the Mystery Horse."

1. Fierce Wind
2. Elysium Fields
3. Tomcito

Shirley Jones Stakes

I know, why am I not profiling the Palm Beach Stakes? It's got 3-year old colts? Because I don't believe any of the contestants have a chance at the Derby. Plus, this race just looks more interesting. I'm not going to say much (I'm tired of typing as it is) except to say that I always back a Malibu Moon colt or filly when I can. Seeing as how she hasn't appeared since winning the Maryland Million Oaks last October, Moon Catcher is bound to be a hefty price, and she's got my vote. I'm also a fan of Shaggy Mane, who I think likes the track. Sugar Swirl is clearly the horse to beat, let's see if any of these girls can top her.

1. Moon Catcher
2. Sugar Swirl
3. Shaggy Mane