Big Weekend for Races, No Points for Me

Well, there is a lot going on in the racing world this weekend, too bad absolutely none of my RttR horses are in anything. Ah well, could be worse.

Sham Stakes

This classic g.III rated west coast tune up for the Santa Anita Derby goes off this Saturday on Santa Anita's still somewhat suspect synthetic track. Not suspect anymore because of its complete inability to drain (a problem which looks to have been mostly cleared up), but because you really can't compare horses running on polytrack with those running on more traditional dirt surfaces. Although everyone's a little confused about what synthetics are actually like for the horses (good/bad, more turf like/dirt like, speed favoring/closer favoring), everyone seems to be in agreement that running on real dirt is somehow significantly different. So, even if some horse makes a name for himself this spring in California, even if some colt, like Sham himself, proves themselves the master of their western domain, that winner will come into Louisville with a huge question mark hovering over his head.

El Gato Malo (El Corredor-One Bad Cat, by Mountain Cat) tore up the track in the one mile San Rafael (g.III) last month, winning with a 6 1/4 length margin in a time of 1:33 and 1/5. His three victories thus far give him a combined winning margin of 16 lengths. Not up to Fierce Wind's antics, but still impressive. He shows no sign of slowing down for the addition of an extra 1/8th of a mile in this contest.

Colonel John (Tiznow) is hot property in Derby picks right now after his second place finish to Into Mischief in the Cash Call Futurity in late December. I believe I've already expressed my views on the Cash Call and its field, so I'll let you draw your conclusions from that. Reflect Times, a Japanese bred colt by French Deputy (out of Franca, by Seeking the Gold), was third in the Robert B. Lewis, and I liked Crown of Thorn's performace as the winner in that race enough to give this guy a second look. I also have an inkling his pedigree might do well on the synthetic track. Victory Pete (Five Star Day) was third last in the California Derby, losing by only a length to the undefeated Yankee Bravo (who I happen to think is a pretty good horse).

My two would be favorites for this race, Crown of Thorns and Coast Guard, were both scratched.

1. El Gato Malo

2. Victory Pete


3. Reflect Times

John Battaglia Memorial Stakes

Also runnning on synthetic surface, though curiously not in California, is this as yet ungraded 1 1/16 mile prep for the Lane's End Shakes (g.II). Not only do I not stable any of the runners, I haven't even heard of any of them before in my life (which just goes to show how green I really am). It seems a lot of them might be Turfway Park specialists, as 4 of them raced previously in the WEBN Stakes earlier this month. That race was won by Big Glen (Cactus Ridge) who is the presumptive favorite here. However, one should not overlook the second placed horse in that race, Your Round (Distorted Humor), who could only manage 8th in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf, but has done much better after a switch to dirt. Synthetics should do just fine for him. Also, I like his pedigree and his recent close losses have all come at the expense of wide trips. Third in the WEBN was Mr. Harry (Flatter), who looks to be snuck up on as a front runner on polytrack. Sixth was Dixie Decision...who doesn't seem to bear much mention here.

Briarwood Circle (Smart Strike-Fleet Road, by Magisterial) is something more of an unknown. He also started on turf, and in Canada. He was a close second in his last start, the Display Stakes last November, and will be making his three year old debut here. Why include him? Well, his pedigree mostly. What can I say, Smart Strike has made an impression on me. And just to throw a wrench into everything, there's a filly in the field. God, I love a filly who races the boys. Absolutely Cindy (Arch) was 6th last in the Silverbulletday Stakes (g.III), won by Indian Blessing, but is otherwise fairly consistent, with a record of 9-2-2-3.

1. Your Round


2. Briarwood Circle


3. Big Glen



Santa Anita Handicap

Now, the Big Cap is this week's big deal. With a 14 horse field full of class, the possibilities for bettors are nigh endless. I could write a whole post about this one race, but I won't....cause I'm lazy.

Awesome Gem (Awesome Again), the presumptive favorite, was third behind Curlin and Hard Spun in the Breeder's Cup Classic (g.I), was third in the San Antonio Hanicap (g.II) in early February, and recently posted a bullet work at Hollywood Park. Strong stuff, but I wonder at a horse who was third last out over the same track being a presumptive favorite. Awesome Gem's trainer, Craig Dollase, also has the presumptive 2nd choice in the race, Monterey Jazz (Thunderello). Monterey Jazz lead wire-to-wire in the 1 1/8 mile Strub Stakes (g.II) earlier this February, which is a somewhat strange tactic for a horse that's now 3 for 3 over two turns. Will the additional distance hamper him this time around? Maybe not, but the stampede of classy closers behind him sure might!

Finishing ahead of Awesome Gem in the San Antonio, and as a close closing second to Well Armed after having a somewhat troubled trip, was Heatseeker (Giant's Causeway). Prior to that, he won the Native Diver Handicap (g.III) at Hollywood Park. He recently breezed a mile in an easy 1:00. Do I need to tell you more?

Student Council (Kingmambo-Class Kris, by Kris S., and do I even need to point out the lovely grass pedigree? Gosh, why am I such a breeding snob?) also beat Awesome Gem, but that was waaaay last year in the Pacific Classic. Coming off a disappointing 8th in the Japan Dirt Cup, Student Council (who I was something of a fan of last year) was only able to get a 5th in the San Antonio, behind Awesome Gem, Heatseeker and Big Booster (another horse in the Big Cap, who I'm dismissing out of hand...sorry).

Go Between (Point Given), was a recent impressive Winner of the Sunshine Millions Classic over the same distance, and would be an excellent choice. But this confirmed late closer, though he's shown excellent ability to go wide on the turns and still finish strong, will likely have 13 horses ahead of him to contend with. That tends to make for a not insignificant wall. Meanwhile, Celtic Dreamin (Game Plan), who was outrun by Go Between in the stretch of the Sunshine Millions has hooked up again with his replacement rider from that day, Alex Solis. This horse is 5-4-0 in 9 lifetime starts. Have you heard me mention before how much a love a consistent horse? It bears repeating; and at 20-1 this boy would round out anyone's trifecta perfectly.

Tiago (Pleasant Tap) has never been one of my heroes (though my co-worker liked him a lot last year when he was big). He was third in the San Fernando Stakes (g.II) and second in the Strub Stakes (g.II) over the same track already this year. Certainly not inconsistent, and any other day I'd use him to pad my trifecta, but not with this field.

Champs Elysees (Danehill-Hasili) is a horse I've always liked. He's got a killer female family with grass written all over it and he just came off a win in the San Marcos Stakes (g.IIT). One might wonder why he's being tried on dirt. Oh sure, polytrack is supposed to be very "turf-like", but I question why they don't keep him where they know he can perform. Trainer Bobby Frankel's flippant answer leaves something to be desired. Also coming off the turf is Medici Code, who was third last in the San Gabriel Handicap (g. IIT) in December. He's won before on synthetics in England and has trained well here, but I think he just has too many hurdles to get over in this one.

Great Hunter, though one of my Derby favorites last year, has failed to do anything impressive since. Seminole Native was third in the Sunshine Millions (behind Go Between and Celtic Dreamin...there is such a tangle of horses in the west coast older male division it's crazy), but tiring after that mile and an eighth distance doesn't bode well for this weekend's mile and a quarter.

I could go on....

1. Heatseeker

2. Celtic Dreamin

3. Monterey Jazz

And furthermore...

I'm not going to spend the time or energy profiling the other races of this week, but let's just say I like Bsharpsonata in the Davona Dale (g.II). Though I think War Monger is the best choice in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap (g.IT), I'd put money on Out of Control (who looks to pay significantly better). And for yet more older horses on the dirt, I like Sir Whimsey in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (g.II).

In other news...

- Curlin surprised pretty much no one when he cruised to an easy 2 1/4 legnth finish under the lights of Nad al Sheba in the Jaguar Cup. A little rank early in the race (hey, wouldn't you be after nearly a 4 month layoff), jockey Robby Albarado settled him just behind the front runner Familiar Territory, and left enough run in the colt to draw away from the crowd (with loose reins) in the stretch. Not quite as yawn-worthy as War Pass' recent paid workout (did I mention Curlin carried 132 pounds and spotted the next horse 15?), but still an easy win. And the racing world marks March 29th on its calendars as the date for Curlin's next expected win.

- Scratched from the Sham Stakes was Coast Guard (Stormy Atlantic), who previously finished 2nd behind Crown of Thorns in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (g.II) at the beginning of February. The colt apparently had some heat in his ankle after a workout and his connections decided to hold off until next week's El Camino Real Derby (g.III). Why is this news? Because the number 1 and 2 horse of the Robert B. Lewis have now been sidetracked because of injuries. This race was run just before the improvements to fix up Santa Anita's track were implemented. I'm sorry, it's just suspicious. So synthetic tracks are supposed to be better for the horses, right?

- Everybody seems to have an opinion about the recent decision to move all the filly and mare races on the Breeder's Cup program to the Friday card, and to refer to the Breeder's Cup Distaff the "Ladies Classic". First allow me to say I am totally against moving all the girl's races to Friday, only because I was totally against putting any of the Breeder's Cup races on a Friday in the first place. Hello, some of us work. In fact, I'd be willing to bet that most of us work. And Friday is a work day. You want to add races and put them on Sunday, making a weekend of the Breeder's Cup? More power to you. I'd love a whole weekend's worth of camping out on the couch with muchies while the world's greatest thoroughbreds trot past on my flat screen tv. But as it is I have to rely on TiVo for the Friday races, and I was only comforted last year by the fact that the Friday races were, in general, the "lesser" contests. Now, you're going to put the Distaff, there? One of the most important races in this country? And how, pray tell, other than abstaining completely from internet news the entire day am I to remain unspoiled as to the outcome until I can make it home and watch the replays? I'm still pissed about finding out about Roses in May winning the Dubai World Cup from a CNN ticker before the race could even be shown on US tv (seriously, who would have thought CNN would care about this sort of thing?).

That being said, I don't find anything particularly insulting about changing the name (although I think the "Filly and Mare Classic" would be a better name). I don't personally consider "Ladies" to be an offensive term. And though I suppose I could understand how others might have a problem with it, I question whether they know the true meaning of the word "distaff". I happen to know it's not just a funny name for a mare's race only because I'm something of a history buff and, personally, I do think it's an offensive term:

Distaff –noun


1. a staff with a cleft end for holding wool, flax, etc., from which the thread is drawn in spinning by hand.


2. a similar attachment on a spinning wheel.

3. Archaic.
a. a woman or women collectively.
b.woman's work.

–adjective

4. Sometimes Offensive. noting, pertaining to, characteristic of, or suitable for a woman; female.

So really, I'm not too bothered by the name change.

They race on Thursday?

Not that we don't race on Thursday's in America, and likely even hold stakes races on that day of the week, but my apparently ethno-centric view of sports has resulted in shock that Curlin (Smart Strike- Sheriff's Deputy, by Deputy Minister) will be making his 4-year old and Dubai track debut tomorrow in the Jaguar Trophy, and not on a weekend when sports events are sensibly supposed to be held. The race will be 1 1/4 miles on the dirt, a distance we know Curlin knows and likes, with a purse of $175,000. His four opponents for the race are Familiar Territory and Imperialista, both trained by Saeed bin Suroor (a five time winner of the World Cup...which is a more impressive factor when one considers it has only ever been run 12 times before), Arqaam, Engrupido, and Jet Express. I know absolutely nothing about these horses...except that they will pretty much have to bank on Curlin not having taken the trip overseas well in order to bring home the bacon. Unfortunately for them, Curlin seems to have settled in well, was not fazed by the long plane ride, and worked easily in the unfamiliar Dubai starting gates (thank you over-coverage of the horse racing media for making sure I am aware of Curlin's every move).

This race is, of course, intended to be a prep for the March 29th, $6 million dollar Dubai World Cup. That race, which is also run at a mile and a quarter, was won last year by Invasor (Candy Stripes-Quendom, by Interprete), champion in two countries. Finishing second in that race (and unfortunately pretty much forgotten) was Premium Tap (Pleasant Tap-Premium Road, by Thirty Six Red), who I personally have a very great liking for. It will be interesting to see what the end of March brings for Curlin. As for tomorrow, well, I certainly wouldn't call the Jaguar Trophy a 'soft touch' for him, but I don't expect his competition to give him too much trouble.

In other news

Someone in Texas found a good home for his no longer race ready Mailman Express, when he gave the horse to a waitress as a tip. A winner of $15,000 at the track, the 5-year old gelding will now live a life of comparative ease as a pleasure horse for his new owner. Let's hear it for another racing veteran avoiding the slaughterhouse.

Weekend in Review

I would have been happy with my two RttR horses finishing anywhere in the money in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (g.II). And they did. So it's not really for me to complain that they didn't finish exactly as I expected them to and that they got beat by a horse I certainly didn't think would come back from a 7th place in his previous stakes performance. But let's save the analysis for its proper place.

Fountain of Youth

Cool Coal Man (Mineshaft-Coral Sea, by Rubiano), a Nick Zito sleeper, followed up his recent allowance victory with his first stakes win. I must admit, I had this horse pretty much nowhere on my radar, and though I can't argue with plain facts (he won the race, I saw the replays) I'm still not convinced of his ultimate superiority. The pace for this race was essentially non-existant, making it hard for any closers to shine, and Cool Coal Man, breaking from the one spot, received a perfect trip under Kent Desormeaux. Even still, the colt was only just able to hold off a late charge by none other than...

Elysium Fields (El Prado- Dreams, by Silver Hawk)! Yes, my shot in the dark pick proved he's got some talent, stalking the pace, making his move early on the turn (possibly a little too early) and then almost coming back to catch the winner after switching from an inside track to the outside halfway through the stretch. Cool Coal Man went from leading by 2.5 lenghts in mid-stretch to besting him by only half a length, which makes one wonder what would have happened with an extra 1/16 of a mile to run? Or farther? Oh yes, Elysium Fields is firmly ensconced in my stable now.

Good boy!

And who was that limping along in third place 5 and 3/4 lengths behind the number two horse? Why Court Vision, putting in a less than stellar performance. In his defense he came on in a rush from last place to get where he ended up and with the pace being sloooooowww he didn't have much of a chance to catch the leaders. Sure, he should have made his move sooner, but I think we can chalk that mistake up to inexperience (it was his first 3-year old start). I'd like to see him try this distance again, or even a little farther. I'm not giving up on him yet.

And from the annals of horses one should give up on? Z Humor. Yep, no big surprise that he couldn't recover in 8 days to come back with a stakes win. In fact, the big surprise was that he finished in the money at all, coming in fourth behind Court Vision. I was actually rather impressed by his finish (given my total lack of confidence in him otherwise). Unfortunately, I think he's just too green still to be on the Derby trail, but he's got the makings of a good racehorse to come. Similarly, Halo Najib failed to turn things around after his 13 day layoff, and now looks to be a Derby prep footnote.

Anak Nakal was a pretty big disappointment, but it means I made the right choice for my RttR stable. Strangely, Anak Nakal killed Cool Coal Man last year in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (g.II). But here he could only manage 8th...never firing. Seriously, does Nick Zito even know which of his multitude of talented colts is the best?

We apparently can't say anything one way or the other about Monba, who was bumped and faded to last. His connections are likely to blame the interference on his poor performance. I'll reiterate that I think he should be sent to the turf.

Regardless, good race. Good horses. I'm happy to add 16 more points to my stable (overall ranking- tied with lots for 1621st place). I like that my horse (Elysium Fields) came out of the race looking like a better prospect than the eventual winner. I am, in general, pleased with the outcome. Not so much my attempt at calling the turf races.

Photo: Coglianese Photos

Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes

Einstein (Spend A Buck- Gay Charm, by Ghadeer) showed that my complete lack of faith in him was misguided, becoming the first horse to ever win the grade I turf race for the second time. Sure, he looked like the class going into the race, but every once and a while I go out of my way to convince myself that the favorite is not actually the best horse. It's something of a prejudice I have, not wanting to believe in favorites. Anyways, that appears to be what happened here. I dismissed absolutely everything in Einstein's favor and went with (what appeared to be ) a promising colt (Shamdinan) who finished...what...ninth?!? Out of 10?!? What the heck!! My other picks, Cougar Bay, Dave and Zann, couldn't manage better than 5th, 6th, and 7th.

So....ummmm...right, no more turf races for me.

Meanwhile, let's all give a shout out for Helen Pitts for winning it with the game old veteran. Get a clue folks, this woman trains stakes winners. Maybe if you could get your noses out of your good-ol-boy playbooks you'd see that. Heaven forbid that a woman be allowed to train a Derby hopeful through his spring preps. Sigh.

In other news . . .

In the least surprising performance this entire weekend, War Pass (Cherokee Run- Vue by Mr. Prospector) wired the field in the one mile allowance race that followed the Fountain of Youth. He won by 7 1/2 lengths going away to remain undefeated in 5 lifetime starts (including last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile, g.I). Never challenged by his 4 rivals, who have been generously described as 'overmatched', he ran his race is a fairly liesurely 1:36.38. One wonders if he broke a sweat. That being said, I don't genrally look to front runners to win the Derby (though it happens) and I don't normally look to horses that open their 3-year old season in late February with an allowance race against meagre competition period. Sure he's in my stable, he's in just about everyone's stable, but he sure isn't doing us any good there staying out of stakes company. Can he prove another Street Sense and capture both the juvenile championship and the roses? Who knows at this point. His true ability remains to be seen, and I'll withold comment until I actually see him fight for a win.

In completely unrelated news, I just realized I have commentors! Awesome. Thanks for actually looking at my stuff.

We now return to our regularly scheduled program

So, back to three-year olds on dirt. There's only one prep race this weekend, but it's a biggie with a field of 12 Derby hopefuls trying to keep themselves on the path to glory.

The Fountain of Youth

My picks this week are made somewhat easier by the fact that two of the entrants are in my RttR stable. Court Vision (Gulch-Weekend Storm by Storm Bird, and can I just say I love this breeding for a classic distance horse?) is 4-3-1-0, because he wisely skipped out on the Breeder's Cup Juvenile where every other quality juvenile was left churning in War Pass' muddy wake. His last race was a win in th 1 1/8 Remsen Stakes (g.II) back in November, so he'll be putting in his first 3-year old performance today. However, he's talented and beautifully bred, and if he doesn't trip over himself he'll do well.

My other horse, Elysium Fields, is something of a shot in the dark. Today will mark his first attempt at stakes company. He placed in all his starts last year, and finally broke his maiden this year in a 1 1/8 mile allowance race over the Gulfstream track. He likes the track, he goes the distance, and he's by El Prado so he's bred to go farther. Sooooo, he'll either prove himself today, or I'll probably have to make myself a new RttR stable (I can't afford one injury and one non-performer...plus I've got Giant Moon sitting there on his haunches doing nothing as it is). Oh well, best of luck my friend.

Also entered are Monba (Maria's Mon- Hamba, by Easy Goer), who was last 4th behind Into Mischief in the 1 1/16 mile Cash Call Futurity (g.I) in December. Now, I refused to put Into Mischief into my stable because I thought he looked too much like a sprinter who got lucky over a mile. I don't know what I think about anyone who finished behind him, except that they got outrun. Monba just looks to me like a horse bred to go green (read: run on grass) and I can't support his Derby bid.

Anak Nakal will also be making his 2008 debut and is most people's first or second choice. He's 3-2-1-0, but just about all the quality juveniles coming back for their first 3-year old start will look that good on paper (especially if they passed on the Breeder's Cup). He's by Victory Gallop (who was second, second and first in his own Triple Crown attempt) out of Misk by Quiet American (curiously, the sire of Real Quiet, who was first, first and second in Victory Gallop's Triple Crown attempt). In other words, this guy has Derby written all over his pedigree, and in any other year he'd be on my list. There just wasn't room. Trust me, he's number 11. Well, actually, I guess he's #10 (damn you Crown of Thorns!!!). I really can't say anything bad about him, except that his last win (the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, g.II) was 1 mile and 1/16 while Court Vision's was the longer 1 1/8 mile distance, so Court Vision gets the nod.

Halo Najib (Halo's Image) was a recent stakes winner at a mile and a sixteenth...very recent. He raced 13 days ago in the Darley OBS Championship stakes. I salute his connections for going back to the old iron horse tradition, where Whirlaway was given an allowance race in between his Preakness and Belmont wins. However, I do question their motives as it appears he's only in this race for the money (well, for the graded earnings he needs to get into the Derby). I've got Derby mania myself, but I wouldn't kill a good quality horse for it.

Z Humour is the surprise entry here. Hey, didn't I already talk about this guy recently? Yep, his connections have put him back in a race just 8 days after his disappointing 5th place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Perhaps the horse needed that race as a tune up. Perhaps Bill Mott has seen some marked improvement in the colt that makes him think it's worth giving him another chance. Heck, perhaps Z Humour had a mouth abscess that wasn't discovered until after the Sam F. Davis which was the sole cause of him backing off the bit (nod your head if you recognize that bit of horse racing trivia). But sorry, this just looks like desperation to me. It's entirely possible that Z Humor will win by ten lengths going away today (hey, anything's possible). Either that or he's finished.

I've heard there are other horses in this race, but in all reality I don't expect much from them (of course, having now said that, just watch the Trifecta fill with names unmentioned herein).

1. Court Vision
2. Anak Nakal
3. Elysium Fields

Now there's a playing favorites pick if I ever saw one. Ah well, sometimes it just turns out that everyone agrees with you regarding the horses you think are the best.

In other news

War Pass (Cherokee Run- Vue by Mr. Prospector) will be making his 3-year old debut this week, but not in the Fountain of Youth, or any stakes level race for that matter. He's been entered in a one mile allowance race on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth. The champion two-year old male and Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner is undefeated in 4 starts and looks to decimate his company. Clearly his trainer wants to take it easy with his prize horseflesh and give him a slow tune-up for his likely Tampa Bay Derby entrance in March. He doesn't need the graded earnings that most of the other horses on the trail need to make up, so why push him?

Because he's a race horse. A stakes race horse. And I question the motives of any trainer who holds his alleged best three-year old back in allowance company. Well see in March what War Pass has in store for us, but until then...well...I have to say, I'm in doubt of his fitness.

It's not all 3-year old's

Though you might find this hard to believe in early spring in America. It's so easy to get focused on the Derby preps that you almost forget there are older horses running out there. In fact, about the only thing that can drag my eyes away from descriptions of how the current crop of 3-year olds is progressing are pictures of the adorable foals that are dropping to the ground in droves this time of year. Yesterday, I actually squealed at a photo in The Blood Horse. "Oooohhh, look" I said to my very patient husband, turning the magazine around for him to see, "Baby Curlin." Actually, although the picture of the champion was undeniably cute, a second look had me blinking at his hind legs and wondering if he was just standing weird. Or maybe his conformation leaves something to be desired. I've never heard anyone disparage his form, and it's rather hard to tell from the brief glimpses one gets on TV, or from pictures of him frozen in full gallop at the wire. Lovely shoulders...but those hind legs...hmmmm. Regardless, although it helps, conformation in itself does not win races. Horses do. And although conformation may have much to do with how well a horse can keep himself together for a career beyond his three-year old season, it's not definitive. Which, of course, is why Curlin is now a 4-year old cantering through the deserts of Dubai and pointing towards the richest race in the world.

Which brings us back to our original point about there being more than just 3-year old Derby (and Oaks) preps in the spring. One of these is the Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes, which is being run this coming Saturday.

Now, I'm American, and that means that I know Jack about turf horses compared with the rest of the world, but I do try to pay attention. I do try to read the stakes records from other countries where just about everyone runs on grass (and in the wrong direction, and sometimes over hurdles), but in all truth, I'm a bit lost. So, it should be a good exercise for me to take a look at this race (knowing comparatively little about the contenders and nothing about the course) and attempting to pick a runner or two. So, I've decided to do a little profile on the race itself. Prepare to be educated:

The Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes is a grade I rated race for 4-year olds and up on the turf. It is a mile and 3/8 long (or 11 furlongs), which puts it smack dab in between the a mile and a quarter length of the Kentucky Derby and the mile and a half of the Belmont. It was previosuly run at the shorter distance of a mile and 1/16 (which is a much more common length for an American race), and in 2006 was run at a mile and 7/16....which is a sixteenth of a mile longer than it currently is. One assumes they cut the length down to its current size because 1 and 7/16 is just too cumbersome a description for turf writers. All runners carry 123 pounds.

The record time for the race of 2:10.73 was set by a horse named Yagli (whom I've never heard of, but that's not surprising) in 1999. Given that a horse running eleven furlongs at a twelve-clip (the timing of 12 seconds to the furlong which is usually considered to be a good basic pace for a stakes race) would finish the race in 2:12, Yagli has set a fairly high standard...especially when one considers that the pace of most turf races is generally slower than that of races run on dirt. Curiously, Gulfsteam Park lists its record time for 1 and 3/8 on the turf track as being set by another horse (Prince Arch) and being only 2:11.4....which is a tad confusing. Regardless, the race was won by Jambalaya (by Langfur) last year and by Einstein the year before that (note this for later on).

The horses contesting this year's $350,000 in prizes are:

1. Dave

This 7-year old New York bred gelding by End's Well is trained by Barclay Tagg (of Funny Cide fame). Dave, who suffers from an unbelievably boring name, had his last start in December in the 1 1/2 mile W. L. McKnight Handicap (gr. IIT) , where he finished fourth. Prior to that, he won the 1 3/8-mile Red Smith Handicap (gr. IIT) in November. He is 6-10-3 from 35 starts, which gives him a 17% win record, and puts him in the money a good 54% of the time.

2. Thorn Song

Thorn Song is a 5-year old by Unbridled’s Song out of Festal by Storm Bird. Thorn Song was 4th last in the 1 1/16 mile Canadian Turf Handicap (g.IIIT), leading most of the way and fading in the stretch. Prior to that he won the 1 1/8 mile River City Handicap (g.IIIT) in November. His record is 4-4-2, though I can't seem to find a total race record for him...and he really only seems to have come into his own at 4 (i.e. last year) anyways.

Photo: Churchill Downs/Reed Palmer

3. Zann (photo unavailable)

Zann (a 5-year old son of Dynaformer) was a hard closing second, losing in a photo finish in his last trip out in the 1 mile 1/16 Citation Handicap (g.IT), but that was way back in November. Zann was a hard closing second, losing in a photo finish in his last race previous to that, the Oak Tree Mile (g.IIT), but that was way back in October. Are we seeing a pattern here? He's got a new trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin and a new jockey, Elvis Trujillo, since then. He's been a victor in 3 of his 13 starts, giving him a 23% win rate, but his close closing seconds keep his connections placing him in progressively longer and longer races, hoping to wear down the front runners.

4. Einstein

See, I told you to take note earlier on. Yes, Einstein (Spend A Buck- Gay Charm by Ghadeer), a 6-year old gelding, won this race once before in 2006. However, that was the one year when it was run at a crazy 1 mile and 7/16. Last year, he finished 3rd. As such, we know he likes the track, and we know he can go the distance, but we don't know much more. No horse has ever repeated a win in the Gulfstream Park Turf. His last race was the Donn Handicap (g.I) on the dirt, in which he finished a tired 6th. Prior to that he went wire to wire in a 1 mile turf allowance race. Prior to that he was taking an 8 month sabbatical in a pasture. He's trained by Helen Pitts, who is currently the least lucky person in horse racing, having trained Curlin last year only to have him removed from her barn when he started to hit the big time, and who had the exact same thing happen this year with Derby hopeful Face the Cat (more on him tomorrow). Einsten is owned by Midnight Cry Stables, which is currently the least lucky stable in the world, seeing as how its owners screwed over a bunch of injured plaintiffs and are now embroiled in a huge lawsuit. Neither of these human issues have any effect on how he will run this weekend, but they certainly make the race more interesting.

Photo: Equi-Photo\Matt Dean

5. Dancing Forever (photo unavailable)

Dancing Forever (Keeper-Forever Dancing) is a stakes winner from New Zealand. You want more info? There's not much. He appears to be fresh off the boat from down under, but he ran there on December 31st and won the Southern Trust Handicap. I presume that the race was on turf, but at what distance, against what company, or anything else about this horse's past is just a big unknown.

6. Stream of Gold

This 7-year old gelding by Rainbow Quest was second in the W. L. McKnight won by Dave above, and runner-up to English Channel (2007 Champion Turf Male) in the 1 mile and 1/2 Turf Classic Invitational (gr. IT) before that. He's unraced in 2008.

Photo: Terrence Dulay




7. Shamdinan

Shamdinan (Dr. Fong-Shamdara by Dr Devious) shipped over from France last fall and promptly made an impression on American soil, winning the Secretariat Stakes (g.IT) in his graded stakes debut. He went on to finish second to English Channel in the 1.5 mile 2007 Breeder's Cup Turf (g.IT). He finished 7 lengths behind English Channel, but, as I'm sure I've mentioned previously, it's hard to take anything that happened in the Monmouth mud seriously. Shamdinan did hold off third placed Red Rocks, who was the defending Breeder's Cup Turf winner. This will be his first start as a 4-year old, though .

Photo: Four Footed Fotos

8. Palace Episode

Palace Episode, a 5-year old colt by Machiavellian out of Palace Weekend by Seattle Dancer has only one allowance victory from six starts in the US after shipping here last year. Previously a Group I winner in England (like a g.I here, but with an accent), he's been stakes placed in America, but was seventh as the favorite in what appears to have been his last time out (circa October). Most interesting tidbit is his broodmare sire Seattle Dancer, famous for being the highest priced yearling ever sold at auction ($13.1 million) who was a failure at the track and not much better in the breeding shed. He's the The Green Monkey of the 1980's.

9. Notable Guest


Notable Guest (Kingmambo-Yenda by Dancing Knave) is a 7-year oldwho has been stakes placed in 4 of his 5 finishes since coming to the US for the 2007 season. It's hard to find much info about the colt (who doesn't seem to have actually won any stakes races since he came to America)...or maybe I'm just getting tired over all the research for this extremely long blog piece. He certainly has the pedigree for grass racing. Apparently, he's been sold as a breeding prospect to investors in Brazil, so you better get a look at him now before he says "Adios!"


10. Cougar Bay (photo unavailable)

Rounding out the field is the 5-year old Daylami gelding, Cougar Bay. He's also trained by Barclay Tagg and he ran last in a one mile allowance race in mid January. Once again, he's a stakes competitor overseas (like most good grass horses), but it's hard to find any info on him that's recent. Man, I must be getting tired of writing.


On to the analysis!


Okay, Einstein likes the track and the distance, so he's clearly going to be in the mix, but I don't think you can just throw out his last race (the Donn) by saying he doesn't like the dirt. A lot of class horses don't like dirt and still can manage better than 6th place. His prep for that race was also nothing to shout about. Meanwhile, I thought English Channel's win in the Breeder's Cup turf was aided significantly by the soft ground and can be discounted, while my pick for that race (Red Rocks) got just edged out by Shamdinan. The only thing he's got going against him is this being his first 2008 start, and that's not a big minus to his credit. Meanwhile, Zann looks better and better the longer he runs. I don't know how he'll react to the change in rider and trainer, but in general horses seem to get better rather than worse once they show up in Kiaran's barn. However, his last two close finishes make me think that maybe he likes a little side by side running action more than he likes winning, so I'm not going to give him the win. Dave has been about as consistent as you can get, and I do love a consistent horse. He's also shown he can win over 1 3/8, which I like to see when I'm picking winners for a big route race. If I had to pick a 4th, I'd go with Cougar Bay. His record's not that impressive, but Barclay looks to have been pointing him to this spot specifically.


1. Shamdinan
2. Zann
3. Dave

Like Clockwork

And today, as has happened every year I've played the Road to the Roses game, I lost one of my fantasy stable picks to injury. Crown of Thorns (Repent-Crowning Touch by Thunder Gulch) has been sidelined because of a shin injury that will keep him completely out of the Triple Crown picture. Crown of Thorns had previously made a name for himself winning the g.II Robert B. Lewis Stakes in only his thrid race (and second win). Poor boy, we hardly knew you.

Other than this depressing snippet, the only news today seems to be the racing media's gushing over Curlin cantering (yes, cantering) over the Dubai track. Look, he's a good horse. I love him too, but I really don't need to know about every single step he takes in the desert. You can writte about him when he runs his next race or, seeing as that's likely to be against low level company, when he runs in the World Cup. Otherwise, we don't really need an update.

Eh, Not So Much

Well, I could have called that one better. Guess I used up all my racing luck on the weekend. Still it was an eventful Southwest Stakes!

Denis of Cork (Harlan's Holiday-Unbridled Girl by Unbridled) proved that he's not just a pretty face, winning in style in front of some classy contenders and remaining undefeated in 3 starts. His closing move, if not as earth shatteringly impressive as Pyro's last to first romp in the Risen Star, was considerably more professional in appearance. Between the two of them, we can hopefully look to have an exciting Derby finish. Liberty Bull, my pick for the win, finished third, and he had to share that too, dead heating with Sacred Journey. The latter, I have to admit, did better than I thought he would. He lead pretty much the whole way, with fractions of 22.7, 45.3 and 1:10.8 (that are nothing to sneeze at), and still held on to be in the money in his first time beyond 6 furlongs. He seemed bewildered by the distance in the replay and I think, next time out, he might put in a better performance. And my show pick, Isabull? Umm...yeah. Nowhere to be found. Oh well, could have been worse. I was totally right about Turf War, who didn't race anywhere near his Delta Jackpot form.

So what will happen in the future? Well, the Southwest is just the opening volley of the Oaklawn triple (followed by the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby), which may be lengthened to a four race Derby prep schedule if the Smarty Jones Stakes takes off. There's no good reason for most of these horses to leave (aside from not wanting to face one another again). Liberty Bull has already won once over the track and come close a second time. He's more than likely to stick around for the remaining races. If I were Sacred Journey's trainers I'd want to give the track another go. Will Denis of Cork stick around? Depends. He seemed a little slow in his closing drive, despite confidently overtaking the leaders, and his Beyer figures leave much to be desired. He might benefit from a move to a polytrack course like Keenland. We'll see come March 15th.

In other news...

The great racing filly Winning Colors (Caro-all Rainbows by Bold Hour) was humanely euthanized yesterday, after suffering complications from colic. Most famous for being only one of three fillies to ever win the Kentucky Derby, she also won the Santa Anita Derby and placed third in the Preakness (all, of course, against colts). She failed to come through in the 1988 Breeder's Cup Distaff against her own sex, losing out to her primary female rival, Personal Ensign. She never amounted to much as a 4-year old or as a broodmare, producing only one stakes winner in Japan.

I just finished reading Gold Rush: How Mr. Prospector Became Racing's Billion Dollar Sire (I'll review in a later post), and I find it topical, given that Winning Colors beat both Forty Niner and Seeking the Gold. Both Mr. Prospector sons were great racing colts (Forty Niner is in the above photo, shown losing the Kentucky Derby by a neck to Winning Colors) who ended up founding their own breeding dynasties. Tells you something about the filly's character and abilities.

Sadly, I never knew Winning Colors. I watched my first horse race in the summer on 1988, after the close of her Triple Crown bid, and I didn't see a race on TV until the following year's Belmont Stakes. By that time, Winning Colors was out of the picture. I can't help thinking how much, if I'd even known she existed, I would have loved this hardy, grey beauty who wasn't afraid to take on the boys.

Photo: CDI

Booyah!

So all did not go as my picks would have suggested, but that's to be expected. However, it's possible that things actually turned out for the better. Let's recap:

Sam F. Davis Stakes

For this race I predicted that the favorite, Z Humor, would not put in the performance everyone was expecting him to. And I was right, he came in a disappointing fifth. I also thought Smooth Air, most people's second choice, wouldn't take to the added distance, and I was...well...somewhat right. He came in third. Showed he could make the distance, though, and might be one to watch for possible improvement. My instincts about Honey Honey Honey were completely unfounded. Setting a fairly quick (though not blistering) pace early on, he faded to last after the second turn. Oh well.

But I was dead on with Fierce Wind.

The colt by Dixie Union out of the A. P. Indy mare Post Parade (curious how easy it is to find his dam info now that he's actually won a stakes race) stalked in 4th for most of the trip before taking the lead three wide on the far turn and holding off a late closing drive from relative unknown Big Truck. Remaining a perfect three-for three, Fierce Wind's 1/2 length lead over the second placed horse gives him combined winning margins of 15 and 3/4 lengths in his career, making for an average of slightly over 5 lengths. Not quite up to the numbers Curlin was posting this time last year, but darn close. This coming week, his name will be on everybody's lips. Yay me!

Photo: Tom Cooley

Halledale Beach

As I predicted, the outcome of this race was not all that surprising. The three top colts entered finished one-two-three. The only small surprise was that the order got a bit mixed up and Todd Pletcher won with the wrong horse. Cowboy Cal, who pretty much cemented the fact that he's not really a Derby quality horse, was completely outrun in the stretch by his stablemate Why Tonto. Cannonball weakened towards the end, but put in a good performance otherwise, finishing more than 4 lenghts in front of the 4th horse. The big story of the race? Indian Charlie, the sire of Why Tonto (out of the Northern Baby mare Why So Much).

Indian Charlie (In Excess- Soviet Sojourn by Leo Castelli) has just been having a breakout year at stud. His daughter Indian Blessing (out of Shameful by Flying Chevron) was just voted Juvenile Fillies champion of 2007 and is still unbeaten, having just won the Silverbulletday Stakes. Another daughter, Fleet Indian (out of Hustleeta by Alfleet), Champion Older Female of 2006 who suffered a career ending injury in the 2006 Breeder's Cup Distaff, just produced a Storm Cat colt. Indian Charlie also has 3 stakes placed runners so far this year, one of whom, Indian Sun, was second in the g. III San Rafael and (an admittedly dismal) 4th in the g.II Robert B. Lewis stakes; and, as such, is another valid Derby contender. Indian Charlie finished out 2007 as number 2 on the list of leading sires of 2-year olds and number 38 on the overall leading sires list. Not too shabby.

Endeavour Stakes

Turns out Dreaming of Anna didn't have any trouble coming off her layoff and, instead, managed to nose out Lear's Princess for the win. In my defense, it was a near thing. And who was in third? That's right, Meribel. That's gut handicapping for you. Mind you, Take the Ribbon looks to have been scratched, and her absence might have made things a tad easier for everyone else.

Regardless, that makes 4 stakes (if you count the Risen Star last weekend) and three trifecta calls for me. So do I deserve a blog of my very own? Who knows. I certainly don't feel as knowledgeable as all those folks whose blogs I check religiously, but I do feel more confident in myself after this weekend. Might as well keep going now.

In other news...

• Golden Dawn (Hennessy-Paved in Gold by Carson City) took the Barbara Fritchie handicap over defending winner Oprah Winney. Although I had always though the latter was little more than a clever name, I was sad to see her eased and walked off the track. Let's hope she recovers to amuse her namesake again.
• Surf Cat surprised the heck out of me, having not won a thing since May of 2006, by winning the San Carlos Handicap (g.II). By Sir Cat out of the Centrust mare, Trust Greta, he's anything but royally bred. However, he's apparently very consistent, holding a record of 8-5-1 in 16 starts.

Looking Forward....

Tomorrow marks the running of the Southwest Stakes (now with g.III!), which in recent years has proven to be a quality prep race for Derby starters (2007-Teuflesberg, 2006-Lawyer Ron, 2004-Smarty Jones) . However, I have absolutely none of the entrants in my fantasy stable. As such, I'm as impotent as...say... War Emblem. However, that doesn't mean I can't make some predictions. Turf War's (Dixie Union-Grass Skirt by Mr. Prospector) claim to fame is his dead heat against Z Humor in the recent Delta Jackpot. However, as we just saw above, Z Humor may not be "all that", and a dead heat win in Louisiana is really nothing to shout about. Denis of Cork is everybody's (well, except me) dark horse for the Derby. The undefeated Harlan's Holiday colt has proven himself at 2 turns and in the slop during a recent allowance race. There's still a question of whether he'll perform as well in stakes company. My instinct? He's too pretty to be good. Sacred Journey is also undefeated in allowance company...but at 6 furlongs. So let me get this straight...they're trying him for the first time at two turns...at stakes company...and giving him a completely new jockey for this test. Ummm...no. Silver Edition was less than impressive during his 4th place in the Swale Stakes, and did nothing to suggest he'd improve with added distance. Meanwhile, we've got both Liberty Bull and Isabull, who I think I'm going to start referring to as the Holy Bull Twins (like the Wonder Twins, but cooler), who finished first and second in the inaugural Smarty Jones Stakes. Yeah, I think I know who I'm pulling for:

1. Liberty Bull
2. Isabull
3. Denis of Cork

Okay, here's something amusing that I found while looking for a non-password protected website to link to detailing War Emblem's failed career at stud.

Weekend Preview

Well, there's only one major prep race this weekend, and I've only got one horse in it. Still, it gives me something to talk about

Sam F. Davis Stakes

Everybody seems to like Z Humor (Distorted Humor-Offtheoldblock by A.P. Indy) in this one, and I do have to say he looks good. He certainly has the pedigree to stretch out, and he's been fairly consistent in his previous races (though notably not as consistent as War Pass and Pyro); but what can I say, I chose his stablemate (the other 'Z' horse) for my fantasy stable, and there's pretty much no going back now. Meanwhile, I took a chance on the Nick Zito trained Fierce Wind (Dixie Union, you'd be surprised how hard it is to find pedigree info on non-stakes horses), making his first start in stakes company today, because who doesn't love a spring three year old who wins a mile and an eighth allowance test going away. Mind you, after today, he very well may make a great allowance horse (which isn't saying much). But, you gotta have some untested runners in your stable because someone always comes out of nowhere to be a contender. Remember Curlin this time last year? No not really, he'd just made his first (albeit impressive) start. Everyone's holding their breath to see if Smooth Air can stretch out to two turns. My initial guess? No. Honey Honey Honey (Awesome of Course-EJ's Honey by Honey Jay) knows the track, likes it, and has proved himself nearby in a 7f stakes. Other than the ignoble pedigree, what's not to like?

1. Honey Honey Honey
2. Z Humor
3. Fierce Wind (just cause he's in my stable doesn't mean I think he'll win)

Hallendale Beach

Okay, this is a turf race, and although I usually pay about as much attention to turf races before the Derby as I do to steeplechasing, Babaro unfortunately proved that you can't count the grass runners out of the Triple Crown. Heading up this one is Cowboy Cal (Giants Causeway-Texas Tammy by Seeking the Gold), who some are surprised is being kept in grass company, given that Todd Pletcher seems to be pointing him at the Derby. I don't call that surprising, I call that not actually pointing the horse for the Derby. But, whatever. The horse certainly has the pedigree and the background to win this race, so he's pretty hard to ignore. Plus, I'm not suspecting any surprises. Meanwhile, Why Tonto is worth a look, if only because his sire (Indian Charlie) has just been having a banner year so far. Cannonball hasn't been out of the money since they put him on turf and, though I hate to back a gelding pre-Derby, he's looked good in New York. In all honesty, I know next to nothing about the rest of the field, so here's the picks:

1. Cowboy Cal
2. Why Tonto
3. Cannonball

Endeavor Stakes- notably, not a Derby prep

As much as I like Dreaming of Anna (Rahy-Justenuffheart by Broad Brush), she never seems to do all that well after a layoff. I won't count her out, I just won't put her at number one. Lear's Princess (Lear Fan-Pretty City by Carson City) is coming off a disastrous Breeder's Cup Distaff finish (10th), but really, can we count anybody's performance over that slop? Before that she was 2-2-0 in stakes company and had just beat champion Rags to Riches (possibly injured) in the Gazelle. Take the Ribbon will likely be up there, but I like Meribel. Why? Well, sometimes I just don't have a good reason.

1. Lear's Princess
2. Meribel
3. Dreamining of Anna

In other news, J Be K (Silver Deputy- Major Wager by Valid Wager) was a rousing winner in just his second start, going 6f in 1:10. Pressed early by Escrow for a half mile in a sharp 45:03, he pulled away from the other contenders easily and won by 7 and a half going away to remain a perfect two for two. And it wasn't even a synthetic racetrack (point of fact, he was one of the horses recently ripped from Baffert's stable by his owner to escape the southern California debacle). It's hard at this time of the year when everybody's thinking "Derby, derby, derby" to get hot on a sprinter, and really, that's all this horse ever looks to be. But there is one connection: he was ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan, one of my Road to the Roses jocks, and the pilot of Pyro in last week's Risen Star. I've never cared for jockeys much, but I could grow to like this guy.

Premium Tap (Pleasant Tap-Premium Red by Thirty Six Red) , another consistent horse whose career I followed closely, could only manage a 4th yesterday in the G1-KSA Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup (note: still in the money, I do love this horse). However, what's this all about?

"Premium Tap, now named Allam, was defeated by just over three lengths."

They changed his name? How did I miss this nugget previously? Don't they know you don't change a horse's name midstream? I mean, isn't there a superstition against that sort of thing like there is for ships?

Settling into the "not surprising" category, Etched (Forestry-Unbridled Elain by Unbridleds Song), an impressive two-year old in the states last year, was fourth in Thursday's G3 UAE Guineas S. in Dubai. Previously undefeated, Etched lost to the (get this) 4-year old Honour Devil. Okay, I know I'm not the only one who thinks shipping a 3-year old to Dubai is not a good way to train him for a classic Triple Crown run in the states. But seriously, who runs a baby in his first start as a three year old against older horses? Mind you, Honour Devil does appear to have been bred in the southern hemisphere, so we may have a timing issue going on here, but still...

Maybe I do know what I'm talking about...

Last year before the Breeders Cup, I found myself in the always tricky position of having to choose a winner for the upcoming Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Sure, the Classic horses you know, and the Distaffers. Even the Turf horses and Sprinters are likely to be well known and well loved heroes by the time November rolls around. You've been following their careers all year, and you've got a pretty good idea of whom you like.

Not so juveniles.

At most, they have a handful of races under their belt and none have yet to truly find their niche in the racing world. And so, keeping all this in mind, I perused the past performance charts and threw a dart. Well, not exactly. I chose Pyro (Pulpit-Wild Vision by Wild Again) becase he was consistent, and I love a consistent hore. And by that I mean, I love a horse that maybe doesn't win every time out, but he's always in the money. Sure he lost the last time out (the Champagne), but he was a fast closing second. And he had the look of a horse that could strech out to distance races. War Pass (Cherokee Run-Vue by Mr. Prospector), who won the Champage, was probably the class of the field, but I just can't pick a favorite...there's no art in it. So, Pyro was my Juvenile pick.

He came in second. To War Pass.

But again, it was a fast closing second, and a move that looked to only get better with increased distance. I still liked him. I put him in my Road to the Roses stable, and sat back to see what would happen in the Risen Star Stakes this past weekend.

Goodness, it's nice to be vindicated.

Did you catch that last quarter mile? Of course you did. Randy Moss clocked it as 22.3 seconds, which, for the uninitiated, is really darn fast. Especially for the end of a race. Especially for a horse who gets hand ridden to the finish. Especially for a horse that had to swing 7 wide at the top of the stretch and circle the wall of horses blocking his way to the finish line. Especially for a horse making his first start as a 3-year old.

Mind you, not everyone's a believer. A number of commentators have stated that they don't believe that Pyro is a quality horse because the pace of the race was extremely slow (1:44.68 for the mile and 1/16). I will give it to them that the 3-year old fillies running a half hour beforehand on the same track would have left the whole field in their dust. But why exactly does that bring Pyro's quality into question? Logic, and history, states that when the pace is slow in a race, the front runners are less likely to get tired. As such, they're all going to have some extra kick left in the final furlong to help turn back the desperate late charges of the confirmed closers. A slow pace should make it well nigh impossible for a horse to pull off a Silky Sullivan finish like that (and yes, that hero of yesteryear is the first name that srang to my mind after watching the race replay). Andy Breyer agrees with me, and if that's not a name to convince you, then clearly you've come to the wrong blog.

So what does this all mean?

It means Pyro is a good horse. It means I am not a terrible handicapper (not a good one, mind you, but not terrible). And it means maybe I can justify starting my own blog about my hardcore horse racing obsession. So, without further ado, welcome to my blog. Let's see if it's worth the yearly $99 subscription to The Blood Horse.

Did I mention I called the trifecta?