It's not all 3-year old's

Though you might find this hard to believe in early spring in America. It's so easy to get focused on the Derby preps that you almost forget there are older horses running out there. In fact, about the only thing that can drag my eyes away from descriptions of how the current crop of 3-year olds is progressing are pictures of the adorable foals that are dropping to the ground in droves this time of year. Yesterday, I actually squealed at a photo in The Blood Horse. "Oooohhh, look" I said to my very patient husband, turning the magazine around for him to see, "Baby Curlin." Actually, although the picture of the champion was undeniably cute, a second look had me blinking at his hind legs and wondering if he was just standing weird. Or maybe his conformation leaves something to be desired. I've never heard anyone disparage his form, and it's rather hard to tell from the brief glimpses one gets on TV, or from pictures of him frozen in full gallop at the wire. Lovely shoulders...but those hind legs...hmmmm. Regardless, although it helps, conformation in itself does not win races. Horses do. And although conformation may have much to do with how well a horse can keep himself together for a career beyond his three-year old season, it's not definitive. Which, of course, is why Curlin is now a 4-year old cantering through the deserts of Dubai and pointing towards the richest race in the world.

Which brings us back to our original point about there being more than just 3-year old Derby (and Oaks) preps in the spring. One of these is the Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes, which is being run this coming Saturday.

Now, I'm American, and that means that I know Jack about turf horses compared with the rest of the world, but I do try to pay attention. I do try to read the stakes records from other countries where just about everyone runs on grass (and in the wrong direction, and sometimes over hurdles), but in all truth, I'm a bit lost. So, it should be a good exercise for me to take a look at this race (knowing comparatively little about the contenders and nothing about the course) and attempting to pick a runner or two. So, I've decided to do a little profile on the race itself. Prepare to be educated:

The Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes is a grade I rated race for 4-year olds and up on the turf. It is a mile and 3/8 long (or 11 furlongs), which puts it smack dab in between the a mile and a quarter length of the Kentucky Derby and the mile and a half of the Belmont. It was previosuly run at the shorter distance of a mile and 1/16 (which is a much more common length for an American race), and in 2006 was run at a mile and 7/16....which is a sixteenth of a mile longer than it currently is. One assumes they cut the length down to its current size because 1 and 7/16 is just too cumbersome a description for turf writers. All runners carry 123 pounds.

The record time for the race of 2:10.73 was set by a horse named Yagli (whom I've never heard of, but that's not surprising) in 1999. Given that a horse running eleven furlongs at a twelve-clip (the timing of 12 seconds to the furlong which is usually considered to be a good basic pace for a stakes race) would finish the race in 2:12, Yagli has set a fairly high standard...especially when one considers that the pace of most turf races is generally slower than that of races run on dirt. Curiously, Gulfsteam Park lists its record time for 1 and 3/8 on the turf track as being set by another horse (Prince Arch) and being only 2:11.4....which is a tad confusing. Regardless, the race was won by Jambalaya (by Langfur) last year and by Einstein the year before that (note this for later on).

The horses contesting this year's $350,000 in prizes are:

1. Dave

This 7-year old New York bred gelding by End's Well is trained by Barclay Tagg (of Funny Cide fame). Dave, who suffers from an unbelievably boring name, had his last start in December in the 1 1/2 mile W. L. McKnight Handicap (gr. IIT) , where he finished fourth. Prior to that, he won the 1 3/8-mile Red Smith Handicap (gr. IIT) in November. He is 6-10-3 from 35 starts, which gives him a 17% win record, and puts him in the money a good 54% of the time.

2. Thorn Song

Thorn Song is a 5-year old by Unbridled’s Song out of Festal by Storm Bird. Thorn Song was 4th last in the 1 1/16 mile Canadian Turf Handicap (g.IIIT), leading most of the way and fading in the stretch. Prior to that he won the 1 1/8 mile River City Handicap (g.IIIT) in November. His record is 4-4-2, though I can't seem to find a total race record for him...and he really only seems to have come into his own at 4 (i.e. last year) anyways.

Photo: Churchill Downs/Reed Palmer

3. Zann (photo unavailable)

Zann (a 5-year old son of Dynaformer) was a hard closing second, losing in a photo finish in his last trip out in the 1 mile 1/16 Citation Handicap (g.IT), but that was way back in November. Zann was a hard closing second, losing in a photo finish in his last race previous to that, the Oak Tree Mile (g.IIT), but that was way back in October. Are we seeing a pattern here? He's got a new trainer in Kiaran McLaughlin and a new jockey, Elvis Trujillo, since then. He's been a victor in 3 of his 13 starts, giving him a 23% win rate, but his close closing seconds keep his connections placing him in progressively longer and longer races, hoping to wear down the front runners.

4. Einstein

See, I told you to take note earlier on. Yes, Einstein (Spend A Buck- Gay Charm by Ghadeer), a 6-year old gelding, won this race once before in 2006. However, that was the one year when it was run at a crazy 1 mile and 7/16. Last year, he finished 3rd. As such, we know he likes the track, and we know he can go the distance, but we don't know much more. No horse has ever repeated a win in the Gulfstream Park Turf. His last race was the Donn Handicap (g.I) on the dirt, in which he finished a tired 6th. Prior to that he went wire to wire in a 1 mile turf allowance race. Prior to that he was taking an 8 month sabbatical in a pasture. He's trained by Helen Pitts, who is currently the least lucky person in horse racing, having trained Curlin last year only to have him removed from her barn when he started to hit the big time, and who had the exact same thing happen this year with Derby hopeful Face the Cat (more on him tomorrow). Einsten is owned by Midnight Cry Stables, which is currently the least lucky stable in the world, seeing as how its owners screwed over a bunch of injured plaintiffs and are now embroiled in a huge lawsuit. Neither of these human issues have any effect on how he will run this weekend, but they certainly make the race more interesting.

Photo: Equi-Photo\Matt Dean

5. Dancing Forever (photo unavailable)

Dancing Forever (Keeper-Forever Dancing) is a stakes winner from New Zealand. You want more info? There's not much. He appears to be fresh off the boat from down under, but he ran there on December 31st and won the Southern Trust Handicap. I presume that the race was on turf, but at what distance, against what company, or anything else about this horse's past is just a big unknown.

6. Stream of Gold

This 7-year old gelding by Rainbow Quest was second in the W. L. McKnight won by Dave above, and runner-up to English Channel (2007 Champion Turf Male) in the 1 mile and 1/2 Turf Classic Invitational (gr. IT) before that. He's unraced in 2008.

Photo: Terrence Dulay




7. Shamdinan

Shamdinan (Dr. Fong-Shamdara by Dr Devious) shipped over from France last fall and promptly made an impression on American soil, winning the Secretariat Stakes (g.IT) in his graded stakes debut. He went on to finish second to English Channel in the 1.5 mile 2007 Breeder's Cup Turf (g.IT). He finished 7 lengths behind English Channel, but, as I'm sure I've mentioned previously, it's hard to take anything that happened in the Monmouth mud seriously. Shamdinan did hold off third placed Red Rocks, who was the defending Breeder's Cup Turf winner. This will be his first start as a 4-year old, though .

Photo: Four Footed Fotos

8. Palace Episode

Palace Episode, a 5-year old colt by Machiavellian out of Palace Weekend by Seattle Dancer has only one allowance victory from six starts in the US after shipping here last year. Previously a Group I winner in England (like a g.I here, but with an accent), he's been stakes placed in America, but was seventh as the favorite in what appears to have been his last time out (circa October). Most interesting tidbit is his broodmare sire Seattle Dancer, famous for being the highest priced yearling ever sold at auction ($13.1 million) who was a failure at the track and not much better in the breeding shed. He's the The Green Monkey of the 1980's.

9. Notable Guest


Notable Guest (Kingmambo-Yenda by Dancing Knave) is a 7-year oldwho has been stakes placed in 4 of his 5 finishes since coming to the US for the 2007 season. It's hard to find much info about the colt (who doesn't seem to have actually won any stakes races since he came to America)...or maybe I'm just getting tired over all the research for this extremely long blog piece. He certainly has the pedigree for grass racing. Apparently, he's been sold as a breeding prospect to investors in Brazil, so you better get a look at him now before he says "Adios!"


10. Cougar Bay (photo unavailable)

Rounding out the field is the 5-year old Daylami gelding, Cougar Bay. He's also trained by Barclay Tagg and he ran last in a one mile allowance race in mid January. Once again, he's a stakes competitor overseas (like most good grass horses), but it's hard to find any info on him that's recent. Man, I must be getting tired of writing.


On to the analysis!


Okay, Einstein likes the track and the distance, so he's clearly going to be in the mix, but I don't think you can just throw out his last race (the Donn) by saying he doesn't like the dirt. A lot of class horses don't like dirt and still can manage better than 6th place. His prep for that race was also nothing to shout about. Meanwhile, I thought English Channel's win in the Breeder's Cup turf was aided significantly by the soft ground and can be discounted, while my pick for that race (Red Rocks) got just edged out by Shamdinan. The only thing he's got going against him is this being his first 2008 start, and that's not a big minus to his credit. Meanwhile, Zann looks better and better the longer he runs. I don't know how he'll react to the change in rider and trainer, but in general horses seem to get better rather than worse once they show up in Kiaran's barn. However, his last two close finishes make me think that maybe he likes a little side by side running action more than he likes winning, so I'm not going to give him the win. Dave has been about as consistent as you can get, and I do love a consistent horse. He's also shown he can win over 1 3/8, which I like to see when I'm picking winners for a big route race. If I had to pick a 4th, I'd go with Cougar Bay. His record's not that impressive, but Barclay looks to have been pointing him to this spot specifically.


1. Shamdinan
2. Zann
3. Dave