Sam F. Davis Stakes
Everybody seems to like Z Humor (Distorted Humor-Offtheoldblock by A.P. Indy) in this one, and I do have to say he looks good. He certainly has the pedigree to stretch out, and he's been fairly consistent in his previous races (though notably not as consistent as War Pass and Pyro); but what can I say, I chose his stablemate (the other 'Z' horse) for my fantasy stable, and there's pretty much no going back now. Meanwhile, I took a chance on the Nick Zito trained Fierce Wind (Dixie Union, you'd be surprised how hard it is to find pedigree info on non-stakes horses), making his first start in stakes company today, because who doesn't love a spring three year old who wins a mile and an eighth allowance test going away. Mind you, after today, he very well may make a great allowance horse (which isn't saying much). But, you gotta have some untested runners in your stable because someone always comes out of nowhere to be a contender. Remember Curlin this time last year? No not really, he'd just made his first (albeit impressive) start. Everyone's holding their breath to see if Smooth Air can stretch out to two turns. My initial guess? No. Honey Honey Honey (Awesome of Course-EJ's Honey by Honey Jay) knows the track, likes it, and has proved himself nearby in a 7f stakes. Other than the ignoble pedigree, what's not to like?
1. Honey Honey Honey
2. Z Humor
3. Fierce Wind (just cause he's in my stable doesn't mean I think he'll win)
Hallendale Beach
Okay, this is a turf race, and although I usually pay about as much attention to turf races before the Derby as I do to steeplechasing, Babaro unfortunately proved that you can't count the grass runners out of the Triple Crown. Heading up this one is Cowboy Cal (Giants Causeway-Texas Tammy by Seeking the Gold), who some are surprised is being kept in grass company, given that Todd Pletcher seems to be pointing him at the Derby. I don't call that surprising, I call that not actually pointing the horse for the Derby. But, whatever. The horse certainly has the pedigree and the background to win this race, so he's pretty hard to ignore. Plus, I'm not suspecting any surprises. Meanwhile, Why Tonto is worth a look, if only because his sire (Indian Charlie) has just been having a banner year so far. Cannonball hasn't been out of the money since they put him on turf and, though I hate to back a gelding pre-Derby, he's looked good in New York. In all honesty, I know next to nothing about the rest of the field, so here's the picks:
1. Cowboy Cal
2. Why Tonto
3. Cannonball
Endeavor Stakes- notably, not a Derby prep
As much as I like Dreaming of Anna (Rahy-Justenuffheart by Broad Brush), she never seems to do all that well after a layoff. I won't count her out, I just won't put her at number one. Lear's Princess (Lear Fan-Pretty City by Carson City) is coming off a disastrous Breeder's Cup Distaff finish (10th), but really, can we count anybody's performance over that slop? Before that she was 2-2-0 in stakes company and had just beat champion Rags to Riches (possibly injured) in the Gazelle. Take the Ribbon will likely be up there, but I like Meribel. Why? Well, sometimes I just don't have a good reason.
1. Lear's Princess
2. Meribel
3. Dreamining of Anna
In other news, J Be K (Silver Deputy- Major Wager by Valid Wager) was a rousing winner in just his second start, going 6f in 1:10. Pressed early by Escrow for a half mile in a sharp 45:03, he pulled away from the other contenders easily and won by 7 and a half going away to remain a perfect two for two. And it wasn't even a synthetic racetrack (point of fact, he was one of the horses recently ripped from Baffert's stable by his owner to escape the southern California debacle). It's hard at this time of the year when everybody's thinking "Derby, derby, derby" to get hot on a sprinter, and really, that's all this horse ever looks to be. But there is one connection: he was ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan, one of my Road to the Roses jocks, and the pilot of Pyro in last week's Risen Star. I've never cared for jockeys much, but I could grow to like this guy.
Premium Tap (Pleasant Tap-Premium Red by Thirty Six Red) , another consistent horse whose career I followed closely, could only manage a 4th yesterday in the G1-KSA Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup (note: still in the money, I do love this horse). However, what's this all about?
"Premium Tap, now named Allam, was defeated by just over three lengths."
They changed his name? How did I miss this nugget previously? Don't they know you don't change a horse's name midstream? I mean, isn't there a superstition against that sort of thing like there is for ships?
Settling into the "not surprising" category, Etched (Forestry-Unbridled Elain by Unbridleds Song), an impressive two-year old in the states last year, was fourth in Thursday's G3 UAE Guineas S. in Dubai. Previously undefeated, Etched lost to the (get this) 4-year old Honour Devil. Okay, I know I'm not the only one who thinks shipping a 3-year old to Dubai is not a good way to train him for a classic Triple Crown run in the states. But seriously, who runs a baby in his first start as a three year old against older horses? Mind you, Honour Devil does appear to have been bred in the southern hemisphere, so we may have a timing issue going on here, but still...
Settling into the "not surprising" category, Etched (Forestry-Unbridled Elain by Unbridleds Song), an impressive two-year old in the states last year, was fourth in Thursday's G3 UAE Guineas S. in Dubai. Previously undefeated, Etched lost to the (get this) 4-year old Honour Devil. Okay, I know I'm not the only one who thinks shipping a 3-year old to Dubai is not a good way to train him for a classic Triple Crown run in the states. But seriously, who runs a baby in his first start as a three year old against older horses? Mind you, Honour Devil does appear to have been bred in the southern hemisphere, so we may have a timing issue going on here, but still...
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