Belmont Preview

As if Big Brown (Boundary-Mien, by Nureyev) needed anything else to boost his spirits for Saturday’s coronation, winning the coveted rail position can’t have hurt. The one spot is the most consistent producer of Belmont winners, and it’s sure to allow Mr. Big the room he needs to get to the front fast. By and large, his competition are closers, so they’re likely to leave him alone regardless. (Speaking of which, where has Spark Candle, Casino Drive’s rabbit, got to? I mean, I don’t think any of us expect that Big Brown won’t push the pace unmolested, but do you want to leave that possibility to chance?) He seems to have recovered fine from his quarter crack. That doesn’t mean that it’s healed, as that will take quite a while, but he did work a bullet on Tuesday, going 5 furlongs in 1 minute and change. He reportedly left his workmate far in the dust. And really, do we expect anything less of him come Saturday afternoon?

Not I.

Mr. Big’s neighbor in the starting gate is a horse named Guadalcanal (Graeme Hall-Bassette, by Quest for Fame*GB). Never heard of him? Neither has anyone else. He’s a maiden (meaning he’s never won a race), and he’s certainly never seen anything like the competition being thrown his way this weekend. Puts me in mind of The Lark Twist (kudos to anyone who picks up on that obscure piece of horse racing trivia). Anyways, he seems to be on the improve lately and the longer the distances get, the better he runs. Last out he was a fast closing second in a mile and a half turf race. That gives him his sole distinction in this field- he’s the only horse to have run farther than a mile and a quarter. Mind you, his Beyer in that race was a ho-hum 82. But in this crazy year, when Derby favorites win from the 20th post position in their 4th lifetime start, can we really throw out anyone? At odds of 50-1, I’ll put a $2 show bet on him any day.

Macho Again (Macho Uno-Go Donna Do, by Wild Again) is, hands down, the most accomplished horse in this field. Sure, Mr. Big has won more, but Macho gets the nod for experience. Do I think he can beat Mr. Big? Hell no, but I am confident that, on a good day, he can show his heels to the rest of this field.

Denis of Cork (Harlan’s Holiday-Unbridled Girl, by Unbridled), fresh off of his third place finish in the Kentucky Derby looks to catch up to Mr. Big this weekend. Can I just say, “Ummm….no.” Sure, he looked pretty good rallying from dead last to finish in the money on Derby Day. But he had a very smooth trip to get there, and really, where did he rally to? That’s right, 3.5 lengths behind a filly who would be dead two minutes later and 8.25 lengths behind his chief competition today. There was a time earlier this year when this guy was looking like one of the best in the country. He still does. Isn’t that sad?

If Casino Drive wins it will be a triumph of pedigree over…well…just about everything else. Casino drive is by Mineshaft, a stallion who, though he did not win the Belmont Stakes (he started his career in Europe and was never entered), is the son and grandson of Belmont winners. His dam is Better Than Honor (who for those of you asleep since 2005, has suckled the last two winners of the race). But it’s hard to get too excited. Let’s face it, a horse undefeated in two starts is still a horse with just two lifetimes starts. Granted, he’s crushed his competition in both of those performances….and its not as though Big Brown had won many more races (try one) before taking the Derby…and his Beyer of 101 (91? 102? Seriously, why can the internets not agree on this number?) in the Peter Pan Stakes is nothing to shake a stick at. If anyone has a chance to put some tarnish on Mr. Big’s crown, it’s this monster.

Da’Tara (Tiznow-Torchera, by Pirate’s Bounty) looked sharp finishing second to Roman Emperor in the Barbaro Stakes on Preakness Day. But this front runner will have Mr. Big to contend with the entire mile and a half around the Belmont oval. If he couldn’t hold on for the win in his previous mile and one sixteenth start, how can you expect him to go even farther on Saturday?

Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat-Silence Beauty*JPN, by Sunday Silence) is like a box of chocolates. I’m sure you can finish the quote on your own. On Saturday, will he be the hard closing winner of Wood Memorial? The not to be ignored 4th place finisher of the Kentucky Derby? The abysmal plodder of the Louisiana Derby? Barclay wasn’t too happy with his last workout; and if Barclay ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy.

Anak Nakal (Victory Gallop-Misk, by Quiet American). In the words of Cloud Strife “…” No seriously, why do they keep putting this horse in stakes races?

Ready’s Echo (More Than Ready-Menekineko, by Kingmambo) is the favorite of my work buddy’s handicapping friend. Apparently his opinion has something to do with the colt’s breeding, which I can’t knock, though I feel its weighted slightly in favor of sprinting (read: not the Belmont). But he's certainly no Casino Drive, or Anak Nakal for that matter, when it comes to the "Who's your daddy?" factor. And I'll admit, he looked good closing in on Casino Drive in the (considerably shorter) Peter Pan Stakes (after an absolutely awful start, too). And...well actually...the more I try to talk about why my friend is wrong to like him...the more I like him. Darn.

I knew Icabad Crane (Jump Start-Adorahy, by Rahy) would do something in the Preakness Stakes, and he ended up doing even better than I thought. WIth a record of 3-0-2 in 5 lifetime starts, it's hard not to like the guy.

I’m gonna go out on a limb here and make a completely silly prediction. I’m going with the same finish we had in the Preakness. Call it woman’s intuition.

1. Big Brown
2. Macho Again
3. Icabad Crane

Betting wise, I think I’ll stick with my gut choices:

$2 on Mr. Big to win (for posterity)
$2 Trifecta of Mr. Big, Macho Again and Icabad Crane
$2 on Guadalcanal to show (for my great uncle who fought at the battle of the same name...mind you, I only have his word for that...and this is the same guy who was convinced that little green aliens/elves were living in his basement)
$2 on Tale of Ekati to show (for my grandmother, who’s 88, and always bets #7)

And some other completely random/weird specialized bet that I haven’t figured out yet, just for the heck of it.

In other news

- Screw the United Postal Service, Kent Desormeaux is shilling for HOOTERS!

- And now for something considerably more tasteful: It was recently announced that Eight Belles would be interred at the Kentucky Derby Museum, joining the ranks of other four prior Kentucky Derby winners. Additionally, Churchill Downs announced that they will be renaming the La Troienne stakes (a three-year old filly race on the Derby undercard) for Eight Belles. I think that’s a great change. I know I groused about the re-Christening of the Sir Barton, but in this case La Troienne (though a fine racemare in Europe) is really best known as a broodmare in the States. Her legacy has been the excellent sons and daughthers she produced, a feat which Eight Belles never got the chance to equal.