Saturday, February 23, 2008

We now return to our regularly scheduled program

So, back to three-year olds on dirt. There's only one prep race this weekend, but it's a biggie with a field of 12 Derby hopefuls trying to keep themselves on the path to glory.

The Fountain of Youth

My picks this week are made somewhat easier by the fact that two of the entrants are in my RttR stable. Court Vision (Gulch-Weekend Storm by Storm Bird, and can I just say I love this breeding for a classic distance horse?) is 4-3-1-0, because he wisely skipped out on the Breeder's Cup Juvenile where every other quality juvenile was left churning in War Pass' muddy wake. His last race was a win in th 1 1/8 Remsen Stakes (g.II) back in November, so he'll be putting in his first 3-year old performance today. However, he's talented and beautifully bred, and if he doesn't trip over himself he'll do well.

My other horse, Elysium Fields, is something of a shot in the dark. Today will mark his first attempt at stakes company. He placed in all his starts last year, and finally broke his maiden this year in a 1 1/8 mile allowance race over the Gulfstream track. He likes the track, he goes the distance, and he's by El Prado so he's bred to go farther. Sooooo, he'll either prove himself today, or I'll probably have to make myself a new RttR stable (I can't afford one injury and one non-performer...plus I've got Giant Moon sitting there on his haunches doing nothing as it is). Oh well, best of luck my friend.

Also entered are Monba (Maria's Mon- Hamba, by Easy Goer), who was last 4th behind Into Mischief in the 1 1/16 mile Cash Call Futurity (g.I) in December. Now, I refused to put Into Mischief into my stable because I thought he looked too much like a sprinter who got lucky over a mile. I don't know what I think about anyone who finished behind him, except that they got outrun. Monba just looks to me like a horse bred to go green (read: run on grass) and I can't support his Derby bid.

Anak Nakal will also be making his 2008 debut and is most people's first or second choice. He's 3-2-1-0, but just about all the quality juveniles coming back for their first 3-year old start will look that good on paper (especially if they passed on the Breeder's Cup). He's by Victory Gallop (who was second, second and first in his own Triple Crown attempt) out of Misk by Quiet American (curiously, the sire of Real Quiet, who was first, first and second in Victory Gallop's Triple Crown attempt). In other words, this guy has Derby written all over his pedigree, and in any other year he'd be on my list. There just wasn't room. Trust me, he's number 11. Well, actually, I guess he's #10 (damn you Crown of Thorns!!!). I really can't say anything bad about him, except that his last win (the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, g.II) was 1 mile and 1/16 while Court Vision's was the longer 1 1/8 mile distance, so Court Vision gets the nod.

Halo Najib (Halo's Image) was a recent stakes winner at a mile and a sixteenth...very recent. He raced 13 days ago in the Darley OBS Championship stakes. I salute his connections for going back to the old iron horse tradition, where Whirlaway was given an allowance race in between his Preakness and Belmont wins. However, I do question their motives as it appears he's only in this race for the money (well, for the graded earnings he needs to get into the Derby). I've got Derby mania myself, but I wouldn't kill a good quality horse for it.

Z Humour is the surprise entry here. Hey, didn't I already talk about this guy recently? Yep, his connections have put him back in a race just 8 days after his disappointing 5th place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. Perhaps the horse needed that race as a tune up. Perhaps Bill Mott has seen some marked improvement in the colt that makes him think it's worth giving him another chance. Heck, perhaps Z Humour had a mouth abscess that wasn't discovered until after the Sam F. Davis which was the sole cause of him backing off the bit (nod your head if you recognize that bit of horse racing trivia). But sorry, this just looks like desperation to me. It's entirely possible that Z Humor will win by ten lengths going away today (hey, anything's possible). Either that or he's finished.

I've heard there are other horses in this race, but in all reality I don't expect much from them (of course, having now said that, just watch the Trifecta fill with names unmentioned herein).

1. Court Vision
2. Anak Nakal
3. Elysium Fields

Now there's a playing favorites pick if I ever saw one. Ah well, sometimes it just turns out that everyone agrees with you regarding the horses you think are the best.

In other news

War Pass (Cherokee Run- Vue by Mr. Prospector) will be making his 3-year old debut this week, but not in the Fountain of Youth, or any stakes level race for that matter. He's been entered in a one mile allowance race on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth. The champion two-year old male and Breeder's Cup Juvenile winner is undefeated in 4 starts and looks to decimate his company. Clearly his trainer wants to take it easy with his prize horseflesh and give him a slow tune-up for his likely Tampa Bay Derby entrance in March. He doesn't need the graded earnings that most of the other horses on the trail need to make up, so why push him?

Because he's a race horse. A stakes race horse. And I question the motives of any trainer who holds his alleged best three-year old back in allowance company. Well see in March what War Pass has in store for us, but until then...well...I have to say, I'm in doubt of his fitness.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

I think this one will be close, but Monba deserves more credit. His sire produced Strong Contender who was on the trail late but came up short on earnings. The breeding is definitely there if you ask me.

Court Vision will be tough, I think he will be a top choice on derby day. I enjoyed your article.

Patrick J Patten said...

Becky, thanks for linking to me, i'll return the favor. If you want to be part of the TBA send me an email (handrideclothing@yahoo.com), 1 requirement is 2 months of blogging, but you are off to a great start.