By now, we're all familiar with the horses. We're scrutinizing their last works with squinting, suspicious eyes. We're holding our breaths for the post position draw. And we're planning our bets, which oftentimes have little or nothing to do with how we actually think (or hope) the race will turn out. Now it's time to examine some questions which have come up in my analysis recently and may, or may not, have any actual effect on the race.
1. What happened in the Bluegrass?
This has got to have been the defining race of the entire prep season. No fewer than 6 Derby entrants were featured in it, and never has so poor an effort been expended by so many good horses. How much credit do you give to the synthetic surfaces? We already know that some horses raised on fake dirt show problems adjusting to the real thing (and what a world have we humans created where our thoroughbreds no longer know how to run on dirt?), but can we really excuse so many dirt performers who spinned their wheels their first time out on the plastic? Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Pyro, and Visionaire all put in surprisingly bad performances in their first steps on a synthetic track. Meanwhile turf specialist Cowboy Cal and sometime synthetic winner Monba all but collectively wired the field.
If just one good horse put in a bad performance, you could question whether or not to throw out the race with the claim that the change in track affected him. But here we're dealing with a mass defection of the dirt running ranks. Combine that with the apparent brilliance of the two questionable dirt performers. What we're dealing with here does not appear to be just one or two horses not taking to the track, but rather a general change in the quality of the track as a whole. A change dramatically away from that of the Derby.
In other words, I think you have to throw out the Bluegrass. No, not just for Pyro, and not just because my natural affection for that horse makes me want to throw it out. Throw it out for everyone. I might (might) give Monba credit for his performance in it, because we've been seeing a lot of synthetic running horses transfer well to the dirt this year, but everyone else gets it wiped from their slate. The Bluegrass, essentially, has been Black-carded.
So what does that mean? It means Pyro still looks very good. It means Visionaire's Gotham still looks strong. It means Cool Coal Man is still a classy Mineshaft colt running comfortably under the radar. It means Cowboy Cal is still a grass horse. Monba...well...he gets props for having a darn excellent work over the Keenland surface.
2. What factor is the 2007 Breeder's Cup Juvenile?
Generally, I try to ignore a horse's 2-year old career when I'm handicapping the Derby (what happens at two, stays at two). However, it occurred to me yesterday, as I was pouring over past performance sheets, that only three hardy 2007 BCJ veterans have made it to the Derby gates this year. Only three of the 11 horses who, last year, were thought to be the cream of their crop. Pyro, Tale of Ekati, and Z Humor. Why is this important? Two reasons.
First, the BCJ is a high energy, high stress race, full of classy competition. Very rarely in a horse's life will he be thrust into a gate jammed full of the very best horses of his generation, especially in connection with a media frenzy. If the horse lasts past his 2 year old career, the next time he's likely to see anything similar is when heading towards the Derby. So, you could say the BCJ is something of a crucible for testing young thoroughbreds for Derby savvy. Similar to having a junior in high school take college entrance exams once with the idea of putting them into prep classes over the summer and having them re-take the test later on. Doing that teaches a kid how to take a grueling test; similarly, the BCJ could serve as significant preparation for the insanity which is the first Saturday in May.
Secondly, because the last BCJ was contested in the slop.
3. What's the weather like?
Current prediction for Louisville this Saturday? Scattered thunderstorms, with the same forecast for Oaks day as well. So, who's got the mudder cred? Well, Pyro is the only one of the three remaining BCJ entries to have finished in the money in that race, placing a closing second to War Pass. Ten of the 20 entrants have never seen a puddle in their lives. Visionaire recently proved he relished wet going in his Gotham win. Smooth Air has won both times his feet have touched an off track.
You can't just assume that a horse that's never run in mud will perform poorly, just like you can't assume that horses who have never run on dirt or synthetics will automatically have problems when they switch tracks. However, by watching a horse's work schedule, and closely examining his races, sometimes you can get an idea when a horse doesn't like "change".
One horse in the Derby field who doesn't seem to be phased by change is Big Brown. Turf races, dirt races, races switched to dirt from a waterlogged turf course...he seems to have done it all. Colonel John, though he's never been off of rubber running surfaces has trained so magnificently over the Churchill Down's dirt track that I have a feeling that he'll stride just as stoically upon a wet surface. Bob Black Jack, meanwhile, I have the suspicion likes his tracks fast and fake; though I'd be hard pressed to put my finger on my exact reasoning.
4. Who's your daddy?
Much has been made about which horses traditionally have the breeding to run the mile and a quarter distance of the Derby. Basically, this comes down to a question of whether (1) their sires raced successfully at this classic distance, (2) whether their sires have produced horses that successfully ran the classic distances and (3) barring any help from the stallion's quarter, whether the damsire has any distance 'bottom' to offer his grandchildren (note for n00bs- in horses sire=dad, dam=mom, grandsire=dad's father, damsire=mom's father, granddam=mom's mother...the sire's mother doesn't really have a specific term...and no, I don't know why). So, who has a classic distance running pedigree in this field? Which, if the euphemism may be abused, can "go all the way"?
Colonel John's sire, Tiznow, is the only 2 time winner of the mile and a quarter Breeder's Cup Classic, and Colonel John's damsire is Turkoman, another producer of route running offspring; so he's got both sides of the pedigree covered. Monba's sire, Maria's Mon, is often looked at as a producer of grass horses like himself, but already has one representative Derby winning son in Monarchos. Anak Nakal is a son of Victory Gallop (who was second, second and first respectively in his Triple Crown races).
Adriano, as a son of A.P. Indy and a grandson of Seattle Slew, has got the pedigree on the top side, although his dam, being by Mr. Prospector, is a bit heavy on the sprinting side. Cool Coal Man is a son of Mineshaft (and thus also a grandson of A.P.Indy). Although Mineshaft is relatively new to the breeding business, he went the mile and a quarter with style during his own career. Pyro, a son of Pulpit and another A.P. Indy grandson, also appears to have distance covered by both ends of his pedigree.
Court Vision, although descending from traditional sprinting lines on both the top (Mr. Prospector) and bottom (his dam Weekend Storm coming ultimately from the Northern Dancer sireline), his sire was Gulch, who also sired previous Derby winner Thunder Gulch out of a similar Northern Dancer line mare. Tale of Ekati is by Tale of the Cat who, though a fairly recent sire, looks to produce quality sprinters in the line of his own sire Storm Cat, however, Tale of Ekati is backed up on the underside by his Japanese bred mother, Silent Beauty, and her sire and classic distance runner, Sunday Silence.
Who shouldn't, based upon a pure pedigree analysis, run up to snuff beyond 9 furlongs?
Big Brown's sire Boundary is known primarily for sprinters; as is Gayego's sire Gilded Time and Visionaire's sire Grand Slam. None of these three horses have what I would consider a "strong underbelly", meaning distance running support on their dam's side.
Another thing to consider breeding wise is the representation of certain sire lines in Derby winners, which was discussed at length by one of my fellow bloggers. Essentially, two lines which have underproduced in Derby winners, based upon their representation of descendants in the Derby, are Northern Dancer and Damascus. There's lots of Northern Dancer line horses in this years Derby (he's kind of hard to escape in North American racing), but only one horse so thoroughly combines both the "Northern Dancer bounce" and the "Damascus curse" that I would consider dropping him from my lineup based upon this one determining factor (if I didn't already hate his guts, that is). Big Brown in inbred 3x3 to Northern Dancer and 3x4 to Damscus; and that's more than enough to convince me.
In other news
-Post positions for the Oaks have been decided and odds are finalizing:
1. Golden Doc A 12-1
2. Absolutely Cindy 20-1
3. Awesome Chic 20-1
4. Elusive Lady 30-1
5. Rasierra 50-1
6. Country Star 4-1
7. Little Belle 8-1
8. Proud Spell 7-2
9. A To The Croft 20-1
10. Bsharpsonata 6-1
11. Pure Clan 6-1
12. Eight Belles 5-2 (To Be Scratched?)
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Monday, April 28, 2008
Derby Update
Behindatthebar is skipping the roses. That allows Denis of Cork a chance to avenge himself for his poor Illinois Derby performance.
D-day minus five
The Derby crowd is finally shaping up, both figuratively (we now know that filly Proud Spell is out of the Derby, meaning that lucky Bob Black Jack is now in...Eight Belles is still a question mark) and literally, as the contenders work out over the Louisville track prior to the big day. With Colonel John (5f in 57.8), Big Brown (5f in 58.6), Eight Belles (5 f in 58.2), and Cool Coal Man (4f in 47.4) burning up the training track, it may be easy to ignore the comparatively ho hum performances this morning of my two Asmussen sweeties Pyro (4f in 49 and 4/5) and Z Fortune (4f in 51).
However, I refuse to be cast down by the more precocious morning efforts put out by some Derby hopefuls. I note that Pyro has never been what I'd call a sharp worker. Even his bullet works can hardly carry that title. In fact, just before his impressive Risen Star score, Pyro worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 and 4/5. Certainly nothing to sneeze at, but in no way eye catching. No, I think he's right on track; though Jerry Bailey, who, during the Lexington Stakes broadcast, said that he would be paying very close attention to Pyro's final works, cannot be too pleased with this non-showing combined with the obscurity of his second to last workout (there was so much fog that day that the Keenland clockers could not assign a time to the workout). I would be unsurprised to see this great colt fall in the esteem of that great former jockey by the time the post draw coverage rolls around.
I, too, am in preparations for the Derby. I have purchased my yearly bottle of Woodford Reserve. I am planning the appetizers with great care. My (very classy) emailed invites have gone out.
In other news
-Pepper's Pride made history this weekend; joining Citation, Cigar, Mister Frisky and Hallowed Dreams as the only throughbreds to win 16 races in a row. She looks to break that mark later this summer.
-Harlem Rocker triumphed over the highly regarded (and recent Derby field dropouts) J Be K and Face the Cat. Which, if nothing else, should make one person very happy.
However, I refuse to be cast down by the more precocious morning efforts put out by some Derby hopefuls. I note that Pyro has never been what I'd call a sharp worker. Even his bullet works can hardly carry that title. In fact, just before his impressive Risen Star score, Pyro worked 5 furlongs in 1:00 and 4/5. Certainly nothing to sneeze at, but in no way eye catching. No, I think he's right on track; though Jerry Bailey, who, during the Lexington Stakes broadcast, said that he would be paying very close attention to Pyro's final works, cannot be too pleased with this non-showing combined with the obscurity of his second to last workout (there was so much fog that day that the Keenland clockers could not assign a time to the workout). I would be unsurprised to see this great colt fall in the esteem of that great former jockey by the time the post draw coverage rolls around.
I, too, am in preparations for the Derby. I have purchased my yearly bottle of Woodford Reserve. I am planning the appetizers with great care. My (very classy) emailed invites have gone out.
In other news
-Pepper's Pride made history this weekend; joining Citation, Cigar, Mister Frisky and Hallowed Dreams as the only throughbreds to win 16 races in a row. She looks to break that mark later this summer.
-Harlem Rocker triumphed over the highly regarded (and recent Derby field dropouts) J Be K and Face the Cat. Which, if nothing else, should make one person very happy.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Breakfast of Champions
I'd like to see a show of hands from those who have been playing The BloodHorse's March Into May game (a sort of March Madness type bracket where horse racing greats are pitted against one another in a public opinion poll of ultimate greatness) who did not think from the outset that the final round would come down to a match race between classic American hero Man o' War and ESPN's 35th greatest athlete of the 20th century, Secretariat. As for me, clicking upon the link to the final round this morning, I was not at all surprised. Notably, I could have also predicted that Seattle Slew and Citation would arrange themselves comfortably into the 3rd and 4th positions; and Spectacular Bid was the only choice to surprise me from the round of 8. Ah, if only real March Madness brackets were this easy to predict, I'd be rich.
It's pretty much undisputed among horse racing fans (at least, those in America) that Big Red was the greatest horse of all time, but the question which does often get bandied about is "Which one?" As I stated, ESPN chimed in with their selection, naming only one racehorse to their top 50 athletes and devoting a hour long documentary to Secretariat, despite cries by sports fans that it was a travesty to choose a horse over a human. The Blood Horse staff had their say in Thoroughbred Champions, choosing the great Man o' War instead.
Both colts were clearly the best of their generation. Both won sprint races and routes, on dirt and grass, against older competition, breaking long standing records and making it all look easy. Both were Horse of the year; neither raced at 4 or beyond. Both were regally bred. They were similar in size; both huge- Man o' War reached 16'2 hands and topped the scales at 1125 pouds, while Secretariat was 16'2 hands and 1200 pounds (remind me to explain about 'hands' someday to the n00bs, let's just say for now that both horses were approximately 5 feet 6 inches at the top of their shoulders). Both passed on their greatness into quality stakes winning offspring. And, though probably the least important comparison, the most often remarked upon: they were both striking chestnuts, glowing like firebrands in their respective eras.
So who do I pick? Well, growing up I was a huge Man o' War fan. It's impossible to ignore a horse with a record of 20-1-0 in 21 starts, a horse that once won a race by a hundred lengths, a horse that, though he didn't win the Triple Crown, almost certainly would have if his owner had actually entered him in the Kentucky Derby.
For here was a horse among horses,
Cast in a Titan's mold
And the slant October sunlight
Gilded the living gold*
And Secretariat? He finished with a record of 16-3-1 in 21 starts. He won the Triple Crown, and set the record time for each of its races (though the Preakness time is debateable). His performance in the Belmont stakes, setting the world record for a mile and a half and leaving his opponets 31 lengths in his dust, still stands at the apogee of many sportmen's greatest moments. If he wasn't "th' mostess horse", then certainly he was his reincarnation.
He's a chestnut colt, and he's got a star-
He may be another Man o' War.
The kicker for me is the fact that the two grew up in vastly different times. When Man o' War was foaled in 1917, there were less than 2,000 throroughbred's registered; a testament to the fact that even the racing elite had something else to think about during World War I. In 1970, when Secretariat was foaled, there were more than 10 times that many foals. That makes for significantly greater competition. Additionally, and probably the final determiner, is the question of medication. And by that, I don't mean the generally benign medication associated with Lasix or Bute. Man o' War was raised in a time when drug testing was an impossibility, and was reputed to be one of the largest heroin abusers at the track. Baseball fans shake their heads at comparisons between the steroid pumped sport-stars of today and the baseball greats of yester-year; with horse racing we have the exact opposite problem.
I choose Secretariat. Feel free to argue with me.
* Taken from "Big Red" a poem originally printed in The Blood Horse in 1937, and which I dutifully memorized as a young girl.
Nay, say it aloud--be shameless.
Dream and hope and yearn,
For there's never a man among you
But waits for his return.
Still waiting...
In other news
- Holy cow, did you see Big Brown? Probably not; he was moving that fast. For those too lazy to click the link, he went 5 furlongs in 58.60. Read below for a more in depth understanding of that sort of speed. I might have to reassess my opinion of him.
- Almost forgot to mention Mr. Mistoffelees (Storm Cat-Country Romance, Saint Ballado), who sold for $1.5 million a couple months ago after breezing an eighth of a mile in 10 1/5 at a two-year old in training sale, lived up to his price tage and took his maiden race field by storm. For his racing debut over 4.5 furlongs at Keenland, he started out with an opening quarter mile in 21.48, followed by a four furlong time of 43.89, and drew off to win by 9 1/4 lengths. A budding superstar? Only time will tell.
It's pretty much undisputed among horse racing fans (at least, those in America) that Big Red was the greatest horse of all time, but the question which does often get bandied about is "Which one?" As I stated, ESPN chimed in with their selection, naming only one racehorse to their top 50 athletes and devoting a hour long documentary to Secretariat, despite cries by sports fans that it was a travesty to choose a horse over a human. The Blood Horse staff had their say in Thoroughbred Champions, choosing the great Man o' War instead.
Both colts were clearly the best of their generation. Both won sprint races and routes, on dirt and grass, against older competition, breaking long standing records and making it all look easy. Both were Horse of the year; neither raced at 4 or beyond. Both were regally bred. They were similar in size; both huge- Man o' War reached 16'2 hands and topped the scales at 1125 pouds, while Secretariat was 16'2 hands and 1200 pounds (remind me to explain about 'hands' someday to the n00bs, let's just say for now that both horses were approximately 5 feet 6 inches at the top of their shoulders). Both passed on their greatness into quality stakes winning offspring. And, though probably the least important comparison, the most often remarked upon: they were both striking chestnuts, glowing like firebrands in their respective eras.
So who do I pick? Well, growing up I was a huge Man o' War fan. It's impossible to ignore a horse with a record of 20-1-0 in 21 starts, a horse that once won a race by a hundred lengths, a horse that, though he didn't win the Triple Crown, almost certainly would have if his owner had actually entered him in the Kentucky Derby.
For here was a horse among horses,
Cast in a Titan's mold
And the slant October sunlight
Gilded the living gold*
And Secretariat? He finished with a record of 16-3-1 in 21 starts. He won the Triple Crown, and set the record time for each of its races (though the Preakness time is debateable). His performance in the Belmont stakes, setting the world record for a mile and a half and leaving his opponets 31 lengths in his dust, still stands at the apogee of many sportmen's greatest moments. If he wasn't "th' mostess horse", then certainly he was his reincarnation.
He's a chestnut colt, and he's got a star-
He may be another Man o' War.
The kicker for me is the fact that the two grew up in vastly different times. When Man o' War was foaled in 1917, there were less than 2,000 throroughbred's registered; a testament to the fact that even the racing elite had something else to think about during World War I. In 1970, when Secretariat was foaled, there were more than 10 times that many foals. That makes for significantly greater competition. Additionally, and probably the final determiner, is the question of medication. And by that, I don't mean the generally benign medication associated with Lasix or Bute. Man o' War was raised in a time when drug testing was an impossibility, and was reputed to be one of the largest heroin abusers at the track. Baseball fans shake their heads at comparisons between the steroid pumped sport-stars of today and the baseball greats of yester-year; with horse racing we have the exact opposite problem.
I choose Secretariat. Feel free to argue with me.
* Taken from "Big Red" a poem originally printed in The Blood Horse in 1937, and which I dutifully memorized as a young girl.
Nay, say it aloud--be shameless.
Dream and hope and yearn,
For there's never a man among you
But waits for his return.
Still waiting...
In other news
- Holy cow, did you see Big Brown? Probably not; he was moving that fast. For those too lazy to click the link, he went 5 furlongs in 58.60. Read below for a more in depth understanding of that sort of speed. I might have to reassess my opinion of him.
- Almost forgot to mention Mr. Mistoffelees (Storm Cat-Country Romance, Saint Ballado), who sold for $1.5 million a couple months ago after breezing an eighth of a mile in 10 1/5 at a two-year old in training sale, lived up to his price tage and took his maiden race field by storm. For his racing debut over 4.5 furlongs at Keenland, he started out with an opening quarter mile in 21.48, followed by a four furlong time of 43.89, and drew off to win by 9 1/4 lengths. A budding superstar? Only time will tell.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
The Ghost of Derby's Past
It's about this time every year that people start to make their tentative Derby predictions. Tentative because everyone wants to see how their favorites perform in their final workouts prior to the big race. Tentative because everyone wants to see the post-position draw before they truly commit. Tentative because you never really know when a horse might bow out to sickness or injury at the last possible moment (look at what happened to War Pass). And tentative because, well, everyone's been burned before.
Ask any number of handicapping fans (mind you, I haven't), what the hardest race in America to pick is, and probably every one would say the Derby. Most of the entrants have never run a full mile and a quarter before, and many never will again. They've probably never faced a field of the size (usually 20 entrants) and caliber that every Derby brings, and they almost certainly never will again. There's questions about the horse taking to the Churchill track (more significant this year with all the synthetic track specialists shipping in), about whether it will handle the travel to Kentucky like a pro, and about handling the heightened pre-Derby stress (trust me, they feel it too, even if just secondhand from their human handlers). It's not the average list of 20 variables, it's a list of twenty variables per horse. How many prior races? How many at 3? What are the speed figures? How did it do in the last race? Who's his daddy and did his daddy go the distance? What about his mom? Wait a minute, this is a filly we're talking about?!
One could go on and on.
So it should be no surprise to anyone reading this that I have never picked a Derby winner. That's right, never. Not in almost 20 years of devoted following of the sport. The only person I know with a worse track record in choosing winners is probably my grandmother-in-law, who in 76 years has never voted for a winning presidential candidate. As such, I thought I'd make all the handicappers out there who are feeling clueless right now feel a lot better by posting my failed picks for Derby's past (those I can remember anyways).
2007- Nobiz Like Showbiz (10th)
2006- Lawyer Ron (12th)
2005- High Limit (20th...god that's embarrassing)
2004- Imperialism (3rd)
2003- Peace Rules (2nd)
2002- Medaglia d'Oro (4th)
2001- Point Given (5th)
2000- War Chant (9th)
1999- Cat Thief (3rd)
1998- Favorite Trick (8th)
1997- Actually, I've no idea...maybe Pulpit? Anyways, didn't win.
1996- Skip Away (12th)
1995- Serena's Song (16th)
1994- Holy Bull (12th)
1993- Prarie Bayou (2nd)
1992- Pistols and Roses/Arazi (hey, so I bought into the superhorse hype...neither won)
1991- Best Pal (2nd)
1990- Pleasant Tap (3rd)....I think...give me a break, I was 11
So do I really have any hopes that Pyro will come in first on Derby day? No, not really. Unless I can somehow convince my grandmother-in-law to put some money on every other horse in the race.
In other news
- Just days after I commented to my husband that the powers that be better darn well award Better Than Honor as Broodmare of the Year, the powers that be acceded. A dam of both last year's speactacular Belmont winning filly Rags To Riches (by A.P. Indy) and the 2006 Belmont winner Jazil (by Seeking the Gold, and now a motion picture star), I can't think of a mare more deserving. The 12-year-old Deputy Minister mare out of the Blushing Groom mare, Blush With Pride, is the only broodmare to ever produce consecutive Belmont winners. And, she has a chance at producing a third since her 3-year old colt Casino Drive (by Mineshaft) has just been shipped over to the States from Japan and is pointing towards a Belmont start by way of the Peter Pan Stakes on May 10th. And if that weren't enough to convince you, her first foal, Teeming (by Storm Cat), was a $1.5 million weanling and a winner at the track. Good job sweetie, it's well deserved.
- Pepper's Pride is making a run for greatness, by attempting to remain undefeated in 16 races. If she's successful in this Saturday's Russell and Helen Foutz Distaff Handicap, run as usual against her fellow New Mexico breds, she will have tied the record of other racing greats in the Sweet Sixteen club, greats including Citation and Cigar. You go girl.
Ask any number of handicapping fans (mind you, I haven't), what the hardest race in America to pick is, and probably every one would say the Derby. Most of the entrants have never run a full mile and a quarter before, and many never will again. They've probably never faced a field of the size (usually 20 entrants) and caliber that every Derby brings, and they almost certainly never will again. There's questions about the horse taking to the Churchill track (more significant this year with all the synthetic track specialists shipping in), about whether it will handle the travel to Kentucky like a pro, and about handling the heightened pre-Derby stress (trust me, they feel it too, even if just secondhand from their human handlers). It's not the average list of 20 variables, it's a list of twenty variables per horse. How many prior races? How many at 3? What are the speed figures? How did it do in the last race? Who's his daddy and did his daddy go the distance? What about his mom? Wait a minute, this is a filly we're talking about?!
One could go on and on.
So it should be no surprise to anyone reading this that I have never picked a Derby winner. That's right, never. Not in almost 20 years of devoted following of the sport. The only person I know with a worse track record in choosing winners is probably my grandmother-in-law, who in 76 years has never voted for a winning presidential candidate. As such, I thought I'd make all the handicappers out there who are feeling clueless right now feel a lot better by posting my failed picks for Derby's past (those I can remember anyways).
2007- Nobiz Like Showbiz (10th)
2006- Lawyer Ron (12th)
2005- High Limit (20th...god that's embarrassing)
2004- Imperialism (3rd)
2003- Peace Rules (2nd)
2002- Medaglia d'Oro (4th)
2001- Point Given (5th)
2000- War Chant (9th)
1999- Cat Thief (3rd)
1998- Favorite Trick (8th)
1997- Actually, I've no idea...maybe Pulpit? Anyways, didn't win.
1996- Skip Away (12th)
1995- Serena's Song (16th)
1994- Holy Bull (12th)
1993- Prarie Bayou (2nd)
1992- Pistols and Roses/Arazi (hey, so I bought into the superhorse hype...neither won)
1991- Best Pal (2nd)
1990- Pleasant Tap (3rd)....I think...give me a break, I was 11
So do I really have any hopes that Pyro will come in first on Derby day? No, not really. Unless I can somehow convince my grandmother-in-law to put some money on every other horse in the race.
In other news
- Just days after I commented to my husband that the powers that be better darn well award Better Than Honor as Broodmare of the Year, the powers that be acceded. A dam of both last year's speactacular Belmont winning filly Rags To Riches (by A.P. Indy) and the 2006 Belmont winner Jazil (by Seeking the Gold, and now a motion picture star), I can't think of a mare more deserving. The 12-year-old Deputy Minister mare out of the Blushing Groom mare, Blush With Pride, is the only broodmare to ever produce consecutive Belmont winners. And, she has a chance at producing a third since her 3-year old colt Casino Drive (by Mineshaft) has just been shipped over to the States from Japan and is pointing towards a Belmont start by way of the Peter Pan Stakes on May 10th. And if that weren't enough to convince you, her first foal, Teeming (by Storm Cat), was a $1.5 million weanling and a winner at the track. Good job sweetie, it's well deserved.
- Pepper's Pride is making a run for greatness, by attempting to remain undefeated in 16 races. If she's successful in this Saturday's Russell and Helen Foutz Distaff Handicap, run as usual against her fellow New Mexico breds, she will have tied the record of other racing greats in the Sweet Sixteen club, greats including Citation and Cigar. You go girl.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Horse Racing for Noobs
It was pointed out to me that, for someone trying to get non-racing fans into the sport, my posts are a filled with jargon virtually unreadable to the common man. As such, I've decided to try and provide some layman explanations of terms and subjects which are second nature to horse racing aficionados. So without further ado, here's is the first post in my Horse Racing for Noob's series.
Lesson #1- Horse Racing Math
One of the things I used to find the most difficult to understand about horse racing was the math. I'm a verbally oriented person myself, and though I'd heard the classic joke about figuring out the speed of light in furlongs per fortnight (it's 1,802,617,500,000, by the way), that doesn't really tell you much if you don't know what furlong is. In a room of 6 intelligent folks this past weekend (not counting myself, of course) only one person knew what a furlong was, and he was accused of guessing.
A furlong, very simply, is 1/8 of a mile. Therefore, 8 furlongs (or 8f, as it may sometimes be shortened) is a mile. The American classic distance for a race is a mile and a quarter, or 10 furlongs. The mile and a half length of the Belmont (which is about as far as horses go in the Western hemisphere) is 12 furlongs. The Preakness is an oddball, being a mile and 3/16. That's 9.5 furlongs. Weirded out yet?
Now we bring speed into the picture. When horses work before a race they'll work a certain number of furlongs. Sometimes they'll 'gallop', which, despite being the name for the fastest gait a horse has, actually implies that the horse is going slow and not being pushed. They could also 'breeze', which means they are being encouraged a little, but not pushed into an all out drive. Sometimes they may have a "blowout", which is a fast work where the horse is pushed along a bit, and is often given shortly before an expected race. So how do you know when a horse is actually going fast, either in a race or a work?
Basically, although there is some variation over types of tracks and over the spread of years, it's accepted that a horse is going pretty fast when it runs a furlong in 12 seconds (that's about 37.5 miles per hour). This is somewhat archaically referred to as a "twelve-clip". I don't think people actually say that much anymore, but since I grew up reading books about great horses of the past, I tend to favor an older vocabulary. Most stakes horses should be able to string together at least 4 furlongs in 12, it's when you start getting beyond those distances that things get heavy. Here's the breakdown of times for various racing and working lengths (in minutes and seconds):
4 furlongs- 48 seconds
5 furlongs- 1:00
6 furlongs- 1:12
7 furlongs- 1:24
8 furlongs- 1:36
9 furlongs- 1:48
10 furlongs- 2:00
11 furlongs- 2:12
12 furlongs-2:24
This, of course, should not be taken to mean that the horses actually run 12 seconds every furlong; usually it's less than twelve for some furlongs of the race, more than 12 for others. But basically, if you see horses racing for the half mile pole in a race and the clock stops at 47 "and change" (meaning 47 seconds and a partial second), you know the front runners are not loafing along. If your horse works 4f in 46.60 (as Eight Belles did recently), you know it's blazing along (notably, Eight Belles' trainer thought she might have gone too fast for that workout).
Now, to show you how hard it is to keep this pace up. We'll do this by examining the three very familiar Triple Crown races (run conveniently at 3 different distances). As I said, most good horses can keep up this top speed for a handful of furlongs, but it gets progressively harder the longer you go. The mile and 3/16 Preakness should (if a horse were to keep up a twelve clip the whole time) produce a running time of 1:54. This running time has been equaled or beaten on numerous occasions in the history of the race.
Comparatively, in the 133 years the Kentucky Derby has been run, only 4 horses have ever finished the race with a time of 2:00 flat or better.* The fastest time ever for the Derby was 1:59 and 2/5 seconds (note that, although more sophisticated timers now allow for calculation of running times into the hundredths place, older races could only be determined down to fifths of a second and often people still refer to these divisions when referencing a horse's performance). So, even the fastest time ever for that classic race is only 3/5th's of a second faster than the 2 minute mark. Mind you, this is not the world record performance for a mile and a quarter distance, but given the myriad of difficulties a horse can run into in the Derby, it is by no means unimpressive.
Moving on to the Belmont, which at a mile and a half, is likely to be the longest race an American horse will ever run. The time of 2:24 has only been achieved once in the race, and that performance stands as the world record mark for that distance. The next closest finish for the Belmont is 2:26, meaning that the second best Belmont performer ever would still have finished 2 seconds behind the world record mark.
So what does 2 seconds mean, really? It doesn't seem like that much, but in a sport that measures time by fifths of a second regularly (and even smaller fractions practically), it's a considerable amount. Generally, 1/5th of a second is assumed to equal approximately one horse length. How much is that? Well, it's not an exact measurement. It's supposedly as long as a horse is from nose to tail, basically 8 feet or so. So, if we assume that a horse travels about 5 lengths every second, a horse 2 seconds behind another is cruising along 10 lengths (or 80 feet) behind the leader. More impressively, the horse that actually managed the 2:24 Belmont finished 31 lengths (or 248 feet) in front of the second place horse that day. Man o' War was once reported to have won a race (obviously, over questionable competition) by 100 lengths. Yes, that's 800 feet, or 266 yards (basically, 2 and a half football fields).
So there you have the basic math necessary to understand running times and works. I hope that this has been educational for you all.
* My favorite horse racing trivia trick question is "Name all 4 horses to have finished the Derby in 2 minutes or less." Answer (from fastest to slowest times) in inviso-text below:
Secretariat, Sham (who was 2nd to Secretariat), Monarchos, Northern Dancer
Lesson #1- Horse Racing Math
One of the things I used to find the most difficult to understand about horse racing was the math. I'm a verbally oriented person myself, and though I'd heard the classic joke about figuring out the speed of light in furlongs per fortnight (it's 1,802,617,500,000, by the way), that doesn't really tell you much if you don't know what furlong is. In a room of 6 intelligent folks this past weekend (not counting myself, of course) only one person knew what a furlong was, and he was accused of guessing.
A furlong, very simply, is 1/8 of a mile. Therefore, 8 furlongs (or 8f, as it may sometimes be shortened) is a mile. The American classic distance for a race is a mile and a quarter, or 10 furlongs. The mile and a half length of the Belmont (which is about as far as horses go in the Western hemisphere) is 12 furlongs. The Preakness is an oddball, being a mile and 3/16. That's 9.5 furlongs. Weirded out yet?
Now we bring speed into the picture. When horses work before a race they'll work a certain number of furlongs. Sometimes they'll 'gallop', which, despite being the name for the fastest gait a horse has, actually implies that the horse is going slow and not being pushed. They could also 'breeze', which means they are being encouraged a little, but not pushed into an all out drive. Sometimes they may have a "blowout", which is a fast work where the horse is pushed along a bit, and is often given shortly before an expected race. So how do you know when a horse is actually going fast, either in a race or a work?
Basically, although there is some variation over types of tracks and over the spread of years, it's accepted that a horse is going pretty fast when it runs a furlong in 12 seconds (that's about 37.5 miles per hour). This is somewhat archaically referred to as a "twelve-clip". I don't think people actually say that much anymore, but since I grew up reading books about great horses of the past, I tend to favor an older vocabulary. Most stakes horses should be able to string together at least 4 furlongs in 12, it's when you start getting beyond those distances that things get heavy. Here's the breakdown of times for various racing and working lengths (in minutes and seconds):
4 furlongs- 48 seconds
5 furlongs- 1:00
6 furlongs- 1:12
7 furlongs- 1:24
8 furlongs- 1:36
9 furlongs- 1:48
10 furlongs- 2:00
11 furlongs- 2:12
12 furlongs-2:24
This, of course, should not be taken to mean that the horses actually run 12 seconds every furlong; usually it's less than twelve for some furlongs of the race, more than 12 for others. But basically, if you see horses racing for the half mile pole in a race and the clock stops at 47 "and change" (meaning 47 seconds and a partial second), you know the front runners are not loafing along. If your horse works 4f in 46.60 (as Eight Belles did recently), you know it's blazing along (notably, Eight Belles' trainer thought she might have gone too fast for that workout).
Now, to show you how hard it is to keep this pace up. We'll do this by examining the three very familiar Triple Crown races (run conveniently at 3 different distances). As I said, most good horses can keep up this top speed for a handful of furlongs, but it gets progressively harder the longer you go. The mile and 3/16 Preakness should (if a horse were to keep up a twelve clip the whole time) produce a running time of 1:54. This running time has been equaled or beaten on numerous occasions in the history of the race.
Comparatively, in the 133 years the Kentucky Derby has been run, only 4 horses have ever finished the race with a time of 2:00 flat or better.* The fastest time ever for the Derby was 1:59 and 2/5 seconds (note that, although more sophisticated timers now allow for calculation of running times into the hundredths place, older races could only be determined down to fifths of a second and often people still refer to these divisions when referencing a horse's performance). So, even the fastest time ever for that classic race is only 3/5th's of a second faster than the 2 minute mark. Mind you, this is not the world record performance for a mile and a quarter distance, but given the myriad of difficulties a horse can run into in the Derby, it is by no means unimpressive.
Moving on to the Belmont, which at a mile and a half, is likely to be the longest race an American horse will ever run. The time of 2:24 has only been achieved once in the race, and that performance stands as the world record mark for that distance. The next closest finish for the Belmont is 2:26, meaning that the second best Belmont performer ever would still have finished 2 seconds behind the world record mark.
So what does 2 seconds mean, really? It doesn't seem like that much, but in a sport that measures time by fifths of a second regularly (and even smaller fractions practically), it's a considerable amount. Generally, 1/5th of a second is assumed to equal approximately one horse length. How much is that? Well, it's not an exact measurement. It's supposedly as long as a horse is from nose to tail, basically 8 feet or so. So, if we assume that a horse travels about 5 lengths every second, a horse 2 seconds behind another is cruising along 10 lengths (or 80 feet) behind the leader. More impressively, the horse that actually managed the 2:24 Belmont finished 31 lengths (or 248 feet) in front of the second place horse that day. Man o' War was once reported to have won a race (obviously, over questionable competition) by 100 lengths. Yes, that's 800 feet, or 266 yards (basically, 2 and a half football fields).
So there you have the basic math necessary to understand running times and works. I hope that this has been educational for you all.
* My favorite horse racing trivia trick question is "Name all 4 horses to have finished the Derby in 2 minutes or less." Answer (from fastest to slowest times) in inviso-text below:
Secretariat, Sham (who was 2nd to Secretariat), Monarchos, Northern Dancer
Monday, April 21, 2008
Movie (and weekend) review
So I went to see The First Saturday in May. I dragged my husband along too, so that I could get the perspective of a relative outsider. Our final analysis? It was a darn good movie.
Allow me to preface any review by saying I am not a Barbaro fan. Yes, he was a darn good horse. Yes, he won the Derby by an impressive margin. Yes, his win, and even his career ending injury, did a lot to promote the sport. However, I was never a big fan of his before the Derby, and my fandom post-Derby 2006 amounted only to that deep urge within me to someday actually see a Triple Crown winner in the flesh, and not from any real belief that Barbaro, specifically, would provide that experience for me. He represents to me all that I do not support in thoroughbred breeding: a horse that flashed brilliance for a short time, but couldn't stay sound long enough to truly make a name for himself. I was appalled when they re-named the Sir Barton stakes in his honor. Thanks for taking the first horse to prove his grit in the American Triple Crown and replacing him with a horse that couldn't cut it. So, I was a tad worried that this movie might end up being the "All Barbaro Show". To my great pleasure (and surprise) it wasn't. My husband even thought that there wasn't enough Barbaro coverage. I, myself, have to admit that I thought they'd at least show him breaking through the Preakness gate, if not his quick cruise to the rear of the pack after Prado realized there was something wrong in the stretch.
This story was about six horses, and not just the eventual winner. More importantly, it was about the two legged companions to the horses, without which they'd be little more than hay composting machines. I thought the Hennegan brothers did exactly what they set out to do; make a movie about the people behind the horses. I loved their coverage of Lawyer Ron's 61 year old groom. You don't rub horses into your 60's for the money, you do it because you love the animals. In fact, that was a running theme among all the players in the movie, which I thuoght was brought out very well. It's a hard life to work racehorses. It's demanding. There's little reward or thanks. But the reward itself is in the horseflesh, and the ability to be near it every day.
One of the parts that almost brought me to tears was when Achilles of Troy's trainer was watching his 11 year old daughter in a horse show. His grooming of the horse and braiding its mane reminded me of how my own father would help me when I was showing. We have never had a great relationship (all right, let's be frank, I really, really don't like my dad), but one thing we could agree on was horses. It was all the more touching because you knew the dad was trying so hard to get somewhere in life so that he could make things better for his kids, and if you remember anything about Achilles of Troy in 2006, you knew that this was not going to be his year.
All of this being said, the brothers didn't forget that the horses, too, were integral to the cast. From the first close up shot of Barbaro's distinctively snipped muzzle, to Jazil holding a mint between his lips (and clearly confused about just what the hell to do with it), the Hennegans captured the fact that each of the contenders was a character unto themselves.
I listened carefully to a lot of my husband's comments. First, he liked the movie, which he stated was unexpected. Secondly, he felt that what the movie did for him was make him realize just how much each of the horses covered deserved to be in the Derby. He stated that he usually only pays attention to the favorites, or the horses I mention to him in passing (being only an itinerant fan himself). He certainly didn't remember Sharp Humor, but after seeing replays of his gutsy races that spring, realized that all the 20 Derby horses are the cream of the crop, and most certainly earned their shot at greatness. Finally, he really liked that the trainers the Hennegans chose to follow were not all the huge mega-stars of horse racing. When Todd Pletcher makes a cameo appearance towards the middle of the film, he seems almost out of place. Like he's on a pedastal that the heroes of the movie all aspire to.
My final impressions:
1. My belief that Kiaran McLaughlin is the nicest guy in horse racing was re-affirmed
2. I had forgotten how much I adored Lawyer Ron that year, and still do
3. I had forgotten about Jazil's where-the-heck-did-he-come-from Wood finish (after which I leaned over to my husband and whispered, "You know who his little sister is?")
4. Loved hearing my husband laugh at all the appropriate parts
5. I suppose I shall have to pick up a DVD copy...it is for charity
In other news
- Tomcito bombed in the Lexington. So did Atoned and Salute the Sarge. Behindatthebar triumphed, but it looks as though the Derby is not in his plans. Likely Derby entrants to come out of the Lexington: 0.
- I turned on the Lexington Stakes coverage a few minutes late to catch a list of horses with graded earnings and immediately thought, "Wait a minute, where's War Pass? He should be at the top." I hurriedly rewound the show to the beginning of coverage (thank you TiVo, I love you) to hear that War Pass was now off the Derby trail due to injury. Horses getting scratched from the Derby is not an unknown, however, it's rare that such a scratch could potentially change the whole character of the race. Here, with War Pass being one of the expected pace-setters, the outlook of the race has changed dramatically. Now who will Big Brown have to run at? Bob Black Jack? Maybe. Or maybe Big Brown will end up being the pace of the race.
- Two days after making his world premier as a movie star, Brother Derek came back after a 14.5 month layoff to grab second place in a one mile allowance race. The game old veteran appeared tired aftre the race, and I think, unfortunately, it may be time to retire the star to greener pastures.
- I'm glad I wasn't the only one heartened to hear Randy Moss say that the time of excessive whipping should be coming to an end. I almost teared up when I heard Jerry Bailey state that most horses will give you their all without a touch of the whip. I have tried again and again to tell this to people who are violently anti-racing, but until people in America recognize this and set clear rules regarding the use of the whip, I pretty much have no legs to stand on.
Allow me to preface any review by saying I am not a Barbaro fan. Yes, he was a darn good horse. Yes, he won the Derby by an impressive margin. Yes, his win, and even his career ending injury, did a lot to promote the sport. However, I was never a big fan of his before the Derby, and my fandom post-Derby 2006 amounted only to that deep urge within me to someday actually see a Triple Crown winner in the flesh, and not from any real belief that Barbaro, specifically, would provide that experience for me. He represents to me all that I do not support in thoroughbred breeding: a horse that flashed brilliance for a short time, but couldn't stay sound long enough to truly make a name for himself. I was appalled when they re-named the Sir Barton stakes in his honor. Thanks for taking the first horse to prove his grit in the American Triple Crown and replacing him with a horse that couldn't cut it. So, I was a tad worried that this movie might end up being the "All Barbaro Show". To my great pleasure (and surprise) it wasn't. My husband even thought that there wasn't enough Barbaro coverage. I, myself, have to admit that I thought they'd at least show him breaking through the Preakness gate, if not his quick cruise to the rear of the pack after Prado realized there was something wrong in the stretch.
This story was about six horses, and not just the eventual winner. More importantly, it was about the two legged companions to the horses, without which they'd be little more than hay composting machines. I thought the Hennegan brothers did exactly what they set out to do; make a movie about the people behind the horses. I loved their coverage of Lawyer Ron's 61 year old groom. You don't rub horses into your 60's for the money, you do it because you love the animals. In fact, that was a running theme among all the players in the movie, which I thuoght was brought out very well. It's a hard life to work racehorses. It's demanding. There's little reward or thanks. But the reward itself is in the horseflesh, and the ability to be near it every day.
One of the parts that almost brought me to tears was when Achilles of Troy's trainer was watching his 11 year old daughter in a horse show. His grooming of the horse and braiding its mane reminded me of how my own father would help me when I was showing. We have never had a great relationship (all right, let's be frank, I really, really don't like my dad), but one thing we could agree on was horses. It was all the more touching because you knew the dad was trying so hard to get somewhere in life so that he could make things better for his kids, and if you remember anything about Achilles of Troy in 2006, you knew that this was not going to be his year.
All of this being said, the brothers didn't forget that the horses, too, were integral to the cast. From the first close up shot of Barbaro's distinctively snipped muzzle, to Jazil holding a mint between his lips (and clearly confused about just what the hell to do with it), the Hennegans captured the fact that each of the contenders was a character unto themselves.
I listened carefully to a lot of my husband's comments. First, he liked the movie, which he stated was unexpected. Secondly, he felt that what the movie did for him was make him realize just how much each of the horses covered deserved to be in the Derby. He stated that he usually only pays attention to the favorites, or the horses I mention to him in passing (being only an itinerant fan himself). He certainly didn't remember Sharp Humor, but after seeing replays of his gutsy races that spring, realized that all the 20 Derby horses are the cream of the crop, and most certainly earned their shot at greatness. Finally, he really liked that the trainers the Hennegans chose to follow were not all the huge mega-stars of horse racing. When Todd Pletcher makes a cameo appearance towards the middle of the film, he seems almost out of place. Like he's on a pedastal that the heroes of the movie all aspire to.
My final impressions:
1. My belief that Kiaran McLaughlin is the nicest guy in horse racing was re-affirmed
2. I had forgotten how much I adored Lawyer Ron that year, and still do
3. I had forgotten about Jazil's where-the-heck-did-he-come-from Wood finish (after which I leaned over to my husband and whispered, "You know who his little sister is?")
4. Loved hearing my husband laugh at all the appropriate parts
5. I suppose I shall have to pick up a DVD copy...it is for charity
In other news
- Tomcito bombed in the Lexington. So did Atoned and Salute the Sarge. Behindatthebar triumphed, but it looks as though the Derby is not in his plans. Likely Derby entrants to come out of the Lexington: 0.
- I turned on the Lexington Stakes coverage a few minutes late to catch a list of horses with graded earnings and immediately thought, "Wait a minute, where's War Pass? He should be at the top." I hurriedly rewound the show to the beginning of coverage (thank you TiVo, I love you) to hear that War Pass was now off the Derby trail due to injury. Horses getting scratched from the Derby is not an unknown, however, it's rare that such a scratch could potentially change the whole character of the race. Here, with War Pass being one of the expected pace-setters, the outlook of the race has changed dramatically. Now who will Big Brown have to run at? Bob Black Jack? Maybe. Or maybe Big Brown will end up being the pace of the race.
- Two days after making his world premier as a movie star, Brother Derek came back after a 14.5 month layoff to grab second place in a one mile allowance race. The game old veteran appeared tired aftre the race, and I think, unfortunately, it may be time to retire the star to greener pastures.
- I'm glad I wasn't the only one heartened to hear Randy Moss say that the time of excessive whipping should be coming to an end. I almost teared up when I heard Jerry Bailey state that most horses will give you their all without a touch of the whip. I have tried again and again to tell this to people who are violently anti-racing, but until people in America recognize this and set clear rules regarding the use of the whip, I pretty much have no legs to stand on.
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