I haven't posted here in almost two weeks. I've all but stopped reading other people's racing blogs and my morning BloodHorse update. I haven't even managed to crack the Kentucky Derby re-cap edition of my BloodHorse subscription. It's sitting on my counter at home, gathering dust. Clearly, the Kentucky Derby has left me depressed this year.
And no, it's not just Eight Belles's loss. And it's not the having to explain to my co-workers and friends and random people who find out I'm a horse racing fan that- yes, it is horrible when a horse goes down like that, but accidents happen, and no there's really nothing you can do about it sometimes. And its not finding myself in the position of having to defend my favorite sport and training techniques and suspect racing surfaces and jockeys and less-than-squeaky-clean trainers and greedy owners. No, I've been through that before. I knew it was coming the instant I saw that grey form lying prone on the Churchill dirt.
I think it's more that I hate Big Brown.
I do, I admit it. I always feel a little resentment towards the winner of the Derby (which is invariably not the horse I would have chosen to win), but this year it's been worse than normal. I've had years where I didn't think the Derby winner would go on to win the Preakness, let along the remainder of the Triple Crown. Giacomo would be a good example. But never once have I not wanted the Derby winner to go on to wear the Black-Eyed Susans. So strong is my desire for another Triple Crown winner.
But I seriously want Big Brown to lose.
And it's not his fault. Not the horse at all. He's a cutie! He's got that weird white spot behind his left elbow. And he's done so much in what little time he's been on the track. He overcame what I personally saw as near insurmountable odds (the inexperience, the post position, etc.) to win with style. He went four wide that whole way around the Churchill track, and still finished like a champion. He proved that he was head and shoulders above the other horses in the race that day. And now he's going to Maryland to meet lesser (though fresher) competition.
It's hard to make a case for why he shouldn't win.
And my dear husband has promised, if he does sweep the Preakness, to take me to New York for my birthday present, to see a potential Triple Crown winner run. If only I could get excited.
I guess it's that there's nothing I hate more than arrogance. Nothing I hate more than the self-aggrandizing attitude his connections were exuding before the Derby. Nothing I hate more than people who invite the gods to strike them down for their presumption. And it kills me when people like that win. When it turns out that all their self-proclaimed superiority turns out to be correct. When they do things like deciding to retire their stud at 3, even before he's run his 5th race ever. When they can say, "Not only am I the greatest thing since sliced bread, but also, I told you so!"
But horses don't do that. They just love running. And this is something I just need to get over. And get over fast, because the Preakness is tomorrow. I'll be watching it on the little cabinet mounted TV in my parents kitchen as I roll endless rumaki and stuff countless mushrooms in preparation for my mother's 60th Birthday/Retirement party later that evening. Definitely not how I'd choose to watch the race for the Woodlawn Vase, but what can you do. Mom's only turn 60 once. So, without further ado, here is your Preakness pre-race analysis:
Preakness Stakes
When I started this analysis, Behindatthebar was one of my favorites for the race. However, it now appears he's been scratched because of a bruised foot. Alas, nothing can go right in this Triple Crown season. Thank goodness the Red Wings are still in the playoffs!
So, I've heard there's a horse named Big Brown in this race. Unfortunately, he makes the rest of the players look like amateurs. Undefeated in four lifetime starts, Beyer's consistently over 100, Kentucky Derby champion, blah-blah-blah. Let's just assume he's going in just about everybody's top spots and look at this as a race for second place.
Gayego (Gilded Time-Devil's Lake, by Lost Code) never had a chance in the Derby. He was one of the few horses in the race whose actual performance exactly matched what I had imagined in my pre-race mental constructions. Breaking from post 19, he was cut off by the rocket on his right and got lost in the shuffle of the 18 other horses on his left. He never got a chance to find his stride. But this time, he's on the outside of Big Brown. I think he perfectly represents the good horse with the horrible Derby trip, a not uncommon experience. And if anyone can bounce back from a bad prior performance and take Big Brown while he's busy planning his post-Preakness celebration, I think he's it. It's telling that his connections decided to keep him on the Triple Crown trail to threaten Big Brown when every other Derby starter flinched away to lick their wounds in the corner.
Another top contender, in my mind, is Giant Moon (Giant's Causeway-Moonlightandbeauty, by Capote). I loved this horse way back at the beginning of the season. He put in an awful performance in the mudddy Gotham (g.III), and though he managed to get up for 4th in the Wood Memorial (g.I), it was nothing spectacular. I can't say I really think he would have advanced much (or at all) on the top three Wood horses if given an extra 1/16th of a mile to run at them (which the Preakness would provide), but it did prove to me that his awful Gotham performance was not in the norm. I still like him, and he posted a bullet 4 furlongs in 47 and change on Tuesday to back me up.
I used to like Yankee Bravo (Yankee Gentlemen-Vicky Jane, by Royal Academy) too, but unlike Giant Moon, his recent disappointing performances have been...just that. Disappointing. No excuses. No signs of improvement. He's always there driving at the end, but without any apparent desire to make it there first. Of course, now that I've made this entirely arbitrary (and somewhat character based) assessment of him, he's probably going to do really well.
Tres Borrachos (Ecton Park-Pete's Fancy, by Peteski) made a good racde of it when he finished third behind Gayego and one of my Kentucky Derby favorites, Z Fortune, in the Arkansas Derby. But he likes to be near the pace, and if he does that in here that means he'll be butting heads with Mr. Brown (Mr. B? Big B? Double B? BB Gun? Seriously, Big Brown needs a good nickname). I think he'll lose that pissing contest.
My mom laughed at Icabad Crane (Jump Start-Adorahy, by Rahy) when he won the Frederico Tesio Stakes in an impressive stretch duel. She liked his name. She was an English teacher before she was an administrator and she used to teach American myths and legends to her high school students. I think it would be amusing for Mr. Crane to make an appearance for her retirement party. That and he's won over the Pimlico surface before. I think he pulled a good post position for his kind of running, and I think he was unlucky finishing 3rd in the Rushaway.
Kentucky Bear and Stevil both did pretty well in the infamous Bluegrass (g.I), finishing third and fourth respectively. But the winners of the Bluegrass turned out to be not all that come Derby Day (as I had predcited), so this doesn't mean too much. Mind you, the losers of the Bluegrass didn't turn out to be all that either (which I did not predict), and so I guess I can't really say anything about these two one way or the other. Macho Again is too inconsistent for me to back solidly. Racecar Rhapsody is...actually, I don't know why Racecar Rhapsody is in this race. Same with Riley Tucker.
Finally, Hey Burn (Put It Back- Restraining Order, by Skip Trial). He's been crushed by Big Brown before, but then who hasn't at this point? Before that he was a rapidly improving, rising star of the horse racing world. He came back from his Florida Derby (g.I) to do very well in the Holy Bull Stakes (g.III), admittedly against moderate company.
1. Big Brown (sigh)
2. Gayego
3. Hey Burn
4. Icabad Crane
Oh, and can I mention again how much I hate that they re-named the Sir Barton Stakes after Barbaro? Last year's inaugural winner (well, inaugural in that it was the first time the race had ever been run under its new name) was Chelokee, who was trained by Barbaro's former trainer, Michael Matz. Chelokee broke down in the stretch of the Alysheba Stakes on Oaks Day and is still touch and go. Do you see a pattern here? I think Barbaro, and all things associated with him, must be cursed. Do you know its bad luck to re-christen a ship? I think it may be the same thing with horse races.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Sunday, May 4, 2008
What can you say?
You can say that Big Brown is a true champion. That he overcame his inexperience, a deathly post position and the perils of overhype to win the day and immortality.
You can say that he deserved every once of press he received prior to the race, and he will deserve every iota thrown his way in the aftermath.
You can say that you hope to see him again in two weeks and, though you're not quite sure how things will fall out there, it would be nice to see him win again.
You can say you're sorry that a great filly had to die. That the absolute worst aspect of your sport...the part that makes even the die hard fans turn away with tears in their eyes...the part that makes the greatest critics of the sport justified in their anger...had to mar what otherwise would have been such a fine example of what makes racing great.
Alas, there's not really anything you can say after a race like that. Nothing that matter anyways. That there will be fallout of many kinds following this race is for certain. And it is one we will all remember. Not just for the way it was won, but also, for how it was lost.
You can say that he deserved every once of press he received prior to the race, and he will deserve every iota thrown his way in the aftermath.
You can say that you hope to see him again in two weeks and, though you're not quite sure how things will fall out there, it would be nice to see him win again.
You can say you're sorry that a great filly had to die. That the absolute worst aspect of your sport...the part that makes even the die hard fans turn away with tears in their eyes...the part that makes the greatest critics of the sport justified in their anger...had to mar what otherwise would have been such a fine example of what makes racing great.
Alas, there's not really anything you can say after a race like that. Nothing that matter anyways. That there will be fallout of many kinds following this race is for certain. And it is one we will all remember. Not just for the way it was won, but also, for how it was lost.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
D-Day
For years before I could legally drink, I threw a yearly Derby party. Once I could legally drink (okay, maybe a little before then) I started making mint juleps to fortify my friends through a long day of racing coverage. I learned very quickly that mint juleps suck. No seriously, I firmly believe that no one in their right mind would ever actually drink these horrors on purpose, were it not traditional. Long ago, they were a Southern "medicine", sipped on long back porches by invalids. Everyone knew back then that the worse medicine tasted, the more effective it was. And so why anyone would, in modern times, drink such a concoction for pleasure, continually eludes me. However, after years of trial and error, I finally managed to develop a mint julep recipe which, if not good, is at least palatable.
The key, apparently is good bourbon. During my years living in the student ghetto, I could not comprehend spending $30-$40 dollars on any form of alcohol, and that seems to have been the root of my problem. I now buy Woodford Reserve ($35), which is the official bourbon of both the Kentucky Derby and Playboy, so you know it has to be good. Now, without further ado, here it is:
Becky's Not Too Horrible Mint Julep Recipe
8 cups water
4 cups sugar
2 teaspoons mint extract
Bourbon (Woodford Reserve, or similar good quality)
Crushed Ice
Fresh Mint
Combine water and sugar in a large saucepan. Bring to a boil, stirring occasionally. When water is fully boiled, remove saucepan from heat and allow to cool. Add mint extract. Chill mixture for at least 2-3 hours (I prefer overnight). To make drink fill official 1973 Kentucky Derby mint julep glass with ice. Add 1 part bourbon to 2-3 parts mint syrup. Garnish with fresh mint.
In other news
- On my way home from work yesterday I called my parents, had them put the Kentucky Oaks on their TV, turn up the volume, and hold the phone close up so I could hear the race live. All the way around the track I was hearing my two favorites...Bsharpsonata and Proud Spell...neck and neck for the lead. Until the final furlong, when suddenly I didn't hear my girl Bsharpsonata's name being called anymore. At the wire, it was Proud Spell, followed by Little Belle and Pure Clan. Bsharpsonata was fifth. My co-worker, and man on the ground in Louisville, who had been calling and texting me all day for choices, was displeased. Luckily, I'd also told him to bet on Little Belle (who had also won on mud before). His wife had put her to show, so they won some money. Oh well, good job Proud Spell! Let's see if your stablemate can make it happen with the big boys today.
- On a much more somber note, yesterday Chelokee broke down in the stretch of the Alysheba. His rider, Ramon Dominguez, walked it off. Chelokee was thought to have broke his right front cannon bone and was vanned to Rood and Riddle equine hospital. It must have been like a nightmare replaying itself for trainer Michael Matz, who saw a very similar thing happen to his champion Barbaro two years ago in the Preakness. Chelokee, strangely enough, was also the inaugural winner of the Barbaro Stakes last year. Luckily, it turns out that Chelokee only dislocated his ankle, so it looks as though the tough colt will be all right.
- Hall of Fame trainer Frank Whitely Jr. died yesterday. Famous for training such greats as the ill-fated filly Ruffian, near Triple Crown winner Damascus, and three time Horse of the Year Forego, he will be missed.
The key, apparently is good bourbon. During my years living in the student ghetto, I could not comprehend spending $30-$40 dollars on any form of alcohol, and that seems to have been the root of my problem. I now buy Woodford Reserve ($35), which is the official bourbon of both the Kentucky Derby and Playboy, so you know it has to be good. Now, without further ado, here it is:
Becky's Not Too Horrible Mint Julep Recipe
8 cups water
4 cups sugar
2 teaspoons mint extract
Bourbon (Woodford Reserve, or similar good quality)
Crushed Ice
Fresh Mint
Combine water and sugar in a large saucepan. Bring to a boil, stirring occasionally. When water is fully boiled, remove saucepan from heat and allow to cool. Add mint extract. Chill mixture for at least 2-3 hours (I prefer overnight). To make drink fill official 1973 Kentucky Derby mint julep glass with ice. Add 1 part bourbon to 2-3 parts mint syrup. Garnish with fresh mint.
In other news
- On my way home from work yesterday I called my parents, had them put the Kentucky Oaks on their TV, turn up the volume, and hold the phone close up so I could hear the race live. All the way around the track I was hearing my two favorites...Bsharpsonata and Proud Spell...neck and neck for the lead. Until the final furlong, when suddenly I didn't hear my girl Bsharpsonata's name being called anymore. At the wire, it was Proud Spell, followed by Little Belle and Pure Clan. Bsharpsonata was fifth. My co-worker, and man on the ground in Louisville, who had been calling and texting me all day for choices, was displeased. Luckily, I'd also told him to bet on Little Belle (who had also won on mud before). His wife had put her to show, so they won some money. Oh well, good job Proud Spell! Let's see if your stablemate can make it happen with the big boys today.
- On a much more somber note, yesterday Chelokee broke down in the stretch of the Alysheba. His rider, Ramon Dominguez, walked it off. Chelokee was thought to have broke his right front cannon bone and was vanned to Rood and Riddle equine hospital. It must have been like a nightmare replaying itself for trainer Michael Matz, who saw a very similar thing happen to his champion Barbaro two years ago in the Preakness. Chelokee, strangely enough, was also the inaugural winner of the Barbaro Stakes last year. Luckily, it turns out that Chelokee only dislocated his ankle, so it looks as though the tough colt will be all right.
- Hall of Fame trainer Frank Whitely Jr. died yesterday. Famous for training such greats as the ill-fated filly Ruffian, near Triple Crown winner Damascus, and three time Horse of the Year Forego, he will be missed.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
Final Analysis
All right, this is what it has all been about. All the obsessing. All the composing of witty blog posts while laying awake in bed. The dog earred Blood Horse copies. The scribbled upon past performance sheets. The sitting in the shower trying to determine whether or not Visionaire has the guts to really close that final furlong. The pedigree research. The near constant reading of other people's (much better) blogs.
Tomorrow is the Derby, and here is your pre-race analysis.
#1- Cool Coal Man (20-1)
.jpg)
This bay colt out of the first crop by former Horse of the Year, Mineshaft, is looking to be that's sire's first Triple Crown race winner. He's raced three times in 2008; the first was an easy allowance score, but he soon followed that up with a win in the Fountain of Youth (g.II), where he just held on to beat out one of my prior favorites Elysium Fields and co-Derby starter Court Vision. He finished 9th in the crazy Bluegrass, but even if we throw that debacle out, I still have some questions about his ability to run a mile and a quarter. Coming from Mineshaft, you'd think he would be able to handle it, but then he sure looked strained after the Fountain of Youth.
#2- Tale of Ekati (15-1)
This Tale of the Cat colt (out of the Sunday Silence mare, Silence Beauty) was a top colt in his 2 year old season, but has failed to really equal his juvenile form since then. He failed to fire in his first start as a three year old in the Louisiana Derby (g.II). His win in the Wood guaranteed him a spot in the Derby, but it's a questionable win at best. Despite having the pace set up for him perfectly, Tale of Ekati closed in a sauntering14 second final eighth of a mile, and only managed to beat the still game War Pass by half a length, despite the fact that War Pass had injured himself near the top of the stretch.
Anak Nakal, Indonesian for 'Devious Child', was a monster at two, but has failed to return to that form this year. He has never fared better than 5th place in his three 2008 starts, despite racing at 3 different tracks in an attempt to find a surface/atmosphere/competition mix that he could handle. That being said, there's no question this son of the former Belmont winner Victory Gallop, out of a Quiet American mare, will be able to go the distance. And he did put in a monster work last week over the Churchill surface, running four furlongs in 46 and 3/5.
#4- Court Vision (20-1)
Court Vision is by Gulch, who has previously shown his ability to get a Derby winner out of a Storm Bird mare with his son Thunder Gulch. Court Vision's dam is also by Storm Bird, and if that weren't enough to make you love his pedigree, his granddam is the consummate broodmare Weekend Surprise, a daughter herself of Secretariat and dam of leading sire A.P. Indy. Can you tell I love this horse's breeding?.jpg)
Though Court Vision has danced every dance this season, coming in third in both the Wood Memorial (g.I) and the Fountain of Youth (g.II), he's yet to cement himself into my heart with a win. He had every excuse in the world after the Fountain of Youth, going 7 wide on the turn and being kept much farther back at the start than he's used to. However, the Wood was set up perfectly for him, with War Pass bobbing heads with the rabbit specifically put in by Court Vision's trainer to push the pace, and he still couldn't threaten the first two horses at the finish (one of which was both exhausted and injured). Although I really (really) like Court Vision, and he has been training extremely well over the Churchill surface, his performance in the Wood has become my deciding factor against him. Now watch him go and win it all and make me hate myself forever.
Photo: EquinePhotoArt.com
#5- Eight Belles (20-1) 
#7- Big Truck (50-1)
The kiss of death for Pyro will not be his failure to get a placing (or even a good workout) from the Bluegrass Stakes (g.I). It won't be the fast pace put up by a Big Brown/Bob Black Jack combo. It won't be the track, whatever the state of the (real) dirt. No, it will be my undying affection for him.
Pyro had what was, in my opinion (and in several others' opinions as well, including that of Randy Moss) the most impressive prep race this whole spring. Yes, even more impressive than Big Brown's cruise to a 5 length win in the Florida Derby. Don't believe me? Just take a gander at the Risen Star (g.III) for yourself. Perhaps, in this 20th anniversary of Risen Star's near Triple Crown triumph, a winner of a race named in that classic colt's honor will take the roses on his behalf.
His breeding for this distance cannot really be faulted, though he may be a tad short on the underside. His Beyers may not be very impressive, but then he has never had to run any faster to beat out his opponents in the final eighth of a mile. He's split horses, he's slipped behind horses and run them down from the outside, he's raced well in mud, he's faced big fields and screaming fans, and he is tried and tested against the best of his generation. The only thing he's done wrong is run abysmally once on a synthetic track that wasn't in any way set up for his style of running.
Randy Moss asked recently which Pyro would show up on Derby Day: the victor of the Risen Star or the also ran of the Bluegrass? The truth is there is only one Pyro, the only question is whether even that will be enough to grab the roses.
#10- Colonel John (4-1)
If Pyro has done only one thing wrong this year, Colonel John has yet to make a single mistake. He won the Sham Stakes (g.III) in a stretch duel against the tough El Gato Malo. He followed that up with a win in the Santa Anita Derby (g.I) over the tenacious speedster Bob Black Jack which, to me at least, looked almost effortless. He's been getting steadily stronger all along. He's bred to go the distance, being by California's favorite son and two time Breeder's Cup Classic winner Tiznow, and he's bred to run on dirt. The fact that he's never given the real stuff a try is, to me, just a formailty. His work of 4 furlongs in 47 and change last week tells me he feels the same way. In his life, he's never been worse than second. You can say you don't think he'll win, but there's no way you can count this horse out of the money.
#11- Z Humor (30-1)
Z Humor, I have to admit, heads my list of horses that really shouldn't be in the Derby. His best race this year is a 3rd place in a questionable Illinois Derby (g.II), over a questionable speed favoring track, against questionable company. His sire, Distorted Humor, has recently been putting himself forward as the sire of the next century and his damsire, A.P. Indy, cannot be faulted as a classic producer. But other than his pedigree and a couple nice races at two (including a Breeder's Cup Juvenile performance where he cruised home in the slop to a 5th place almost 20 lengths behind the winner), what's there to say about him? How about 'What have you done for me lately?'
#12- Smooth Air (20-1)
One week ago today, Smooth Air's connections were terrified their feverish colt wouldn't make it into the Derby field. Now, one week, some antibiotics and a couple of easy works later, he's chomping at the bit. Although not bred to go the traditional distance, he's not slacked off in his two mile and 1/8 starts this year; finishing a solid thid in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and a not to be ignored second behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby (g.I). Not to be overlooked is the fact that he's two for two over sloppy tracks (though both were, notably, sprint races); and the heavens look to open up on Derby Day.
#13- Bob Black Jack (20-1)
Bob Black Jack is a speed demon. Current holder of the world record mark for 6.5 furlongs, he will blow you by if he gets a track fast enough. The question is, what kind of track will he have on Saturday? Like so many starters this year, he's never felt real dirt beneath his feet. He's certainly never felt the cuppy, energy slagging pull of mud. And can he carry that blazing speed for the full mile and a quarter? I'll tell you, looking at his breeding and figures, I was shocked to see him hold on for third in the mile and 1/16 San Felipe Stakes (g.II). I was still more surprised to see him dig in gamely during the stretch of the mile and 1/8 Santa Anita Derby (g.I), to finish second behind Colonel John. If he makes it all the way around the Churchill Downs oval I'll be surprised once again, but you cannot deny this horse has grit. And that, plus speed, is what the Derby is all about.
#14- Monba (15-1)
Monba had a horrible trip in the Fountain of Youth (g.II). He was squeezed, battered, stepped on, and came home bleeding. If that's not an excuse for his 12th place finish, I don't know what is. He then followed this performance up with a stylish win in the Bluegrass Stakes (g.I). But that was over polytrack, and may just be his grass roots showing.
Monba's sire Maria's Mon is, usually, known as a grass sire (though he proved his ability to get a Derby horse when Monarchos took the 2001 Derby in the fastest running time since 1973). Additionally, Monba's got Derby performer and Belmont Stakes winner Easy Goer as his damsire. So there's no genetic reason he couldn't run well on dirt. But on Bluegrass day when all the classy traditional dirt horses failed, Monba and his stablemate (and consummate grass performer) Cowboy Cal carried the day. I'm sorry, that's a bit too much of a coincidence for me. Toss that race out, there's not much left to say about Monba.
#15- Adriano (30-1)
Adriano's trainer was quoted this week as saying "I must be the only trainer in America with an A.P.Indy that can't run on dirt." It's a good point. Everyone has been saying that Adriano is a grass horse through in through. They cite his high front action, and the fact that he's only ever won on grass and synthetic track. But he certainly was driving in the fake dirt during his Lane's End Stakes (g.I) win. And really, there could have been many factors (like his far outside post-position) responsible for his 9th place finish in his sole dirt attempt.
Or it could just be that he's a grass horse.
#16- Denis of Cork (20-1)
Denis of Cork posted an easy win in his first stakes performance ever earlier this year in the Southwest Stakes (g.III), and he looked to follow that up with equally impressive wins in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby. But then his trainers decided not to put him in those races. They cited the fact that he's not the toughest of horses, and needed a bit of a break. So they found a little race several weeks farther on, which looked to have a field of only moderate quality (and thereby saved their horse from having to face the monsters that were War Pass and Pyro). The Illinois Derby (g.II) should have been a soft touch for Denis of Cork. It was not. He finished 5th in a performance that, if I were a track handicapper, I would label 'floundering'. On the Derby bubble for the longest time, he just sneaked into the gate because of Behindatthebar's late dropout.
#17- Cowboy Cal (20-1)
Cowboy Cal is a turf horse. There's no question here like there is for Adriano. His best performances have all been on turf. He got into the Derby based on his gutsy second place finish to Monba in the Bluegrass (g.I), run over synthetic track. His sire, Giant's Causeway, did his best running on grass, and has sired a significant amount of grass stakes winners. Add to all of this that he needs to be near the front, he grabbed the 17th post position, and that even then he still has 3 speedy horses to the right of him, and I think Todd Pletcher is looking at another bottom finisher this year.
#18- Recapturetheglory (20-1)
Two months ago, in his penultimate race, Recapturetheglory could barely manage a weakening and tired third in allowance company over the turf. One race later, and he's on top of the world, having triumphed in the Illinois Derby (g.II) over the likes of fellow Derby entrants Denis of Cork and Z Humor. He'll have to outrun more than those two pretenders, though, to win the Derby. He also has a solid sprinting pedigree to contend with, not to mention the other speed horses in the auxillary gate. You never know, this may be the year his flamboyant owners recapture the glory they had 20 years ago with Risen Star. If so, be ready for a winner's circle seranade. If not, it's back to the drawing board.
#19- Gayego (15-1)
Gayego was the only West Coast originator to head East to try both the real dirt and the eastern competition prior to the Derby, and he did not disappoint. After finishing a strong second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe Stakes (g.II), Gayego headed to Arkansas, where he showed that neither the dirt nor the competition in the east would give him any pause. His win in the Arkansas Derby, over a late closing drive by Z Fortune, was impressive. However, one might imagine the number two horse that day catching up to him, if given an extra furlong to work on the leader. And, with post 19 and a definite need to be at or near the lead, Gayego may not make quite as good an impression on the east coast socialites as he may desire.
#20- Big Brown (3-1)
Never has so much been said about a horse that has done so little. Although I hate to agree with Hank 'The Hammer' Goldberg on just about anything, I like his moniker of 'Little Beige' for this thoroughly overhyped colt.
Yes, he ran a darn impressive Florida Derby (g.I). His win seemed pitifully easy, and you cannot deny his Beyer's are the best in the field. Yes, he's won his races by a combined margin of 29 lengths. But really, what have those wins been over
In the Florida Derby he beat Smooth Air. Prior to that, he beat allowance horses, turf horses, who had all been switched to a dirt track because their chosen surface was flooded. Prior to that he broke his maiden...that was in September of 2007, by the way. His pedigree screams sprinting, his feet are questionable. His stellar performance breaking from the 12 post of the Florida Derby does not equate (in any way shape or form) to him being able to win the Derby from the 20 spot. The handicapper's comment after his third lifetime race says it all 'Drew away; greenly'. And his trainer, though understably awed by the horse which has given him his first real chance at the Derby, needs to keep his big trap shut.
If Big Brown wins tomorrow, I will say the nicest things about him that anyone can say about a horse. If not, I'll be smugly silent. Serves him right
1. Pyro
2. Colonel John
3. Z Fortune
4. Bob Black Jack
So eat your burgoo. Drink your mint julep. Let your eyes tear up to the strains of My Old Kentucky Home. This is what it's all about folks, the most eciting 2 minutes in sports.
Etiam delenda est Carthago.
Tomorrow is the Derby, and here is your pre-race analysis.
#1- Cool Coal Man (20-1)
.jpg)
This bay colt out of the first crop by former Horse of the Year, Mineshaft, is looking to be that's sire's first Triple Crown race winner. He's raced three times in 2008; the first was an easy allowance score, but he soon followed that up with a win in the Fountain of Youth (g.II), where he just held on to beat out one of my prior favorites Elysium Fields and co-Derby starter Court Vision. He finished 9th in the crazy Bluegrass, but even if we throw that debacle out, I still have some questions about his ability to run a mile and a quarter. Coming from Mineshaft, you'd think he would be able to handle it, but then he sure looked strained after the Fountain of Youth.#2- Tale of Ekati (15-1)
This Tale of the Cat colt (out of the Sunday Silence mare, Silence Beauty) was a top colt in his 2 year old season, but has failed to really equal his juvenile form since then. He failed to fire in his first start as a three year old in the Louisiana Derby (g.II). His win in the Wood guaranteed him a spot in the Derby, but it's a questionable win at best. Despite having the pace set up for him perfectly, Tale of Ekati closed in a sauntering14 second final eighth of a mile, and only managed to beat the still game War Pass by half a length, despite the fact that War Pass had injured himself near the top of the stretch.
Anak Nakal, Indonesian for 'Devious Child', was a monster at two, but has failed to return to that form this year. He has never fared better than 5th place in his three 2008 starts, despite racing at 3 different tracks in an attempt to find a surface/atmosphere/competition mix that he could handle. That being said, there's no question this son of the former Belmont winner Victory Gallop, out of a Quiet American mare, will be able to go the distance. And he did put in a monster work last week over the Churchill surface, running four furlongs in 46 and 3/5.#4- Court Vision (20-1)
Court Vision is by Gulch, who has previously shown his ability to get a Derby winner out of a Storm Bird mare with his son Thunder Gulch. Court Vision's dam is also by Storm Bird, and if that weren't enough to make you love his pedigree, his granddam is the consummate broodmare Weekend Surprise, a daughter herself of Secretariat and dam of leading sire A.P. Indy. Can you tell I love this horse's breeding?
.jpg)
Though Court Vision has danced every dance this season, coming in third in both the Wood Memorial (g.I) and the Fountain of Youth (g.II), he's yet to cement himself into my heart with a win. He had every excuse in the world after the Fountain of Youth, going 7 wide on the turn and being kept much farther back at the start than he's used to. However, the Wood was set up perfectly for him, with War Pass bobbing heads with the rabbit specifically put in by Court Vision's trainer to push the pace, and he still couldn't threaten the first two horses at the finish (one of which was both exhausted and injured). Although I really (really) like Court Vision, and he has been training extremely well over the Churchill surface, his performance in the Wood has become my deciding factor against him. Now watch him go and win it all and make me hate myself forever.
Photo: EquinePhotoArt.com
#5- Eight Belles (20-1) Who doesn't love a filly in the Derby? Especially a physically imposing grey filly on the 20th anniversary of Winning Colors' triumph. A number of people have pointed out that she lacks something that all three fillies to ever have won the run for the roses share, that being a previous race against colts. However, Rags to Riches had never raced the boys before the Belmont Stakes last year, and look what happened with her. Others question her ability to go the full mile and a quarter, given that she has never previously raced farther than a mile and one sixteenth. But she's from Unbridled's line, and I can't help thinking, from the way she runs, that she'll just improve with distance. Eight Belles has posted Beyers equalling the best of the boys' this year. She's dominated the girl's division. Putting her in the Oaks would be nothing more than a foregone conclusion. And maybe (maybe) she'll make history.
#6- Z Fortune (15-1)
Z Fortune just can't get any respect. He was undefeated in three starts going into the Risen Star (g.III) this spring, where he ran into a late closing wonder named Pyro. Trying to make a comback (and running to Oaklawn park to escape his nemesis), he finished a tired 5th in the Rebel Stakes (g.II). Making a last ditch effort, he chased Gayego in the Arkasas Derby (g.II), and after going waaaaay wide on both turns, still almost caught the flying west coast phenom. This spring has been a season of learning for him and, I will go out on a limb and say, a season for overall improvement. He's shown me exactly what I want to see in a blooming three year old. This year has been a litany of bad trips and excuses. Either he'll grow up and be a man on Saturday, or he'll slip into obscurity.
#7- Big Truck (50-1) Although not what one might call regally bred, or for that matter, bred in any way to go the classic distances, Big Truck proved his mettle earlier this year when he burst on the scene with a win in the Tampa Bay Derby (g.III), edging out Atoned and leaving a distressed War Pass in his wake. If one throws out his dismal performance in finishing 11th in the Bluegrass Stakes in his first time over synthetic track, he looks like nothing more than a steadily improving colt sitting on a monster race. And in the picture at left, he looks exactly like what I like to see in a racehorse: leggy, athletic, alert.
#8- Visionaire (20-1) 
Another horse not bred along traditional staying lines, Visionaire has been having something of a Cinderella season (the part before the slipper, anyways). He kicked in late in the Risen Star (g.III), a little too late to catch the flying Pyro and the hard knocking Z Fortune. He came back to shock sense into the New York horses, diving like a mud splattered hawk out of the cloudy Gotham (g.III) field to nip Texas Wildcatter at the wire. He, like so many others, failed to show up in the Bluegrass (g.I), but of all the quality horses embarrassed that day, he finished the best. Although very wide on the final turn, he still managed to finish 5th, and was gaining on the leaders at the end. I seriously considered betting him across the board, but my husband doesn't like him at all...and I do respect Mr. Blacktype's opinion.
#9- Pyro (6-1)
#9- Pyro (6-1)
The kiss of death for Pyro will not be his failure to get a placing (or even a good workout) from the Bluegrass Stakes (g.I). It won't be the fast pace put up by a Big Brown/Bob Black Jack combo. It won't be the track, whatever the state of the (real) dirt. No, it will be my undying affection for him.
Pyro had what was, in my opinion (and in several others' opinions as well, including that of Randy Moss) the most impressive prep race this whole spring. Yes, even more impressive than Big Brown's cruise to a 5 length win in the Florida Derby. Don't believe me? Just take a gander at the Risen Star (g.III) for yourself. Perhaps, in this 20th anniversary of Risen Star's near Triple Crown triumph, a winner of a race named in that classic colt's honor will take the roses on his behalf.His breeding for this distance cannot really be faulted, though he may be a tad short on the underside. His Beyers may not be very impressive, but then he has never had to run any faster to beat out his opponents in the final eighth of a mile. He's split horses, he's slipped behind horses and run them down from the outside, he's raced well in mud, he's faced big fields and screaming fans, and he is tried and tested against the best of his generation. The only thing he's done wrong is run abysmally once on a synthetic track that wasn't in any way set up for his style of running.
Randy Moss asked recently which Pyro would show up on Derby Day: the victor of the Risen Star or the also ran of the Bluegrass? The truth is there is only one Pyro, the only question is whether even that will be enough to grab the roses.
#10- Colonel John (4-1)
If Pyro has done only one thing wrong this year, Colonel John has yet to make a single mistake. He won the Sham Stakes (g.III) in a stretch duel against the tough El Gato Malo. He followed that up with a win in the Santa Anita Derby (g.I) over the tenacious speedster Bob Black Jack which, to me at least, looked almost effortless. He's been getting steadily stronger all along. He's bred to go the distance, being by California's favorite son and two time Breeder's Cup Classic winner Tiznow, and he's bred to run on dirt. The fact that he's never given the real stuff a try is, to me, just a formailty. His work of 4 furlongs in 47 and change last week tells me he feels the same way. In his life, he's never been worse than second. You can say you don't think he'll win, but there's no way you can count this horse out of the money.
#11- Z Humor (30-1)
Z Humor, I have to admit, heads my list of horses that really shouldn't be in the Derby. His best race this year is a 3rd place in a questionable Illinois Derby (g.II), over a questionable speed favoring track, against questionable company. His sire, Distorted Humor, has recently been putting himself forward as the sire of the next century and his damsire, A.P. Indy, cannot be faulted as a classic producer. But other than his pedigree and a couple nice races at two (including a Breeder's Cup Juvenile performance where he cruised home in the slop to a 5th place almost 20 lengths behind the winner), what's there to say about him? How about 'What have you done for me lately?'
#12- Smooth Air (20-1)One week ago today, Smooth Air's connections were terrified their feverish colt wouldn't make it into the Derby field. Now, one week, some antibiotics and a couple of easy works later, he's chomping at the bit. Although not bred to go the traditional distance, he's not slacked off in his two mile and 1/8 starts this year; finishing a solid thid in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and a not to be ignored second behind Big Brown in the Florida Derby (g.I). Not to be overlooked is the fact that he's two for two over sloppy tracks (though both were, notably, sprint races); and the heavens look to open up on Derby Day.
#13- Bob Black Jack (20-1) Bob Black Jack is a speed demon. Current holder of the world record mark for 6.5 furlongs, he will blow you by if he gets a track fast enough. The question is, what kind of track will he have on Saturday? Like so many starters this year, he's never felt real dirt beneath his feet. He's certainly never felt the cuppy, energy slagging pull of mud. And can he carry that blazing speed for the full mile and a quarter? I'll tell you, looking at his breeding and figures, I was shocked to see him hold on for third in the mile and 1/16 San Felipe Stakes (g.II). I was still more surprised to see him dig in gamely during the stretch of the mile and 1/8 Santa Anita Derby (g.I), to finish second behind Colonel John. If he makes it all the way around the Churchill Downs oval I'll be surprised once again, but you cannot deny this horse has grit. And that, plus speed, is what the Derby is all about.
#14- Monba (15-1)
Monba had a horrible trip in the Fountain of Youth (g.II). He was squeezed, battered, stepped on, and came home bleeding. If that's not an excuse for his 12th place finish, I don't know what is. He then followed this performance up with a stylish win in the Bluegrass Stakes (g.I). But that was over polytrack, and may just be his grass roots showing.
Monba's sire Maria's Mon is, usually, known as a grass sire (though he proved his ability to get a Derby horse when Monarchos took the 2001 Derby in the fastest running time since 1973). Additionally, Monba's got Derby performer and Belmont Stakes winner Easy Goer as his damsire. So there's no genetic reason he couldn't run well on dirt. But on Bluegrass day when all the classy traditional dirt horses failed, Monba and his stablemate (and consummate grass performer) Cowboy Cal carried the day. I'm sorry, that's a bit too much of a coincidence for me. Toss that race out, there's not much left to say about Monba.
#15- Adriano (30-1)Adriano's trainer was quoted this week as saying "I must be the only trainer in America with an A.P.Indy that can't run on dirt." It's a good point. Everyone has been saying that Adriano is a grass horse through in through. They cite his high front action, and the fact that he's only ever won on grass and synthetic track. But he certainly was driving in the fake dirt during his Lane's End Stakes (g.I) win. And really, there could have been many factors (like his far outside post-position) responsible for his 9th place finish in his sole dirt attempt.
Or it could just be that he's a grass horse.
#16- Denis of Cork (20-1)
Denis of Cork posted an easy win in his first stakes performance ever earlier this year in the Southwest Stakes (g.III), and he looked to follow that up with equally impressive wins in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby. But then his trainers decided not to put him in those races. They cited the fact that he's not the toughest of horses, and needed a bit of a break. So they found a little race several weeks farther on, which looked to have a field of only moderate quality (and thereby saved their horse from having to face the monsters that were War Pass and Pyro). The Illinois Derby (g.II) should have been a soft touch for Denis of Cork. It was not. He finished 5th in a performance that, if I were a track handicapper, I would label 'floundering'. On the Derby bubble for the longest time, he just sneaked into the gate because of Behindatthebar's late dropout.
#17- Cowboy Cal (20-1)
Cowboy Cal is a turf horse. There's no question here like there is for Adriano. His best performances have all been on turf. He got into the Derby based on his gutsy second place finish to Monba in the Bluegrass (g.I), run over synthetic track. His sire, Giant's Causeway, did his best running on grass, and has sired a significant amount of grass stakes winners. Add to all of this that he needs to be near the front, he grabbed the 17th post position, and that even then he still has 3 speedy horses to the right of him, and I think Todd Pletcher is looking at another bottom finisher this year.
#18- Recapturetheglory (20-1)
Two months ago, in his penultimate race, Recapturetheglory could barely manage a weakening and tired third in allowance company over the turf. One race later, and he's on top of the world, having triumphed in the Illinois Derby (g.II) over the likes of fellow Derby entrants Denis of Cork and Z Humor. He'll have to outrun more than those two pretenders, though, to win the Derby. He also has a solid sprinting pedigree to contend with, not to mention the other speed horses in the auxillary gate. You never know, this may be the year his flamboyant owners recapture the glory they had 20 years ago with Risen Star. If so, be ready for a winner's circle seranade. If not, it's back to the drawing board.
#19- Gayego (15-1)Gayego was the only West Coast originator to head East to try both the real dirt and the eastern competition prior to the Derby, and he did not disappoint. After finishing a strong second to Georgie Boy in the San Felipe Stakes (g.II), Gayego headed to Arkansas, where he showed that neither the dirt nor the competition in the east would give him any pause. His win in the Arkansas Derby, over a late closing drive by Z Fortune, was impressive. However, one might imagine the number two horse that day catching up to him, if given an extra furlong to work on the leader. And, with post 19 and a definite need to be at or near the lead, Gayego may not make quite as good an impression on the east coast socialites as he may desire.
#20- Big Brown (3-1)
Never has so much been said about a horse that has done so little. Although I hate to agree with Hank 'The Hammer' Goldberg on just about anything, I like his moniker of 'Little Beige' for this thoroughly overhyped colt.
Yes, he ran a darn impressive Florida Derby (g.I). His win seemed pitifully easy, and you cannot deny his Beyer's are the best in the field. Yes, he's won his races by a combined margin of 29 lengths. But really, what have those wins been over
In the Florida Derby he beat Smooth Air. Prior to that, he beat allowance horses, turf horses, who had all been switched to a dirt track because their chosen surface was flooded. Prior to that he broke his maiden...that was in September of 2007, by the way. His pedigree screams sprinting, his feet are questionable. His stellar performance breaking from the 12 post of the Florida Derby does not equate (in any way shape or form) to him being able to win the Derby from the 20 spot. The handicapper's comment after his third lifetime race says it all 'Drew away; greenly'. And his trainer, though understably awed by the horse which has given him his first real chance at the Derby, needs to keep his big trap shut.
If Big Brown wins tomorrow, I will say the nicest things about him that anyone can say about a horse. If not, I'll be smugly silent. Serves him right
1. Pyro
2. Colonel John
3. Z Fortune
4. Bob Black Jack
So eat your burgoo. Drink your mint julep. Let your eyes tear up to the strains of My Old Kentucky Home. This is what it's all about folks, the most eciting 2 minutes in sports.
Etiam delenda est Carthago.
Almost like Christmas
Seriously finding it hard to concentrate what with all the Derby buzz going around.
-Smooth Air finally worked today, and seems to have come out of his slight sickness last week A-Ok. Although he didn't exactly set the track on fire, one wouldn't really want him to really push himself this close to the race. I think he's got a good chance, especially if the precipitation level is high on Derby day.
- Big Brown, whose trainer is quite possibly the most arrogant person I've ever come across, rebounded from said trainer's surprising choice of post 20 (otherwise known as the Post of Death) for his horse this morning with a true pre-race blowout. The colt went 3 furlongs in a smooth 35 and 2/5th's. Remember what I said above about not wanting horses to tire themselves out just before the big race, well, even Big Brown's trainer has to admit that this was a little faster than he wanted his boy to run. So, let's do a pro/con comparison for Big Brown
Pro-
Unbeaten
Huge margins of victory in his wins
Ran a 110 Beyer in the Florida Derby
Wow...not too shabby. That, you would think, would be a horse worth another look. Now the Con's.
Con-
Only raced 3 times in his life (handicapper's comment from his last race, "greenly")
Beat Smooth Air in the Florida Derby, and that's about it
Pedigree says sprinting all the way
Chronic hoof issues
Inbred 3x3 to Northern Dancer, 3x4 to Damascus
Starting from post of death
Had a perhaps too fast blowout 2 days before the Derby
Morning line odds of 3-1
Nemisis fluttering about his head with a nasty gleam in her eye (trainer apparently has no concept of hubris)
In fencing terms, it looks to me like Big Brown is running on negative 6 indicators. Go ahead and bet him...if you're crazy.
-Smooth Air finally worked today, and seems to have come out of his slight sickness last week A-Ok. Although he didn't exactly set the track on fire, one wouldn't really want him to really push himself this close to the race. I think he's got a good chance, especially if the precipitation level is high on Derby day.
- Big Brown, whose trainer is quite possibly the most arrogant person I've ever come across, rebounded from said trainer's surprising choice of post 20 (otherwise known as the Post of Death) for his horse this morning with a true pre-race blowout. The colt went 3 furlongs in a smooth 35 and 2/5th's. Remember what I said above about not wanting horses to tire themselves out just before the big race, well, even Big Brown's trainer has to admit that this was a little faster than he wanted his boy to run. So, let's do a pro/con comparison for Big Brown
Pro-
Unbeaten
Huge margins of victory in his wins
Ran a 110 Beyer in the Florida Derby
Wow...not too shabby. That, you would think, would be a horse worth another look. Now the Con's.
Con-
Only raced 3 times in his life (handicapper's comment from his last race, "greenly")
Beat Smooth Air in the Florida Derby, and that's about it
Pedigree says sprinting all the way
Chronic hoof issues
Inbred 3x3 to Northern Dancer, 3x4 to Damascus
Starting from post of death
Had a perhaps too fast blowout 2 days before the Derby
Morning line odds of 3-1
Nemisis fluttering about his head with a nasty gleam in her eye (trainer apparently has no concept of hubris)
In fencing terms, it looks to me like Big Brown is running on negative 6 indicators. Go ahead and bet him...if you're crazy.
Betting the Derby/Oaks
I have never bet the Derby. Or the Oaks for that matter. I've never gone, I don't support off-track betting establishments, and I've never been so lucky as to be at an actual race-track on the First Saturday in May. Putting $1 into an office and/or Derby party pool does not count. But this year....this year I have a friend going to the Derby. In repayment for my equine advice to him, and my explaining of how to read a past performance chart, he is willing to put some bets down for me while he's there. As such, for the first time in my life, I've had to think beyond who I think (want) to win and concentrate on what might actually make a profitable bet. He's leaving this afternoon for the rolling green hills of Kentucky, so I've had to set down my bets right quick. Here's what I've decided to spend a whole whopping $20 (it's all I would allow myself) on:
Kentucky Oaks-
$2 on Bsharpsonata to win
$2 exacta box of Bsharpsonata and Proud Spell
Kentucky Derby-
$2 on Pyro to win
$1 trifecta box of Pyro, Colonel John and Z Fortune
$2 on Smooth Air across the board
And yes n00bs, that actually does come to $20. Betting is weird like that.
I've instructed my friend to not cash the $2 win ticket in the incredibly unlikely event that Pyro actually wins the Derby. That ticket would be more precious to me than gold, and certainly worth more to me sentimentally than whatever payout Pyro would have.
Kentucky Oaks-
$2 on Bsharpsonata to win
$2 exacta box of Bsharpsonata and Proud Spell
Kentucky Derby-
$2 on Pyro to win
$1 trifecta box of Pyro, Colonel John and Z Fortune
$2 on Smooth Air across the board
And yes n00bs, that actually does come to $20. Betting is weird like that.
I've instructed my friend to not cash the $2 win ticket in the incredibly unlikely event that Pyro actually wins the Derby. That ticket would be more precious to me than gold, and certainly worth more to me sentimentally than whatever payout Pyro would have.
Make it so
And here you have it! The final entrants and morning line odds for the 2008 Kentucky Derby (by post position).
Gentlemen, start your betting.
1. Cool Coal Man 20-1
2. Tale of Ekati 15-1
3. Anak Nakal 30-1
4. Court Vision 20-1
5. Eight Belles 15-1 20-1
6. Z Fortune 15-1
7. Big Truck 50-1
8. Visionaire 20-1
9. Pyro 6-1
10. Colonel John 4-1
11. Z Humor 30-1
12. Smooth Air 20-1
13. Bob Black Jack 20-1
14. Monba 15-1
15. Adriano 30-1
16. Denis of Cork 20-1
17. Cowboy Cal 20-1
18. Recapturetheglory 20-1
19. Gayego 15-1
20. Big Brown 3-1
Gentlemen, start your betting.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
